One River Asset Management, LLC | Terms of Use

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wknd
notes

Wknd Notes
White Papers
Preparing for the Next Market Shock

wknd notes: The Paths We Share

wknd notes: The Paths We Share
July 04, 2026
Read more

wknd notes: Bessent/Warsh Coordination

wknd notes: Bessent/Warsh Coordination
June 27, 2026
Read more

wknd
notes

Each Sunday morning for over a decade, One River’s CIO, Eric Peters, has published “Wknd Notes.” It is an unorthodox take on markets, politics, and policy that’s widely read across our industry and within global policy/political circles. Eric has written for as long as he has traded and the discipline is part of his investment process. Drawing on wide-ranging, multi-disciplinary research, historical study, and discussions with interesting characters throughout the world, Eric collects those things he finds most thought-provoking each week and distills them into a concise letter. At times the ideas and views are consistent with his own, but just as often, they challenge his positions and it is this openness to opposing views that helps him maintain a flexible mind in the search for emerging opportunities and risks. His writing is a reflection of how he thinks, and as such it is as focused on identifying the right questions to ask as it is on seeking answers. The publication of this work is Eric’s way of exchanging ideas/information and developing dialogue with a network grown over his thirty-one-year career.

Preparing for the Next Market Shock

July 12, 2026

It has been over six years since the Covid collapse. With risk asset valuations at historic extremes, chronic budget deficits, and seismic geopolitical and societal shifts, demand for robust risk mitigation is rising. We’ve been expanding One River’s capabilities ahead of the next major market event. We just finalized the acquisition and integration of the LGT QIS risk mitigation business, and One River Switzerland is now open in Zurich [here]. At the same time, I closed my Coinbase chapter and split my One River CEO/CIO role so I can focus more fully as CIO on investments, risks, and opportunities. Patrick Kazley, who has done outstanding work here since 2021, is now One River’s CEO.

 

Patrick just published a Total Portfolio investor’s guide to building the perfect hedge [here]. While no perfect hedge exists, even strong but imperfect ones can help investors meaningfully outperform equities, while reducing downside volatility and max drawdowns along the way.

 

Overall: “President Putin said, ‘I would love to meet Zelensky in Moscow.’ And I said, ‘I don't think...you know, I have to put myself in his position. I don’t know that he’d go to Moscow,” said Trump, seated next to Zelensky in the Oval Office, the two of them discussing Russia’s war on Ukraine. “Maybe he would. Would you go to Moscow?” Trump asked Zelensky, putting him on the spot, cameras snapping away. “It’s difficult. There are a lot of Ukrainian drones there,” answered Zelensky, unable to suppress a smile. “That’s right,” said Trump. “It’s dangerous,” laughed Zelensky. Human beings really are the best. We can adapt to the sickest crap. And if we really can’t stop ourselves from killing one another, may as well start joking about it. Iran’s Larijani joked that the IRGC could take Trump out with a micro-drone while sunbathing at Mar-a-Lago. Trump told Fox News that it’s been a long time since he’s been sunbathing, “Maybe I was around 7 or so. I’m not too big into it.” It wasn’t long ago that the Iran war seemed like a big deal. It used to be that killing heads of state was taboo. And I can remember when people thought closing Hormuz would spark a global depression. Russia’s biggest industrialist, Andrey Melnichenko, warned of the potential for a horrifying outcome if Russia continues down its self-destructive path. I’m pretty sure he was hinting that Putin might use a tactical nuclear weapon if backed into a corner. I first saw a philosophical justification for a preemptive tactical nuke strike 2mths ago [here]. Apparently, now that humans have adapted to the doctrine of mutually assured destruction, our thermonuclear nukes have become a bit of a joke, because no one would dare ever use one. The VIX index naturally declined to 15. Which mechanically forces volatility-controlled investment strategies to take more risk. Lifting equity prices. Lowering volatility. Inviting volatility sellers. Just like every other late market cycle. After a while it honestly gets kind of funny.

 

For Week-in-Review and Weekly & Year-to-Date market data, scroll to the bottom.

