Hope all goes well… Packed the U-Haul to the absolute limit Friday evening. Hitched it to Liv’s Chevy pickup, its bed filled with camouflaged packs, boots, books, a dresser, pots and pictures. “On the road ahead of schedule,” said Liv at 3:55am, the two of us rolling out of our driveway. She had me listen to a podcast on leadership from a decorated 1st Lieutenant who served in Afghanistan. Her favorite few chapters from The Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy. A lecture given by Ayn Rand on Objectivism. And we talked and talked. Our road trip flew by in just under 15 hours. Her first apartment. Her new branch, cyber warfare. Liv’s great adventure begun.
I take late summer off from writing for time with family, reading, altitude, solitude. Wishing the same for you. Dusted off an Anecdote from 2012 about adventure (see below). All the very best, Eric
For Week-in-Review and Weekly & Year-to-Date market data, scroll to the bottom.
Anecdote (Sept 2012): “Daddy gave me an amazing day,” announced Olivia, beaming, sparkling, as we walked through the front door, returning from our adventure. Mara snuck me a wink and gave her a big hug. You see, our children celebrate their birthdays by choosing an adventure. Olivia chose to climb Dragon’s Back -- a steep ascent, along a remote, jagged ridge, high above Santa Barbara. The eagerly awaited day had at last arrived, and the two of us set off, in scorching Indian-summer heat. Our dog Wolfie joined too, seeking shadows, shade, panting. A third of the way up, Olivia’s face turned red, flushed. Overheated. So, I told her we could turn back, do it another day, the mountain is always there. “We’re not quitting, I’m 9 now.” Onward we climbed. I mentioned that Wolfie was struggling, maybe we should turn back. “He’ll be ok,” said Olivia, emptying her water bottle on his head. So, I redirected conversation. To the seasons. Pointing to brittle twigs, that had once been soft wildflowers. And in months, will again be lush, delicate, radiant. To austere cacti, darting lizards, circling hawks. Attune to their environments. In harmony. I explained that to fight the seasons, the weather, prevailing conditions, is to invite unhappiness, misery, and worse. That this is true for every creature -- reminding myself that it applies equally to those who trade financial markets. And halfway up Dragon’s Back, we sat in the shade of a large rock, looking out to sea, talking about whales, their seasonal migration. I told my determined little girl it might be fun to head down, to body-surf with dolphins, the waves looked perfect, even from afar. That this isn’t quitting, it’s finding harmony. “Yeah Daddy, that sounds great,” she said, smiling. And we shifted course.
Good luck out there,
Eric Peters
Chief Investment Officer
One River Asset Management
Week-in-Review: Mon: China exports 27.0% (19.0%e), imports 36.0% (26.1%e). India CPI 4.38% (4.20%e). Singapore GDP 5.7% (5.5%e). Graham’s sister appointed to US Senate days after his death. Trump notifies Congress of new war against Iran. US Fed Reserve Governor Waller said policymakers may need to raise rates to tame core inflation. S&P -0.8%. Tue: US CPI 3.5% (3.8%e), Core 2.6% (2.8%e). China GDP 4.3% (4.5%e), IP 5.3% (4.6%e), ret sales 1.0% (-0.1%e). South Korea unemp rate SA 2.7% (2.8%e). Japan IP -2.1% (-1.7% prior). US Fed Chairman Warsh said policymakers have no tolerance for high inflation and share a commitment to restoring price stability. US launched airstrikes on Iran as tensions increase. S&P +0.4%. Wed: US PPI final demand 5.5% (6.2%e), emp mfg 15.6 (9.2e). Bank of Canada rate decision unch 2.25% as exp. South Korea BOK base rate 2.75% as exp. House passes Trump’s plan to make daylight savings time permanent. South Korea plans measures on leveraged ETFs driving surge in market volatility. Pentagon to screen testosterone of male troops, Hegseth says, with the slogan “High-T Department of War”. SpaceX shares fall below IPO price of $135 for first time as hype fades. S&P +0.4%. Thu: US init jobless claims 208k (217k e), cont claims 1805k (1818k e). UK IP 1.0% (1.3%e). Trump accuses China of election meddling. Eli Lilly strikes $3.8B deal for psychedelic drugmaker. S&P -0.5%. Fri: US UMich sent 54.4 (51.0e), IP MoM 0.1% (0.2%e). Eurozone CPI 2.8% as exp, Core 2.4% as exp. Trump to call Canadian Prime Minister Carney over wildfire smoke, threatens tariffs. Meta in talks to sell computing power to Anthropic. SpaceX in talks to sell computing power to Pentagon. Sixth day of US, Iran counterattacks puts ceasefire out of reach. S&P -1.0%. Sat: 2 US troops killed and 1 missing in attack by Iran in Jordan late Friday. US launches retaliatory attacks on Iran. Sun: Argentina and Spain in World Cup Finals match.
