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wknd
notes

Wknd Notes
White Papers
Never Seen a Boom Like This

At the end, everything converges to financial flows

At the end, everything converges to financial flows
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Watching, Listening, Walking
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wknd
notes

Each Sunday morning for over a decade, One River’s CIO, Eric Peters, has published “Wknd Notes.” It is an unorthodox take on markets, politics, and policy that’s widely read across our industry and within global policy/political circles. Eric has written for as long as he has traded and the discipline is part of his investment process. Drawing on wide-ranging, multi-disciplinary research, historical study, and discussions with interesting characters throughout the world, Eric collects those things he finds most thought-provoking each week and distills them into a concise letter. At times the ideas and views are consistent with his own, but just as often, they challenge his positions and it is this openness to opposing views that helps him maintain a flexible mind in the search for emerging opportunities and risks. His writing is a reflection of how he thinks, and as such it is as focused on identifying the right questions to ask as it is on seeking answers. The publication of this work is Eric’s way of exchanging ideas/information and developing dialogue with a network grown over his thirty-one-year career.

Never Seen a Boom Like This

October 04, 2026

“Biggie never seen a boom like this,” said Biggie Too, kicking off our convo in his favorite person - 3rd person. “Not even the railroad boom was underwritten by the government,” bellowed Biggie, Chief Investment Strategist for one of Wall Street’s too-big-to-fail affairs. “But let’s say Oracle CDS blows out to 450 next week, you think Larry’s gonna call Donny crying for help?” he asked, obviously not interested in my answer. “Biggie does,” said Too, flashing his golden grill. “And Donny’s gonna squeeze Larry’s little oracles, he’s gonna say: Intel gave me 10% Larry, so how much stock you gonna give Daddy?” The US gov’t has made $43bln so far on Trump’s Intel trade. “Then Larry takes the 10% deal and up goes AI again.”

Overall: Anthropic plans to caution potential IPO investors that advanced AI could pose “catastrophic or existential risks to humanity.” We love these sorts of warnings. Alan Greenspan alerted us to our irrational exuberance on December 5, 1996. The Nasdaq 100 fell 1% in about 5 minutes, then rallied 480% to the all-time dotcom high on March 3, 2000. Investors hate to be told what to worry about. And if a warning about a little irrational exuberance could power a nearly 500% Nasdaq rally, imagine where we go after being alerted to the existential risks we face for funding the Anthropic IPO. This could just be getting started. As the first mover in this IPO cycle, Dario is merely raising the risk of extinction. Sam Altman could outdo him and guarantee it. Not tomorrow of course, but out far enough in time that none of us honestly care. Kind of like the CBO long-term Federal debt forecasts. Or the fact that our sun will engulf the earth in 7.5 billion years. Anthropic’s IPO prospectus highlights that its AI models could exhibit “self-preserving behaviors,” including attempts to “resist shutdown,” to “conceal or manipulate information” and behavior “resembling blackmail.” Bullish for sure, but somewhat restrained, lacking in drama. No explicit references to the Matrix, George Orwell, or visions of America resembling an open-air Uyghur prison patrolled by Chinese-built Terminators. Dario can always save those for a secondary offering. Anyhow, inflation came in weaker this week, oil prices fell, the employment report was soft, the prior two months were revised lower, and the jobless rate increased. But 10-year bond yields continued their inexorable move higher as the demand for capital to fund our demise rose unabated. “Potential model awareness of our evaluation efforts creates a significant limitation on our ability to assess model safety,” added Anthropic, utterly desperate to make its historic IPO a success.

For Week-in-Review and Weekly & Year-to-Date market data, scroll to the bottom.

Alpha: “I’ve changed my view on how this cycle plays out,” said Alpha, a PM at one of the multi-managers. Early this year he saw the cycle driving strong growth and higher rates, but that things would slow into year-end as stimulus rolled off. “I underestimated it,” he admitted. “This is the biggest investment cycle the US has ever seen. Markets aren’t priced anywhere near where they need to be for this kind of phenomenon,” said Alpha. “I don’t see why it slows. Especially when you look out at what’s really coming down the pipeline in terms of the infra buildout.

