Happy 4th of July. Wonderful to bring family back together for Independence Day. Dusted off an anecdote from June 2018 about the paths we share (see below).
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Anecdote (June 2018): He would have me throw the bones, seated on animal skins in a quiet yurt. The cup’s contents tumbled across the floor. Tiny bones, hyena, lion, leopard, vulture, a small gold Krugerrand, colorful beads, ivory, crystal, ironwood. The South African had dedicated his journey to studying western medicine and Namibian shamanism; the former a miracle, the latter magical. He combined the two, shared the gift. Shamanism connects us with our ancestors, who protect, advise, guide. They communicate through the positioning of the bones, scattered on every roll. I avoided asking about the future. The idea that it is pre-ordained is deeply unsettling. A world where life sheds uncertainty, where actions lack consequences, frightens me. I’d return from the Shaman, and friends would ask what I’d learned about things that matter; health, wealth, tomorrow’s S&P close. But I spent the time looking back, fascinated by my place in this endless stream, how our lives bridge those behind us with those ahead. We discussed my dreams, often fantastic adventures, which I jotted down in the dark before they escaped. A few spiritual guides have been placed along my path, each unique, unlikely. The Shaman was also a father of four, but rather older. He shared much of himself, fears, failures, joys, discoveries. I shared the same. Charlie was just three, 2012, we knew he’d be our last. The weight of my work, the hours, the travel, left me anxious I’d not be there for them. The Shaman had lived the same fear, and to an extent had realized it. His career’s cadence left more time for his last child than first. And it shaped them all, uniquely. “But you can’t fear that. Let it go, completely. You’ll do all that you can. You may even be gone tomorrow, but their path continues. Their journey is not your journey. It is their journey.”
Good luck out there,
Eric Peters
Chief Investment Officer
One River Asset Management
Week-in-Review: Mon: India IP 5.1% (4.5%e). China mfg PMI 50.3 (50.1e), non-mfg PMI 50.2 (49.9e). Japan jobless rate 2.5% as exp, IP MoM 0.5% (0.7%e). Yen hits four-decade low, with Japanese authorities likely to move ahead with intervention or verbal warnings. US Supreme Court ruled mail ballots can arrive after Election Day and also ruled to expand the President’s power to fire top government officials. S&P +1.2%. Tue: Canada GDP 1.1% (0.9%e). UK GDP 0.9% (1.1%e). Trump reports at least $1.4B in 2025 crypto earnings. Bitcoin falls to 21-month low on strategy, rate-hike fears. US lifts export restrictions on Anthropic’s Fable 5 AI Model. S&P +0.8%. Wed: US ADP emp change 98k (120k e). Eurozone CPI 2.8% (3.0%e), Core 2.4% (2.5%e). South Korea CPI 3.2% as exp. South Korean stocks slumped as Meta’s plan to sell computing power raised questions over excess in AI capacity, driving a selloff in chipmakers. Apple seeks to buy Chinese-made memory chips by lobbying US. US Fed Reserve Chairman Warsh reiterated his preference for the US Central Bank to scale back its bond portfolio. S&P -0.2%. Thu: US change in nonfarm payrolls 57k (113k e), init jobless claims 215k (218k e), cont claims 1814k (1820k e), unemp rate 4.2% (4.3%e). Eurozone unemp rate 6.2% (6.3%e). The SEMI industry association warned the Trump administration that government attempts to address global chip shortage by influencing prices or production capacity would worsen the supply squeeze. Anthropic in talks with Samsung for custom AI chip. S&P flat. Fri: Turkey CPI 32.11% (32.10%e). Yen strengthens as traders brace for holiday intervention risk. Won jumps as South Korea prepares for currency flows from Hynix ADRs. S&P 500 closed for Independence Day.
Weekly Close: S&P 500 +1.8% and VIX -2.60 at +15.81. Nikkei +0.6%, Shanghai +0.4%, Euro Stoxx +2.7%, Bovespa +0.4%, MSCI World +2.1%, MSCI Emerging +0.9%, Bitcoin +3.9%, and Ethereum +10.6%. USD rose +0.9% vs India, +0.4% vs Turkey, and +0.2% vs Indonesia. USD fell -1.7% vs Russia, -1.4% vs South Africa, -1.1% vs Sterling, -0.8% vs Sweden, -0.6% vs Australia, -0.5% vs Euro, -0.4% vs Chile, -0.3% vs China, -0.2% vs Yen, -0.2% vs Mexico, -0.1% vs Brazil, and flat vs Canada. Gold +0.7%, Silver +2.3%, Oil (WTI) -0.8%, Oil (Brent) -0.7%, NatGas (US) -2.5%, NatGas (EU) +10.4%, Power (EU) +5.9%, Copper -0.6%, Iron Ore +0.5%, Corn +0.0%. 10yr Inflation Breakevens (EU +7bps at 1.90%, US +3bps at 2.23%, JP +3bps at 2.06%, and UK +2bps at 3.12%). 2yr Notes +4bps at 4.14% and 10yr Notes +11bps at 4.49%.