Weekly Close: S&P 500 -1.6% and VIX +3.74 at +18.77. Nikkei -6.4%, Shanghai -5.8%, Euro Stoxx +0.1%, Bovespa -2.3%, MSCI World -1.2%, MSCI Emerging -4.1%, Bitcoin +0.3%, and Ethereum +2.9%. USD rose +1.4% vs Russia, +1.3% vs Chile, +1.3% vs South Africa, +1.0% vs India, +0.4% vs Yen, +0.4% vs Turkey, +0.3% vs Mexico, and +0.1% vs Brazil. USD fell -0.9% vs Canada, -0.9% vs Indonesia, -0.4% vs Australia, -0.4% vs Sterling, -0.2% vs Sweden, -0.2% vs Euro, and flat vs China. Gold -2.3%, Silver -6.4%, Oil (WTI) +15.5%, Oil (Brent) +15.9%, NatGas (US) -1.0%, NatGas (EU) +18.0%, Power (EU) +3.0%, Copper -0.3%, Iron Ore +2.8%, Corn +1.4%. 10yr Inflation Breakevens (EU +9bps at 2.07%, US -1bps at 2.25%, JP flat at 1.91%, and UK +6bps at 3.21%). 2yr Notes -3bps at 4.18% and 10yr Notes -1bp at 4.55%.
YTD Equity Index Returns: Korea +57.5% priced in US dollars (+61.8% priced in won), Taiwan +43.2% priced in US dollars (+47.3% priced in Taiwan dollars), Hungary +31.4% priced in US dollars (+27% in forint), Colombia +28.6% in dollars (+11.1% in pesos), Norway +24.1% (+18.6%), Japan +22.6% (+27.4%), Thailand +21.5% (+30.1%), Russell 2000 +19.4%, Singapore +18.1% (+18.6%), Israel +16.9% (+11.4%), Austria +16.3% (+19.5%), Brazil +15.7% (+7.8%), Poland +14.6% (+21%), Turkey +13.1% (+24.1%), Greece +12.5% (+15.4%), Italy +12.3% (+15.4%), Netherlands +11.9% (+14.8%), Portugal +10.7% (+13.5%), NASDAQ +9.8%, S&P 500 +8.9%, Canada +8.9% (+11.2%), MSCI World +8.5% priced in US dollars, Spain +8.2% (+11%), Belgium +8.1% (+10.9%), UK +6.8% (+6.7%), Mexico +6.5% (+3.6%), Switzerland +5.9% (+8.1%), Australia +5.7% (+0.9%), Euro Stoxx 50 +4.9% (+7.6%), Sweden +4% (+9.2%), Finland +3.8% (+6.7%), Argentina +3% (+4.9%), New Zealand +2.7% (+1.1%), Saudi Arabia +2.2% (+2.2%), Malaysia +2.1% (+3.1%), Philippines +1.3% (+5.8%), Denmark +1.2% (+4.1%), Ireland +0.9% (+3.6%), Vietnam +0.2% (+0.2%), Chile +0.2% (+3.9%), France -0.3% (+2.3%), Germany -1.4% (+1.4%), UAE -2.1% (-2.1%), China -2.2% (-5.2%), HK -4.9% (-4.2%), South Africa -6% (-6.3%), Czech Republic -6.4% (-3.8%), India -13.1% (-6.9%), Indonesia -33.4% (-28.6%).
Disclaimer: All characters and events contained herein are entirely fictional. Even those things that appear based on real people and actual events are products of the author’s imagination. Any similarity is merely coincidental. The numbers are unreliable. The statistics too. Consequently, this message does not contain any investment recommendation, advice, or solicitation of any sort for any product, fund or service. The views expressed are strictly those of the author, even if often times they are not actually views held by the author, or directly contradict those views genuinely held by the author. And the views may certainly differ from those of any firm or person that the author may advise, converse with, or otherwise be associated with. Lastly, any inappropriate language, innuendo or dark humor contained herein is not specifically intended to offend the reader. And besides, nothing could possibly be more offensive than the real-life actions of the inept policy makers, corrupt elected leaders and short, paranoid dictators who infest our little planet. Yet we suffer their indignities every day. Oh yeah, past performance is not indicative of future returns.