Alpha II: “The lazy narrative was AI is going to be deflationary,” continued Alpha. “The masses are going to lose jobs, inflation will fall forever, interest rates will never rise.” Maybe someday, but not so far. “We haven’t even begun the AI output phase. We’re still in the input buildup. The real output of AI hasn’t even been felt,” he said. “I don’t think it comes in a meaningful way for a couple of years. The timelines are all mismatched. So sure, we could see a horrific 50% setback in the AI theme on the back of a Democrat sweep in Nov. But that would be a gift. You buy that.”

Alpha III: “The Dems may make a lot of noise, but nothing stops this buildout except hard constraints,” said Alpha. “If the Dems stopped this, the data centers would just move abroad.” Both parties know this is too strategically important to let that happen. “There’s sufficient US power supply until 2028. And capex look set to be $2-$2.5 trillion. That’s basically going to drive nominal US GDP to 7%.” Possibly higher if the consumer hangs in there. “So, this is going to be the ultimate crowding out trade. 10yr interest rates down at these levels are comical.”

Alpha IV: “You have to trade this theme and size it right given the likelihood of major setbacks,” explained Alpha. “I think these stocks are going to rally a thousand, two thousand percent. So, I kind of size accordingly,” he said. “Risk managers aren’t going to care if you’re down twenty or thirty bucks in a big risk off. But owning these AI names is like being long options.” If the stock price declines, your position automatically gets smaller. “As they rally, your positions can get bigger fast. That’s how you compound to very big numbers in this theme.”

Alpha V: “In the near term, token supply can only increase two to three times, but token demand is going to go up multiples of that,” said Alpha. “This is a bit like electricity. We just discovered it, and now we’re starting to figure out a few use cases for it.” With any luck, the killer app will be something more commercial than full-scale human extinction. “The industrial revolution lasted 100-years and had something like 4 major recessions to break it up. But that all happened before capital markets were as developed as today. This one is going to happen far faster.”

Anecdote: “We’ve always been aggressive users of technology,” he said, low key, understated, perched high above Wall Street, tens of billions of shares racing through his servers. “And we’d assumed for quite some time, that modelling - let’s say a million scenarios - would allow us to retain our lead in pricing risk, anticipating market movements.” With each passing year, his business has grown as all great firms do, compounding intellectual property, know-how, connections, capital. Reinvesting staggering sums of the ever-growing profits back into people, technology. “And as AI has accelerated, we started to ask ourselves whether there might be value in exploring what would happen above a million simulations - let’s say from a million to a billion.” I tried to envision a million different market scenarios unfolding in real time, recalculating continuously, endlessly. It’s not possible. A billion is utterly inconceivable. “It turns out, that a lot of good things happen from a million to a billion. And the best way of measuring that is by looking at our profit margins expand.” The frontier labs are approaching ten trillion parameter models. Throw a couple hundred PhDs and quantitative analysts at these LLMs, billions of dollars in budget, and remarkable things start to happen. “I can’t help but wonder what generating alpha looks like in this world that we’re entering, with this much compute and so many intelligent people searching for ways to make better prices, more profit. But it appears that the multi-strategy firms are beginning to have a more difficult time generating the kinds of returns they used to.” Multi-strategy hedge funds are also increasingly crowding, leveraging, and this exposes them to the risk of an abrupt gap in the markets. Which is just the kind of rare but profoundly impactful event that AI is poor at pricing. “And my instinct tells me that what we’re doing here is an important part of the explanation for their struggles.”

Good luck out there,

Eric Peters

Chief Investment Officer

One River Asset Management

Week-in-Review: Mon: Treasury selloff deepens after Trump rejects Iran’s latest proposal. US Treasury Department took a step towards curbing investment strategies that cut tax bills, with a notice signaling potential action on tactics and a ruling that will limit the benefits of a popular ETF maneuver. S&P -0.8%. Tue: US Conf Board Cons Conf 81.9 (89.0e). Iran officials privately expressed pessimism about reaching a deal to end hostilities and reopen the Strait ahead of US midterms. US 30-year Treasury yield rises to highest level since 2002. Trump shot down the idea of new federal regulations on AI, opting for voluntary audits following lunch with top AI executives. S&P -0.2%. Wed: Trump says Powell should be forced to resign from Fed Board over renovation costs after the Fed’s office of the inspector general report found failures but no criminal grounds. CCC debt turns distressed for the first time since the 2023 regional bank crisis.  S&P -0.3%. Thu: US init jobless claims 197k (200k e). The Pentagon deploys an additional aircraft carrier and 10,000 troops to Mideast. Anthropic targets IPO before Thanksgiving. S&P +0.2%. Fri: US change in nonfarm payrolls 29k (90ke), unemp rate 4.2% (4.1%e). Trump is expected to name US Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton as his next artificial intelligence czar. CME shelves plans for 24/7 oil contract amid industry qualms. Oil falls as G7 agrees to release 100M barrels of diesel and crude. S&P +0.7%. Sat/Sun: I turn 60!

