Wishing you and your crew all the very best in 2026, filled with adventure, challenge, change, volatility, introspection too. It’s already off to an explosive start. Back next Sunday with full wknd notes. In the meantime, dusted off an old climbing Anecdote that I reflect on at the dawn of each new year (see below).
For Week-in-Review and Weekly & Year-to-Date market data, scroll to the bottom.
Anecdote (Jan 2011): Pretty much everything I learned about climbing mountains, I learned from Vincent Ravanel. He’s 7th generation high altitude mountain guide from Argentiere, France. From father to son, the Ravanel’s passed a simple mantra: “The Mountain never ends.” And like most things profound, it touches on something universal and fundamental. Because climbing mountains, physical and metaphorical, is what Man does, and has always done, and will always do. Vincent would calmly whisper that mantra high on the rock and ice when we faced a challenge, a fork, a decision. It served to humble us both, remind us to pace ourselves, and to only press for the summit if conditions and timing were optimal. And it also served to inspire, to capture in a sentence our ambition to tackle something so large and enduring. You see, to bag a tough peak and return intact, of course you need skill/strength/tenacity, but you also need the right temperature/weather/visibility and a measure of good luck. Combine all those well, find the opening, push like hell, and bang – success. But fight the elements, force it, press your luck, and, well, you know the result. So, I take a deep breath, and look up, a new quarter looms and above that, a new year, a new decade, a new century, even a new millennium. And on these first steps of this ambitious climb, I remind myself of the importance of patience and humility, optimal conditions and timing, and a little good luck. But mostly, I tell myself to listen carefully, at those tough and lonely points that surely lay ahead, for the Ravanel whisper, “The Mountain never ends.”
Good luck out there,
Eric Peters
Chief Investment Officer
One River Asset Management
Week-in-Review: Mon: US pending home sales MoM 3.3% (0.9%e). South Korea IP -1.4% (2.2%e). India IP 6.7% (2.9%e). SoftBank to buy DigitalBridge in $3b data center deal. Zelenksiy asked Trump for 50-year Ukraine security guarantee, as negotiations face complications following Putin’s claims that Ukrainian drones targeted his residence. S&P -0.4%. Tue: US Chicago PMI 43.5 (40.0e). China mfg PMI 50.1 (49.2e). South Korea CPI 2.3% as exp. Fed minutes show most officials expect additional rate cuts, but that the Fed will likely hold rates unchanged in January. S&P -0.1%. Wed: US init jobless claims 199k (218k e). Xi declared China is set to hit its economic and developmental goals, with growth expected to reach “about 5%”. CME hikes precious-metal margins after price swings. S&P -0.7%. Thu: Singapore GDP 5.7% (6.3%e). Trump administration increased its pressure campaign against Venezuela’s oil exports by sanctioning companies based in Hong Kong and mainland China and tankers accused of evading restrictions. S&P closed for New Years Day. Fri: Eurozone M3 money supply 3.0% (2.7%e). Trump suggested the US is ready to aid protesters in Iran, prompting a top Iranian official to threaten retaliation against US forces in the region. S&P +0.2%. Sat: US extracts Maduro from Venezuela in extraordinary regime-change military operation (no US forces killed).
Weekly Close: S&P 500 -1.0% and VIX +0.91 at +14.51. Nikkei -0.8%, Shanghai +0.1%, Euro Stoxx +1.3%, Bovespa -0.2%, MSCI World -1.0%, MSCI Emerging +0.6%, Bitcoin +2.6%, and Ethereum +6.6%. USD rose +4.0% vs Russia, +0.6% vs Sweden, +0.4% vs Turkey, +0.4% vs Euro, +0.4% vs Canada, +0.4% vs India, +0.3% vs Australia, +0.3% vs Sterling, and +0.2% vs Yen. USD fell -2.1% vs Brazil, -1.0% vs South Africa, -0.2% vs China, -0.2% vs Indonesia, -0.1% vs Chile, and -0.1% vs Mexico. Gold -4.7%, Silver -6.6%, Oil +1.0%, Copper -2.3%, Iron Ore +1.4%, Corn -2.9%. 10yr Inflation Breakevens (EU +1bp at 1.74%, US +3bps at 2.26%, JP -8bps at 1.78%, and UK -4bps at 2.93%). 2yr Notes flat at 3.48% and 10yr Notes +7bps at 4.19%.
Dec Mthly Close: S&P 500 -0.1% and VIX -1.40 at +14.95. Nikkei +0.2%, Shanghai +2.1%, Euro Stoxx +2.7%, Bovespa +1.3%, MSCI World +0.7%, MSCI Emerging +2.7%, Bitcoin -4.2%, and Ethereum -2.8%. USD rose +2.6% vs Brazil, +1.6% vs Russia, +1.1% vs Turkey, +0.5% vs India, +0.3% vs Yen, and +0.2% vs Indonesia. USD fell -3.2% vs South Africa, -2.9% vs Chile, -2.5% vs Sweden, -1.8% vs Australia, -1.8% vs Canada, -1.8% vs Sterling, -1.6% vs Mexico, -1.3% vs Euro, and -1.2% vs China. Gold +2.0%, Silver +23.5%, Oil -1.5%, Copper +7.8%, Iron Ore flat, Corn -1.7%. 10yr Inflation Breakevens (EU -2bps at 1.75%, US +1bp at 2.25%, JP +9bps at 1.78%, and UK -4bps at 2.93%). 2yr Notes -2bps at 3.48% and 10yr Notes +15bps at 4.17%.
