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wknd
notes

Wknd Notes
White Papers
At the end, everything converges to financial flows

The Paradox of Exposing Our Children to Risk

The Paradox of Exposing Our Children to Risk
October 11, 2026
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Never Seen a Boom Like This

Never Seen a Boom Like This
October 04, 2026
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wknd
notes

Each Sunday morning for over a decade, One River’s CIO, Eric Peters, has published “Wknd Notes.” It is an unorthodox take on markets, politics, and policy that’s widely read across our industry and within global policy/political circles. Eric has written for as long as he has traded and the discipline is part of his investment process. Drawing on wide-ranging, multi-disciplinary research, historical study, and discussions with interesting characters throughout the world, Eric collects those things he finds most thought-provoking each week and distills them into a concise letter. At times the ideas and views are consistent with his own, but just as often, they challenge his positions and it is this openness to opposing views that helps him maintain a flexible mind in the search for emerging opportunities and risks. His writing is a reflection of how he thinks, and as such it is as focused on identifying the right questions to ask as it is on seeking answers. The publication of this work is Eric’s way of exchanging ideas/information and developing dialogue with a network grown over his thirty-one-year career.

At the end, everything converges to financial flows

October 17, 2026

“If they go public and then there is a catastrophic safety incident, far beyond what we’ve seen right now, that would be terrible for their stock,” New York City Comptroller Mark Levine said of Anthropic’s coming IPO. “Much better to take a little more time right now and get this done,” Levine said, noting that his massive portfolio of index tracking equities would suffer. “Some people are making the opposite point. That if they delay their IPO, then that in itself could be a problem for the market,” Levine said. “I worry about going public and then having an incident.” And he’s both right and wrong. Because when the catastrophic safety incident eventually happens, it will utterly savage the market whether Anthropic is public or private.

Overall: “This car really sucks,” said Elon. His Tesla Roadster had completed a demonstration [here]. It drove up a massive, inverted ramp and hung ninety feet in the air, defying gravity using a mechanism that neither Porsche, Mercedes, BMW, nor Ferrari had ever dared to design. It’ll be standard on Chinese EVs within a month. “The Roadster has the sucking power to pull up to 2-Gs, which allows the car to go upside down,” said Musk. Across Europe, half a million kids burned down schools to get more school funding. Or something like that. No one really knows. “The suction allows the car to corner incredibly well, like you’re breaking physics. Acceleration, cornering, it will crush every record that has ever existed.” From the upside-down position, the Roadster raced off the ramp, at which point ultra-high-pressure boosters flipped it over and brought it to a soft landing. “We borrowed rocket designs from SpaceX. There are two in the car. 250 kilos of air. 10 nozzles do all the work. And the car can recharge the air tanks itself.” Houthis bombed Saudis. Iranians bombed tankers. Russians bombed Ukrainians. Bond vigilantes bombed CoreWeave. America’s innovators charged ahead, combining capital, intelligence, imagination and ambition. Compounding. “The Roadster does 0-60 in 0.81 seconds. The thrust exits the back of the four thrusters at greater than the speed of sound, so you see Mach Diamonds, creating over 80 kilonewtons of thrust.” I was about to check on developments in the dumpster fire called Britain, but I’d never heard the term Mach Diamond and got distracted [here]. “As we go into production, we’ll accelerate faster than that while honoring our rule: don’t detach the retina of the human in the car.” And I heard the domestic Chinese economy is sucking tailpipe. But I was curious how much 80 kilonewtons of thrust is, so I asked Claude. One query led to another, and I just never circled back.

For Week-in-Review and Weekly & Year-to-Date market data, scroll to the bottom.

Colosseums: “Classic late cycle,” said Sparks. “Beginning of the end, that’s what’s unfolding,” said the investor, entrepreneur, iconoclast. “At the end, everything converges to financial flows.” In every huge cycle, the last stage is Ponzi-like. “Who’s going to buy the last CDO? Who’s going to buy the last CDO-squared? How do those securities even work? That’s what happens in these cycles. The last securities to be issued are the most complex and hardest to understand. They’re the riskiest,” he said. “The cost of capital starts going up. This is how it always ends.”

Colosseums II: “You saw the Aussie data center IPO [here] that failed this week, right?” asked Sparks. “It’s their neocloud equivalent, like CoreWeave, it’s the type of sign we saw when the Bear Stearns hedge funds failed.” Summer of 2007. “Some of the marginal deals will not pencil anymore.” And that slows the whole machine down. “When that happens, investors go from the fear of missing out to the fear of holding the bag. That’s a process, it doesn’t happen overnight, but by the time these sorts of things are glaringly obvious, it’s too late, checkmate.”