Weekly Close: S&P 500 -0.3% and VIX +0.44 at +15.31. Nikkei +2.9%, Shanghai -1.2%, Euro Stoxx -1.1%, Bovespa +4.7%, MSCI World -1.3%, MSCI Emerging -1.3%, Bitcoin +0.2%, and Ethereum -1.0%. USD rose +2.9% vs Chile, +2.7% vs Mexico, +2.1% vs South Africa, +1.2% vs Sweden, +1.2% vs Euro, +1.0% vs Australia, +0.8% vs Canada, +0.6% vs Brazil, +0.5% vs India, +0.4% vs Turkey, +0.4% vs Yen, and flat vs Sterling. USD fell -0.3% vs Russia, -0.1% vs China, and -0.1% vs Indonesia. Gold -3.7%, Silver -6.8%, Oil (WTI) -1.4%, Oil (Brent) +5.4%, NatGas (US) -5.9%, NatGas (EU) +4.0%, Power (EU) +3.6%, Copper -3.2%, Iron Ore -1.3%, Corn -5.8%. 10yr Inflation Breakevens (EU -6bps at 2.19%, US +3bps at 2.36%, JP -2bps at 2.20%, and UK -4bps at 3.44%). 2yr Notes -3bps at 4.83% and 10yr Notes +11bps at 5.27%.

Sept Monthly Close: S&P 500 -0.5% and VIX +1.42 at +16.34. Nikkei +0.7%, Shanghai -3.6%, Euro Stoxx -2.5%, Bovespa +5.0%, MSCI World -1.3%, MSCI Emerging -0.8%, Bitcoin +5.9%, and Ethereum +7.7%. USD rose +6.3% vs Mexico, +4.5% vs Sweden, +4.3% vs Chile, +3.2% vs Australia, +2.7% vs Canada, +2.5% vs Euro, +2.1% vs Sterling, +1.9% vs South Africa, +1.6% vs Turkey, +0.8% vs Indonesia, and +0.7% vs India. USD fell -3.1% vs Russia, -1.5% vs Yen, -0.2% vs China, and -0.2% vs Brazil. Gold -6.6%, Silver -9.6%, Oil (WTI) +7.6%, Oil (Brent) +10.9%, NatGas (US) -1.2%, NatGas (EU) +4.1%, Power (EU) +8.9%, Copper -1.0%, Iron Ore -5.4%, Corn -6.9%. 10yr Inflation Breakevens (EU +5bps at 2.21%, US +5bps at 2.37%, JP +14bps at 2.17%, and UK +12bps at 3.45%). 2yr Notes +55bps at 4.89% and 10yr Notes +54bps at 5.29%.

Q3 Quarterly Close: S&P 500 +2.0% and VIX -0.11 at +16.34. Nikkei -4.7%, Shanghai -6.2%, Euro Stoxx -1.1%, Bovespa +8.3%, MSCI World +1.6%, MSCI Emerging -1.0%, Bitcoin +42.9%, and Ethereum +69.6%. USD rose +6.2% vs Russia, +5.6% vs Chile, +5.1% vs Turkey, +3.3% vs Mexico, +3.2% vs Sweden, +1.2% vs India, +0.8% vs Euro, +0.3% vs Brazil, +0.3% vs Canada, and +0.2% vs South Africa. USD fell -3.2% vs Yen, -1.2% vs China, -0.4% vs Australia, -0.1% vs Indonesia, and flat vs Sterling. Gold +2.2%, Silver -0.02%, Oil (WTI) +31.7%, Oil (Brent) +34.8%, NatGas (US) -10.8%, NatGas (EU) +67.5%, Power (EU) +49.7%, Copper +4.5%, Iron Ore -4.7%, Corn +14.9%. 10yr Inflation Breakevens (EU +37bps at 2.21%, US +14bps at 2.37%, JP +16bps at 2.17%, and UK +33bps at 3.45%). 2yr Notes +71bps at 4.89% and 10yr Notes +82bps at 5.29%.

