One River Asset Management, LLC | Terms of Use

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wknd
notes

Wknd Notes
White Papers
Mystery, Magic, Markets, Quantum Entanglement

What I Do For A Living

What I Do For A Living
August 29, 2026
Read more

The Game of Speculation

The Game of Speculation
August 22, 2026
Read more

wknd
notes

Each Sunday morning for over a decade, One River’s CIO, Eric Peters, has published “Wknd Notes.” It is an unorthodox take on markets, politics, and policy that’s widely read across our industry and within global policy/political circles. Eric has written for as long as he has traded and the discipline is part of his investment process. Drawing on wide-ranging, multi-disciplinary research, historical study, and discussions with interesting characters throughout the world, Eric collects those things he finds most thought-provoking each week and distills them into a concise letter. At times the ideas and views are consistent with his own, but just as often, they challenge his positions and it is this openness to opposing views that helps him maintain a flexible mind in the search for emerging opportunities and risks. His writing is a reflection of how he thinks, and as such it is as focused on identifying the right questions to ask as it is on seeking answers. The publication of this work is Eric’s way of exchanging ideas/information and developing dialogue with a network grown over his thirty-one-year career.

Mystery, Magic, Markets, Quantum Entanglement

September 05, 2026

Dusted off an Anecdote from September 2018 about mystery, magic, markets, quantum entanglement (see below). I take late summer off from writing for time with family, reading, altitude, solitude. Wishing the same for you. See you next Sunday with full wknd notes. All the very best, Eric

For Week-in-Review and Weekly & Year-to-Date market data, scroll to the bottom.

Anecdote (Sept 2018): “I’m fortunate to live in a time where the political system allows my kind of work,” said the Physicist. “Historically, it’s not always so.” Below us particles raced around CERN’s 27km subterranean track, held in precise formation, accelerating toward collision, obliteration, observation. We discussed magic, mysteries, the sublime wonder all around. “It’s incredible that we’ve been able to learn so much about nature, and that the language of mathematics turns out to be so effective in describing it,” he said. I smiled, having never quite considered that fact. “We’re now trying to produce a substance found throughout the universe that interacts with gravity but not light,” he explained. “But so far, no success.” The existence of Dark Matter was first hypothesized in the 1930s, we’ve searched ever since. It accounts for 95% of the Universe’s mass. The Physicist asked me about markets, intrigued by their movements, mechanics. There are parallels with quantum theory. Investor perceptions impact markets, which in turn changes investor perceptions in a reflexive loop that grows highly unpredictable in the extreme. The greatest opportunities in markets often reveal themselves first as mysterious phenomena. When markets move in opposition to general principles, it often means that something fundamental is changing. Reality is always changing. Our job as investors is to identify shifts early and adjust our frameworks accordingly. I asked the Physicist to explain the mystery that confounded Einstein and every physicist since: Quantum Entanglement. “I can understand the equations that describe it. But I’m intuitively mystified by the phenomenon,” he admitted. “In my field of work, I’m astonished often. And each time, I’m reminded that what we know about reality fits within perhaps 5% of all there is. And when you know so little about something so vast, it’s impossible to be certain whether what you believe you know is even reality.”

Good luck out there,

Eric Peters

Chief Investment Officer

One River Asset Management

Week-in-Review: Mon: US Army Secretary Driscoll is stepping down after repeated clashes with Pete Hegeseth. US Treasury Secretary Bessent ramps up pressure on BOJ to raise rates further. Global bond selloff sends yields to highest level since 2008. S&P -0.3%. Tue: US ISM mfg 54.6 (55.2e). Eurozone CPI 3.3% as exp. US 30-year bond enters September on worst stretch since 2006. BOJ’s Ueda hints at September rate hike. US-Iran conflict intensifies as Trump downplays desire for deal. S&P -0.7%. Wed: US ADP emp change 38k (47k e). Trump said renewed attacks on Iran would likely be short-lived, reiterating his claim that the US controls the Strait of Hormuz. S&P +0.5%. Thu: US init jobless claims 206k (204k e), trade balance -$88.6b (-$90.2b e). Fed’s Waller leans toward holding rates if August inflation data is “reasonable.” Nvidia to acquire AI startup Hugging Face for $13B in open-source push. S&P +1.1%. Fri: US change in nonfarm payrolls +162k (+55k e), unemp rate unch 4.1% as exp. Trump intensified pressure on the Fed to lower interest rates. S&P -0.5%. Sat: US military strikes three Iranian tankers after Navy ships targeted.

Manufacturing PMI (high-to-low): Switzerland 57.1 (previous month 53.2), Sweden 56.1 (previous month 55.7), Japan 54.9 (previous mth 54.5), Taiwan 54.7 (previous 55.1), US 54.6/55.6, Austria 54.4/51.5, Greece 54.4/54.3, Germany 54.3/52.2, Czech Republic 54.1/52.2, Netherlands 53.8/54.4, Vietnam 53.3/52.9, Canada 53/53.5, India 52.8/53.5, South Korea 52.3/53.1, UK 51.7/51.9, China 51.5/50.9, Singapore 51.5/51.4, Hungary 51.3/51.4, France 51.1/49.8, South Africa 50.5/50.3, Indonesia 49.8/50.2, Mexico 49.8/51.3, Italy 49.6/51.3, Spain 49.5/50.2, Hong Kong 49.5/51, Russia 48.8/50.7, Poland 48.3/49, Turkey 48.1/47.7. Services PMI: Spain 57.8/58.3, US 56.5/54.6, Sweden 55.8/54.3, Ireland 55.4/55.2, Italy 55.2/52.5, India 54.1/53.3, Australia 53.2/53.6, UK 52.5/52.1, Japan 52.5/51.2, China 51.4/50.4, Russia 51.3/49, Brazil 50.5/49.7, Germany 49.7/49.8, France 48/49.6.