Colosseums III: “When the process starts in earnest, it becomes self-fulfilling, irreversible,” explained Sparks. “That’s really the point in investing, finding processes that once set in motion lead to a predictable outcome.” Even if the timing remains uncertain. “Someone buys a bond that funds a Meta data center. Now it’s trading at 88 cents. And then you read Anthropic just offered Blackstone a yield of over 10% to fund its datacenter.” Four months ago, Anthropic funded at 8.5%. “So, you take your loss and the bond volatility into account, and you’re not eager to buy.”

Colosseums IV: “These dynamics slow the flywheel,” continued Sparks. “The greater fool theory starts to reverse and self-perpetuates.” I nodded. “Everyone wants to know exactly when it will fall,” he said. “On some level it doesn’t really matter, because once the process starts, you pretty much know stocks won’t massively blow through the highs.” The rough ceiling on the market is in place. “You don’t have to worry about the FOMO move that rips 30% higher and makes you look foolish. So, instead, you can build a portfolio for the sacking and looting ahead.”

Colosseums V: “Once the cost of capital rises for the weaker players, you crack the hidden pillars supporting the edifice,” said Sparks. “It’s like removing the little fasteners holding the structure together.” The Roman Colosseum flashed through my mind, its structure originally secured by 300 metric tons of iron clamps. But after Rome fell, thieves stole the metal, which in turn weakened the arena, and it succumbed to earthquakes [here]. “That’s why a major top is a process, it takes time to undermine the structure. And it all ends when the Generals are killed.”

Anecdote: “What do you want to accomplish in capitalism?” asked Sparks, not waiting for a response. “You want to spend as little money as possible to create the biggest monopoly you can. That’s literally all you want to do. Nothing more.” Fair point. “You can talk about adoption and demand curves all you want, and it’s not that they’re unimportant, but they tell you less about whether you have a good business and more about the size of your net worth as a monopolist.” Owning a big monopoly is better than a small one but having a baby monopoly is better than running a big business in a fiercely competitive industry with razor thin margins. “Everyone loves Amazon, but if you strip out its AWS and advertising businesses, it’s really just a retailer and logistics company, and those are generally low margin, capital intensive businesses,” he said. “And yes, there are some elements of Amazon retail that are monopolistic but compare it to Google - that’s a real monopoly, with massive margins.” Amazon’s retail business is probably worth roughly the same as Walmart at $1trln. Google is worth $4trln. “So what will these AI companies look like on the other side of this rapid build out?” Amazon retail or Google? “Even if you make the argument that everything in our economy will eventually be turned into AI tokens in one form or another, so that token demand will be explosive, why do you think that the frontier labs will be the real beneficiaries?” asked Sparks. “From the days when we first commercialized electricity to today, global usage has exploded. But owning utilities has not been the way to make your fortune.” Indeed. “The nature of this technology and the transformation of electricity into tokens looks a lot more like the utilities than something that will manifest into durable monopolies. And I think that as this cycle matures, if we survive as a species, we’ll find that the real beneficiaries will be the users of tokens, not the AI companies that manufacture them.”

Good luck out there,

Eric Peters

Chief Investment Officer

One River Asset Management

Week-in-Review: Mon: Trump’s diesel deal with Putin draws criticism from European officials and some Republicans. Hackers hit French supermarkets in attack by disabling fridges. Chip selloff sends South Korea’s chip-heavy equity benchmark down more than 7% at one point, as concerns about an AI bubble intensified. S&P -0.1%. Tue: China CPI 0.9% (1.0%e), PPI 5.0% (4.4%e). Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said he still sees one more interest-rate hike as appropriate this year but doesn’t “have any reason to believe that we would need to do more.” S&P flat. Wed: US CPI 3.7% (3.6%e). CoreWeave CEO says market is acting “irrationally” as shares fall 15.5% and bond yields near 15% on AI-debt fears. Iran fights rising militant attacks as US weighs resuming strikes. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy accuses Trump and Musk of restraining Kyiv’s military access to SpaceX’s satellite technology after Ukraine said SpaceX cut high-speed Starlink terminal functioning without warning. S&P -1.1%. Thu: US init jobless claims 199k (200k e), PPI Final Demand 6.3% (5.4%e). Trump rejects Defense Secretary Hegseth’s proposal to livestream firing squad execution. US reportedly considers use of “mother of all bombs” as Iran vows to fight on. S&P +0.3%. Fri: Eurozone CPI 3.8% as exp. Katie Zacharia is ousted after five days as White House Press Secretary. Anthropic quietly pitches its own AI safety bill to lawmakers. S&P -1.1%.