June Monthly Close: S&P 500 -1.1% and VIX +1.13 at +16.45. Nikkei +5.6%, Shanghai +0.6%, Euro Stoxx +2.5%, Bovespa -1.0%, MSCI World -0.8%, MSCI Emerging -1.7%, Bitcoin -20.2%, and Ethereum -21.7%. USD rose +10.7% vs Russia, +4.9% vs Sweden, +3.8% vs Australia, +3.7% vs Chile, +2.9% vs Canada, +2.5% vs Brazil, +2.1% vs Euro, +2.1% vs Yen, +1.8% vs Turkey, +1.5% vs Sterling, +1.0% vs South Africa, +0.8% vs Mexico, and +0.3% vs China. USD fell -0.4% vs India, and flat vs Indonesia. Gold -12.1%, Silver -21.6%, Oil (WTI) -18.5%, Oil (Brent) -18.1%, NatGas (US) -1.3%, NatGas (EU) -5.5%, Power (EU) +3.9%, Copper -3.0%, Iron Ore -6.4%, Corn -8.2%. 10yr Inflation Breakevens (EU -19bps at 1.85%, US -17bps at 2.23%, JP -18bps at 2.01%, and UK -21bps at 3.12%). 2yr Notes +17bps at 4.18% and 10yr Notes +3bps at 4.47%.
Year-to-Date Close Through June 30th: S&P 500 +9.6% and VIX +1.50 at +16.45. Nikkei +39.2%, Shanghai +3.2%, Euro Stoxx +8.4%, Bovespa +6.8%, MSCI World +8.9%, MSCI Emerging +22.7%, Bitcoin -32.9%, and Ethereum -46.8%. USD rose +8.6% vs Turkey, +7.1% vs Indonesia, +5.3% vs India, +5.3% vs Sweden, +3.7% vs Yen, +3.4% vs Canada, +2.8% vs Euro, +2.4% vs Chile, and +1.6% vs Sterling. USD fell -5.7% vs Brazil, -3.6% vs Australia, -2.9% vs Mexico, -2.9% vs China, -1.0% vs South Africa, and -0.3% vs Russia. Gold -9.1%, Silver -17.1%, Oil (WTI) +21.8%, Oil (Brent) +21.2%, NatGas (US) -12.5%, NatGas (EU) +62.1%, Power (EU) +36.7%, Copper +7.1%, Iron Ore -8.0%, Corn -5.3%. 10yr Inflation Breakevens (EU +10bps at 1.85%, US -1bp at 2.23%, JP +23bps at 2.01%, and UK +18bps at 3.12%). 2yr Notes +70bps at 4.18% and 10yr Notes +30bps at 4.47%.
YTD Equity Index Returns: Korea +80.8% priced in US dollars (+91.9% priced in won), Taiwan +58.8% priced in US dollars (+61.5% priced in Taiwan dollars), Hungary +36.9% in dollars (+28.9% in forint), Japan +34.2% (+38.5%), Colombia +25.4% (+11%), Thailand +21.1% (+27.9%), Russell 2000 +20.7%, Norway +20.5% (+17.5%), Austria +19.9% (+23.3%), Israel +19% (+11.9%), Turkey +17.5% (+28%), Greece +16.6% (+19.6%), Brazil +14.6% (+8%), Italy +14.3% (+17.5%), Poland +13.7% (+18.7%), Portugal +13.6% (+16.6%), Singapore +12.4% (+12.9%), Spain +11.8% (+14.7%), Belgium +11.6% (+14.5%), NASDAQ +11.1%, Netherlands +11% (+13.9%), S&P 500 +9.3%, MSCI World +9.3% priced in US dollars, Euro Stoxx 50 +7.9% (+10.7%), Finland +7.9% (+10.9%), Mexico +7.5% (+4.3%), Canada +7.5% (+11.2%), Sweden +7.4% (+12.6%), Switzerland +7% (+8.7%), UK +6.8% (+7.5%), Australia +5.5% (+1.5%), China +5% (+1.9%), Vietnam +4.3% (+4.3%), Ireland +3.7% (+6.4%), Saudi Arabia +3.1% (+3.2%), Germany +2.4% (+5.3%), Argentina +2.3% (+4.8%), France +1.7% (+4.4%), Chile +1.1% (+3.2%), Denmark +0.8% (+3.7%), New Zealand -0.3% (+0.5%), Malaysia -0.4% (-0.1%), UAE -0.9% (-0.9%), Philippines -2.2% (+2.2%), South Africa -2.5% (-4.5%), Czech Republic -5.1% (-2.6%), HK -9.6% (-8.9%), India -12.2% (-7.1%), Indonesia -36.8% (-32%).
Disclaimer: All characters and events contained herein are entirely fictional. Even those things that appear based on real people and actual events are products of the author’s imagination. Any similarity is merely coincidental. The numbers are unreliable. The statistics too. Consequently, this message does not contain any investment recommendation, advice, or solicitation of any sort for any product, fund or service. The views expressed are strictly those of the author, even if often times they are not actually views held by the author, or directly contradict those views genuinely held by the author. And the views may certainly differ from those of any firm or person that the author may advise, converse with, or otherwise be associated with. Lastly, any inappropriate language, innuendo or dark humor contained herein is not specifically intended to offend the reader. And besides, nothing could possibly be more offensive than the real-life actions of the inept policy makers, corrupt elected leaders and short, paranoid dictators who infest our little planet. Yet we suffer their indignities every day. Oh yeah, past performance is not indicative of future returns.