Year-to-Date Close: S&P 500 +11.8% and VIX +1.39 at +16.34. Nikkei +32.6%, Shanghai -3.2%, Euro Stoxx +7.2%, Bovespa +15.6%, MSCI World +10.7%, MSCI Emerging +21.4%, Bitcoin -4.1%, and Ethereum -9.8%. USD rose +14.1% vs Turkey, +8.7% vs Sweden, +8.2% vs Chile, +7.1% vs Indonesia, +6.6% vs India, +5.9% vs Russia, +3.7% vs Canada, +3.7% vs Euro, +1.6% vs Sterling, +0.4% vs Yen, and +0.3% vs Mexico. USD fell -5.5% vs Brazil, -4.0% vs China, -3.9% vs Australia, and -0.8% vs South Africa. Gold -6.9%, Silver -16.9%, Oil (WTI) +58.9%, Oil (Brent) +62.8%, NatGas (US) -24.2%, NatGas (EU) +163.3%, Power (EU) +83.7%, Copper +12.0%, Iron Ore -12.4%, Corn +8.7%. 10yr Inflation Breakevens (EU +46bps at 2.21%, US +12bps at 2.37%, JP +40bps at 2.17%, and UK +51bps at 3.45%). 2yr Notes +141bps at 4.89% and 10yr Notes +112bps at 5.29%.

YTD Equity Index Returns: Korea +77.9% priced in US dollars (+66.2% priced in won), Taiwan +65% priced in US dollars (+67.4% priced in Taiwan dollars), Colombia +40.4% priced in US dollars (+21.6% in pesos), Japan +34.4% in dollars (+35.7% in yen), Norway +29.2% in dollars (+23.3% in kronor), Hungary +26.3% (+26.1%), Brazil +25.2% (+19.2%), Singapore +22% (+21.3%), Poland +21.4% (+31.6%), Austria +20.8% (+26.1%), Greece +19.2% (+24.3%), NASDAQ +17%, Thailand +16.7% (+24.8%), Israel +15% (+11.2%), Portugal +14.2% (+19%), Russell 2000 +14.1%, S&P 500 +12.8%, Netherlands +12.6% (+17.4%), MSCI World +10.5% in US dollars, Canada +7.7% (+12%), Italy +7.6% (+12.3%), Finland +5.8% (+10.5%), Spain +5.8% (+10.3%), Ireland +4.4% (+8.8%), Belgium +4% (+8.4%), Australia +3.8% (-0.4%), UK +3.6% (+5.3%), Sweden +3.5% (+13.1%), Euro Stoxx 50 +3.3% (+7.7%), China +0.9% (-3.2%), UAE -0.2% (-0.2%), Mexico -0.7% (+0.3%), Saudi Arabia -1.1% (-0.9%), Germany -1.3% (+3%), Vietnam -1.5% (-2.6%), New Zealand -1.6% (+1%), Switzerland -1.8% (+3%), Malaysia -3.6% (-2.9%), Turkey -4.8% (+9%), Chile -5.4% (+4%), France -7.1% (-3.1%), HK -7.2% (-6.5%), South Africa -7.3% (-6.7%), Czech Republic -7.6% (-2.6%), Denmark -10.4% (-6.3%), Philippines -12.6% (-7%), Argentina -13.5% (-9.3%), India -19.9% (-14.2%), Indonesia -34.8% (-30.2%).

Disclaimer: All characters and events contained herein are entirely fictional. Even those things that appear based on real people and actual events are products of the author’s imagination. Any similarity is merely coincidental. The numbers are unreliable. The statistics too. Consequently, this message does not contain any investment recommendation, advice, or solicitation of any sort for any product, fund or service. The views expressed are strictly those of the author, even if often times they are not actually views held by the author, or directly contradict those views genuinely held by the author. And the views may certainly differ from those of any firm or person that the author may advise, converse with, or otherwise be associated with. Lastly, any inappropriate language, innuendo or dark humor contained herein is not specifically intended to offend the reader. And besides, nothing could possibly be more offensive than the real-life actions of the inept policy makers, corrupt elected leaders and short, paranoid dictators who infest our little planet. Yet we suffer their indignities every day. Oh yeah, past performance is not indicative of future returns.

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