 

Artificial Intelligence+: To break dependence on Western technology and drive a new era of growth, in 2024 Beijing explicitly categorized its industrial focus into: (1) Six Future Industries (long-term, frontier technologies) and (2) Six Emerging Pillar Industries (near-term economic drivers). Then in Aug 2025, Beijing formalized an “Artificial Intelligence+” initiative, which treats AI as foundational, cross-cutting tech - like electricity or infrastructure - rather than a standalone sector. The initiative emphasizes deep AI integration across The Sixes.

 

Artificial Intelligence+ II: The Six Future Industries are frontier technologies that Beijing seeks to establish first-mover advantage and dictate global standards over 10yrs. China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology established six broad overarching categories (Future Manufacturing, Information, Materials, Energy, Space, Health). These translate into six specific priorities: Embodied Artificial Intelligence, Brain-Computer Interfaces, Quantum Technology, Hydrogen & Nuclear Fusion Energy, Biomanufacturing, and 6G Mobile Communications.

 

Artificial Intelligence+ III: The Six Emerging Pillar Industries are to drive immediate, massive economic output. Integrated Circuits: domestic semiconductor manufacturing to bypass US export controls. Low-Altitude Economy: drones, flying cars, and infrastructure to manage low-altitude airspace. Intelligent Robots: automation hardware for factories/logistics. Aviation and Aerospace: commercial spaceflight, satellite networks, domestic commercial aircraft. Energy Storage: advanced battery tech to support the grid. Biomedicine: advanced pharmaceuticals and medical equipment.

 

Ten Basis Points: “It’s going to be China or the US,” said the CIO, an American who built his firm in Asia, investing in equities, tech names, macro themes. “A European sovereign AI is a pipe dream – they think Mistral will be their LLM and they’ll build data centers? Really? How exactly?” he asked. “They need Nvidia. They need a tech stack that has emerged from American and Asian IP that combines to form these magical machines that you throw a model into.” To create intelligence. “And what happens to these nations that can’t afford tokens in the next few years? How do India and Brazil and all these second-tier companies even compete?”

 

Ten Basis Points II: “We’ve entered an era where the biggest of the big - Google, Microsoft, SpaceX, Tesla, even JP Morgan - will be accessing tokens in ways that is going to catapult their businesses ahead of everybody else,” continued the CIO. “This sort of faux debate over cheap open-source AI versus expensive Anthropic is nonsense. There’s a shortage of intelligence - pure and simple – we’re below ten basis points of market penetration in this stuff across the global economy, why are people even having a debate over this?”

 

Ten Basis Points III: “Given all the component shortages and constraints, and the anti-AI populist backlash, we could see a horrific market crash along the way, but we haven’t yet diffused this technology across the economy to the degree that it can be useful,” he continued. My Tesla drives me everywhere. I’m a super user, virtually alone. But in 10 years, no one will drive. “We have zero AI in a regulated processes within banks, healthcare companies and insurance companies because the errors and hallucination are being ironed out.” But they will be. “This could be the last great bull market in technology. What could eclipse superintelligence?”

 

Anecdote: “As we know the two principal players and their mentor, I take their words and actions as a serious roadmap,” said the CIO. We were discussing Bessent’s speech at the Economic Club of New York [here] and Warsh’s press conference following his first FOMC meeting [here]. “Much like the Chinese Communist Party 5-year plans, we’re glimpsing the future for American economic policy. Having watched the Chinese game the global trading system to the point that it broke leads me to believe it should be reassembled in Scott’s vision for something more equitable,” continued the CIO, an American who built his firm in Asia, investing in equities, tech, macro themes. “AI competition with China is also central to this strategy. It’s possible that like Reagan spending Gorbachev into the ground, we could cause the Chinese system to hit the wall.” Interesting. “Beijing’s national data center strategy is to build massive scale in token factories.” CXMT is their national DRAM champion and is about to IPO. Its disclosures reveal deep inefficiencies. Beijing will inevitably subsidize its losses. “Chinese open-source models are all the rage on Twitter. They’re not as good for complex thinking but very good at specific tasks and sub agent work. Therefore, as these models sit on US tech stacks, no Chinese innovator is making money - AWS makes the money for producing the token,” he said. “Having already sunk massive amounts into EV, Solar, and other areas, one day the Chinese may well hit a wall, especially given they have yet to tackle their property sector.” The chronic decline in Chinese property prices has caused a depression in domestic consumption. “If Scott’s strategy works and allied nations realize it’s better to play along then not, the Chinese export markets could become smaller precisely when they need them most. At the same time Taiwan, Singapore, Korea, and Hong Kong do stuff we need so we could work more diplomatically with them as they are no longer the Asian Tigers of our youth,” he said. “Let’s see how it plays out but it’s fascinating and why guys like us stay in the game.”