Weekly Close: S&P 500 -1.9% and VIX +5.15 at +19.99. Nikkei -5.4%, Shanghai -2.6%, Euro Stoxx +2.1%, Bovespa -1.7%, MSCI World -1.1%, MSCI Emerging -5.2%, Bitcoin -1.3%, and Ethereum -3.0%. USD rose +1.5% vs Brazil, +0.7% vs Indonesia, +0.7% vs Chile, +0.5% vs Australia, +0.4% vs Turkey, and +0.4% vs Mexico. USD fell -2.0% vs Russia, -1.8% vs India, -0.9% vs Sweden, -0.8% vs Canada, -0.7% vs Sterling, -0.3% vs Euro, -0.2% vs Yen, -0.2% vs South Africa, and -0.1% vs China. Gold -0.8%, Silver -6.1%, Oil (WTI) +10.4%, Oil (Brent) +4.9%, NatGas (US) -3.2%, NatGas (EU) +7.5%, Power (EU) +3.2%, Copper -1.8%, Iron Ore Flat, Corn -1.1%. 10yr Inflation Breakevens (EU flat at 2.23%, US flat at 2.35%, JP +7bps at 2.21%, and UK -3bps at 3.44%). 2yr Notes -8bps at 4.71% and 10yr Notes -17bps at 5.08%.

YTD Equity Index Returns: Taiwan +57.7% priced in US dollars (+62.7% priced in Taiwan dollars), Colombia +47.7%  priced in US dollars (+24.1% priced in pesos), Korea +45.2% priced in US dollars (+34.5% priced in won), Brazil +37.8% in dollars (+27.5% in reais), Norway +34.6% in dollars (+26% in krone), Hungary +32.9% (+31%), Japan +28.2% (+29.8%), Poland +26.1% (+36.7%), Greece +17.8% (+23.2%), Austria +17.5% (+23.1%), Singapore +17.1% (+16.6%), Thailand +17% (+24.9%), Portugal +14.9% (+20.2%), Netherlands +14.9% (+20.1%), Israel +14.5% (+11.7%), NASDAQ +12.5%, S&P 500 +11.9%, MSCI World +10.8% in dollars, Canada +10.6% (+14.1%), Russell 2000 +9.6%, UK +8.5% (+9.6%), Spain +6.8% (+11.7%), Sweden +5.9% (+14.4%), Italy +5.9% (+10.9%), Australia +5.2% (+1.1%), Belgium +5.2% (+10%), Mexico +4.6% (+7.2%), Switzerland +4% (+8.5%), Finland +3.7% (+8.7%), Ireland +3.5% (+8.3%), Euro Stoxx 50 +2.4% (+7.1%), Germany -0.1% (+4.6%), New Zealand -0.4% (+1.5%), UAE -1.8% (-1.8%), China -2.1% (-6.4%), Vietnam -2.9% (-4.4%), Saudi Arabia -3.7% (-3.7%), South Africa -3.9% (-4.4%), Chile -4.3% (+4.6%), Malaysia -4.8% (-4.3%), Czech Republic -6% (-1.1%), HK -6.4% (-5.6%), France -6.7% (-2.4%), Denmark -8.1% (-3.6%), Turkey -9.7% (+4.1%), Argentina -10.5% (-6.6%), Philippines -10.9% (-4.5%), India -16.1% (-11.4%), Indonesia -44.5% (-40%).

Disclaimer: All characters and events contained herein are entirely fictional. Even those things that appear based on real people and actual events are products of the author’s imagination. Any similarity is merely coincidental. The numbers are unreliable. The statistics too. Consequently, this message does not contain any investment recommendation, advice, or solicitation of any sort for any product, fund or service. The views expressed are strictly those of the author, even if often times they are not actually views held by the author, or directly contradict those views genuinely held by the author. And the views may certainly differ from those of any firm or person that the author may advise, converse with, or otherwise be associated with. Lastly, any inappropriate language, innuendo or dark humor contained herein is not specifically intended to offend the reader. And besides, nothing could possibly be more offensive than the real-life actions of the inept policy makers, corrupt elected leaders and short, paranoid dictators who infest our little planet. Yet we suffer their indignities every day. Oh yeah, past performance is not indicative of future returns.

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