Q4 Quarterly Close: S&P 500 +2.3% and VIX -1.33 at +14.95. Nikkei +12.0%, Shanghai +2.2%, Euro Stoxx +6.1%, Bovespa +10.2%, MSCI World +2.9%, MSCI Emerging +4.3%, Bitcoin -23.5%, and Ethereum -28.2%. USD rose +6.0% vs Yen, +3.3% vs Turkey, +2.9% vs Brazil, +1.2% vs India, and +0.2% vs Indonesia. USD fell -6.4% vs Chile, -5.0% vs Russia, -4.1% vs South Africa, -2.2% vs Sweden, -1.9% vs China, -1.7% vs Mexico, -1.4% vs Canada, -0.9% vs Australia, -0.2% vs Sterling, and -0.1% vs Euro. Gold +11.2%, Silver +49.6%, Oil -6.6%, Copper +15.5%, Iron Ore +1.0%, Corn +1.9%. 10yr Inflation Breakevens (EU +1bp at 1.75%, US -12bps at 2.25%, JP +19bps at 1.78%, and UK -18bps at 2.93%). 2yr Notes -13bps at 3.48% and 10yr Notes +2bps at 4.17%.
2025 Yearly Close: S&P 500 +16.4% and VIX -2.40 at +14.95. Nikkei +26.2%, Shanghai +18.4%, Euro Stoxx +16.7%, Bovespa +34.0%, MSCI World +19.5%, MSCI Emerging +30.6%, Bitcoin -6.8%, and Ethereum -11.4%. USD rose +21.5% vs Turkey, +5.0% vs India, and +3.7% vs Indonesia. USD fell -30.6% vs Russia, -16.8% vs Sweden, -13.5% vs Mexico, -12.1% vs South Africa, -11.9% vs Euro, -11.4% vs Brazil, -9.5% vs Chile, -7.3% vs Australia, -7.1% vs Sterling, -4.6% vs Canada, -4.3% vs China, and -0.3% vs Yen. Gold +55.5%, Silver +128.0%, Oil -15.1%, Copper +36.5%, Iron Ore +3.7%, Corn -3.3%. 10yr Inflation Breakevens (EU -3bps at 1.75%, US -9bps at 2.25%, JP +31bps at 1.78%, and UK -58bps at 2.93%). 2yr Notes -77bps at 3.48% and 10yr Notes -40bps at 4.17%.
2025 Annual Equity Index Returns: Korea +79.6% priced in US dollars (+75.6% priced in won), Czech Republic +79.3% priced in US dollars (+52.6% priced in koruna), Colombia +74.8% in dollars (+49.9% in pesos), Israel +72.4% (+51%), Chile +72% (+56.2%), Spain +69.3% (+49.3%), Poland +68.8% (+47.3%), Hungary +68.7% (+40%), Austria +64.5% (+45.4%), Greece +63.6% (+44.3%), South Africa +63.4% (+43.2%), Ireland +52.2% (+34.3%), Brazil +50.9% (+34%), Mexico +50.4% (+29.9%), Italy +48.7% (+31.5%), Finland +47.3% (+30.2%), Portugal +46.8% (+29.5%), Sweden +39.2% (+16.1%), Germany +39.1% (+23%), Vietnam +36.5% (+40.9%), Norway +35.6% (+20.2%), Belgium +35% (+19.1%), Canada +34.5% (+28.2%), Euro Stoxx 50 +34.1% (+18.3%), Taiwan +31.2% (+25.7%), Switzerland +30.8% (+14.4%), UK +30.6% (+21.5%), Singapore +30.3% (+22.7%), HK +27.5% (+27.8%), Japan +26.8% (+26.2%), France +25.2% (+10.4%), China +23.7% (+18.4%), Netherlands +22.8% (+8.3%), NASDAQ +20.4%, MSCI World +19.5% priced in US dollars, Indonesia +18.3% (+22.1%), S&P 500 +16.4%, Australia +15.2% (+6.8%), Malaysia +12.8% (+2.3%), Russell +11.3%, New Zealand +6.3% (+3.3%), UAE +6.1% (+6.1%), India +5.2% (+10.5%), Thailand -2% (-10%), Turkey -5.7% (+14.6%), Philippines -8.8% (-7.3%), Saudi Arabia -12.7% (-12.8%), Denmark -13.6% (-23.5%), Argentina -14.6% (+20.4%).
Disclaimer: All characters and events contained herein are entirely fictional. Even those things that appear based on real people and actual events are products of the author’s imagination. Any similarity is merely coincidental. The numbers are unreliable. The statistics too. Consequently, this message does not contain any investment recommendation, advice, or solicitation of any sort for any product, fund or service. The views expressed are strictly those of the author, even if often times they are not actually views held by the author, or directly contradict those views genuinely held by the author. And the views may certainly differ from those of any firm or person that the author may advise, converse with, or otherwise be associated with. Lastly, any inappropriate language, innuendo or dark humor contained herein is not specifically intended to offend the reader. And besides, nothing could possibly be more offensive than the real-life actions of the inept policy makers, corrupt elected leaders and short, paranoid dictators who infest our little planet. Yet we suffer their indignities every day. Oh yeah, past performance is not indicative of future returns.