 

Good luck out there,

Eric Peters

Chief Investment Officer

One River Asset Management

 

Week-in-Review: Mon: Israel base rate 2.50% as exp. Thailand CPI 2.42% (2.70%e). Singapore ret sales 3.0% (4.7%e). President Xi Jinping agreed to free imprisoned pastor at Trumps request, showcasing an improved state of US-China relations. SK Hynix kicked off formal marketing process for $28B US listing. S&P +0.4%. Tue: US trade balance -$77.6b (-$78.4b). New Zealand official cash rate 2.50% as exp. Taiwan CPI 2.60% (2.32%e). Le Pen cleared to run in 2027 French presidential race. US military says it’s launching new wave of strikes against Iran after recent attacks on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. S&P -0.3%. Wed: China CPI 1.0% (1.1%e), PPI 4.1% as exp. Oil rises as US military launches strikes on Iran for second straight day. Meta to invest $10B to build first Canada data center. China to let top AI firms buy a limited amount of Nvidia H200 chips. S&P -0.1%. Thu: US init jobless claims 215k (217k e). Mexico CPI 3.37% (3.50%e). Japan PPI 7.1% (6.8%e). Japan urges its pension funds to invest in domestic assets. Fed Chair Warsh named leadership for five new task forces. Micron plans to increase spending on new plants in the US to $250B to meet demand for memory chips. S&P +0.6%. Fri: Canada unemp rate 6.5% (6.6%e). Apple sues OpenAI for trade secret theft. US demands Iran issue a public statement that the Strait of Hormuz is open to all ships. S&P +0.2%.

 

Manufacturing PMI (high-to-low): Sweden 58.3 (previous month 57.4), Netherlands 55.5 (previous month 55.9), Taiwan 55.2 (previous 56.1), Japan 54.8/54.5, Switzerland 54.3/57.3, India 54.2/55, Czech Republic 53.9/52.2, Greece 53.8/53.3, US 53.3/54, Canada 53/52.9, UK 52.5/53.9, Italy 52.2/52.9, South Korea 52.1/54.8, Hong Kong 52/50.4, Vietnam 51.8/52.8, China 51.7/51.8, Hungary 51.5/50.2, Mexico 51.3/49.6, Singapore 51.3/51, France 51.2/49.7, Austria 50.9/51.7, Brazil 50.8/49.1, South Africa 50.5/49.6, Germany 50.3/50.1, Russia 50.3/48.8, Spain 49.7/51.2, Turkey 47.1/49.8, Indonesia 46.9/50, Poland 46.1/49.4. Services PMI: India 57.4/59.8, Sweden 56.6/54.2, Spain 54.2/50.1, Ireland 54.2/50.8, China 54.1/54.4, Japan 52.2/50, Brazil 51.3/50.4, US 51.2/50.7, Australia 50.5/48.7, Italy 50.2/49.4, UK 48.8/49.3, Germany 48.6/48.1, Russia 48.2/48.7, France 46.8/44.3.

 

Weekly Close: S&P 500 +1.2% and VIX -0.78 at +15.03. Nikkei -1.7%, Shanghai -1.2%, Euro Stoxx -1.8%, Bovespa +2.2%, MSCI World +0.5%, MSCI Emerging -1.8%, Bitcoin +2.7%, and Ethereum +2.6%. USD rose +0.6% vs Indonesia, +0.5% vs South Africa, +0.5% vs Chile, +0.4% vs Turkey, +0.2% vs Yen, +0.2% vs Euro, +0.1% vs India, and +0.1% vs Sweden. USD fell -1.2% vs Brazil, -0.4% vs Sterling, -0.3% vs Canada, -0.2% vs Australia, -0.1% vs Russia, -0.1% vs China, and flat vs Mexico. Gold -0.3%, Silver -1.5%, Oil (WTI) +4.0%, Oil (Brent) +5.4%, NatGas (US) -8.0%, NatGas (EU) +7.9%, Power (EU) +1.4%, Copper +1.8%, Iron Ore -0.3%, Corn +4.4%. 10yr Inflation Breakevens (EU +8bps at 1.98%, US +2bps at 2.25%, JP -15bps at 1.91%, and UK +3bps at 3.15%). 2yr Notes +7bps at 4.21% and 10yr Notes +8bps at 4.56%.

 

YTD Equity Index Returns: Korea +70.2% priced in US dollars (+77.4% priced in won), Taiwan +52.8% priced in US dollars (+56.6% priced in Taiwan dollars), Hungary +35.3% priced in US dollars (+28.3% in forint), Japan +31.8% in dollars (+36.2% in yen), Colombia +29.8% (+11.6%), Thailand +21.5% (+28.7%), Norway +20.6% (+16.9%), Russell 2000 +20%, Brazil +18.6% (+10.4%), Austria +18.4% (+21.8%), Singapore +17.3% (+17.7%), Turkey +16.3% (+27.2%), Israel +15.9% (+9.4%), Greece +15.4% (+18.5%), Poland +15% (+21.3%), Italy +13.8% (+17.1%), NASDAQ +13.1%, Netherlands +11% (+14%), Portugal +10.8% (+13.8%), S&P 500 +10.7%, MSCI World +9.9% priced in US dollars, Spain +9.1% (+12%), Canada +8.2% (+11.3%), Belgium +7.3% (+10.2%), Mexico +6.6% (+3.4%), Finland +5.6% (+8.6%), Euro Stoxx 50 +5.4% (+8.3%), Australia +5.4% (+1.1%), UK +5.4% (+5.7%), Switzerland +5.2% (+7.3%), Sweden +5.1% (+10.2%), Argentina +5% (+7.5%), China +3.9% (+0.7%), Ireland +3.2% (+6%), Saudi Arabia +2.9% (+3%), Chile +2.8% (+5.5%), Vietnam +2.5% (+2.5%), New Zealand +1.8% (+1.8%), Malaysia +0.3% (+0.7%), France -0.3% (+2.3%), Germany -0.5% (+2.4%), UAE -0.6% (-0.6%), Philippines -0.7% (+3.9%), Denmark -0.7% (+2.2%), South Africa -4.1% (-5.6%), Czech Republic -5% (-2.2%), HK -6.4% (-5.7%), India -12.7% (-7.4%), Indonesia -36.6% (-31.5%).

 

Disclaimer: All characters and events contained herein are entirely fictional. Even those things that appear based on real people and actual events are products of the author’s imagination. Any similarity is merely coincidental. The numbers are unreliable. The statistics too. Consequently, this message does not contain any investment recommendation, advice, or solicitation of any sort for any product, fund or service. The views expressed are strictly those of the author, even if often times they are not actually views held by the author, or directly contradict those views genuinely held by the author. And the views may certainly differ from those of any firm or person that the author may advise, converse with, or otherwise be associated with. Lastly, any inappropriate language, innuendo or dark humor contained herein is not specifically intended to offend the reader. And besides, nothing could possibly be more offensive than the real-life actions of the inept policy makers, corrupt elected leaders and short, paranoid dictators who infest our little planet. Yet we suffer their indignities every day. Oh yeah, past performance is not indicative of future returns.

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