Weekly Close: S&P 500 +0.1% and VIX +0.10 at +14.53. Nikkei -2.1%, Shanghai -0.6%, Euro Stoxx -0.8%, Bovespa +5.4%, MSCI World +0.02%, MSCI Emerging +0.2%, Bitcoin +2.7%, and Ethereum +0.8%. USD rose +0.4% vs Russia, +0.4% vs Turkey, +0.2% vs Chile, and +0.1% vs Sterling. USD fell -2.4% vs Yen, -1.3% vs South Africa, -1.3% vs Brazil, -0.9% vs India, -0.9% vs Mexico, -0.5% vs Australia, -0.5% vs Canada, -0.4% vs Sweden, -0.3% vs Indonesia, -0.3% vs China, and -0.2% vs Euro. Gold -1.2%, Silver -1.5%, Oil (WTI) +9.7%, Oil (Brent) +9.3%, NatGas (US) +3.0%, NatGas (EU) +7.4%, Power (EU) +3.2%, Copper +0.4%, Iron Ore -0.7%, Corn +0.05%. 10yr Inflation Breakevens (EU +2bps at 2.17%, US +4bps at 2.35%, JP -7bps at 1.98%, and UK +3bps at 3.35%). 2yr Notes +2bps at 4.37% and 10yr Notes +6bps at 4.78%.

August Monthly Close: S&P 500 +2.6% and VIX -1.07 at +14.92. Nikkei +3.0%, Shanghai +4.0%, Euro Stoxx +0.3%, Bovespa -0.3%, MSCI World +2.5%, MSCI Emerging +3.2%, Bitcoin +25.6%, and Ethereum +33.0%. USD rose +8.3% vs Russia, +2.2% vs Brazil, +1.6% vs Turkey, +1.5% vs Yen, +0.5% vs Sweden, and +0.3% vs Chile. USD fell -2.5% vs South Africa, -2.1% vs Australia, -2.0% vs Mexico, -1.6% vs Indonesia, -1.2% vs Canada, -0.8% vs Euro, -0.5% vs China, -0.5% vs Sterling, and -0.2% vs India. Gold +9.1%, Silver +14.7%, Oil (WTI) +5.2%, Oil (Brent) +7.0%, NatGas (US) +5.3%, NatGas (EU) +18.2%, Power (EU) +5.8%, Copper +1.9%, Iron Ore +5.9%, Corn +15.9%. 10yr Inflation Breakevens (EU +13bps at 2.16%, US +4bps at 2.32%, JP +4bps at 2.03%, and UK +9bps at 3.32%). 2yr Notes +5bps at 4.34% and 10yr Notes +2bps at 4.75%.

Year-to-Date Close: S&P 500 +12.3% and VIX -0.03 at +14.92. Nikkei +31.7%, Shanghai +0.4%, Euro Stoxx +9.9%, Bovespa +10.1%, MSCI World +12.1%, MSCI Emerging +22.4%, Bitcoin -9.5%, and Ethereum -16.3%. USD rose +12.3% vs Turkey, +9.2% vs Russia, +6.2% vs Indonesia, +5.9% vs India, +4.0% vs Sweden, +3.7% vs Chile, +1.9% vs Yen, +1.1% vs Euro, and +0.9% vs Canada. USD fell -6.9% vs Australia, -5.6% vs Mexico, -5.3% vs Brazil, -3.8% vs China, -2.7% vs South Africa, and -0.5% vs Sterling. Gold -0.4%, Silver -8.0%, Oil (WTI) +50.6%, Oil (Brent) +50.3%, NatGas (US) -22.0%, NatGas (EU) +157.4%, Power (EU) +70.2%, Copper +13.2%, Iron Ore -7.4%, Corn +16.8%. 10yr Inflation Breakevens (EU +41bps at 2.16%, US +7bps at 2.32%, JP +26bps at 2.03%, and UK +39bps at 3.32%). 2yr Notes +87bps at 4.34% and 10yr Notes +58bps at 4.75%.

YTD Equity Index Returns: Korea +69.9% priced in US dollars (+58.7% priced in won), Taiwan +59.6% priced in US dollars (+60.7% in Taiwan dollars), Colombia +48.3% in US dollars (+23% in pesos), Hungary +40.4% in dollars (+33.1% in forint), Norway +37.3% (+26.6%), Japan +29.4% (+29.2%), Austria +27.3% (+28.8%), Poland +27.1% (+31.3%), Singapore +26.8% (+24.9%), Greece +26.1% (+27.4%), Brazil +23% (+14.9%), Israel +21.5% (+14.6%), Thailand +20.9% (+26.7%), Russell 2000 +19.9%, Portugal +17.3% (+18.4%), Netherlands +15.9% (+17.1%), Spain +14.7% (+15.8%), Italy +14.6% (+15.9%), Canada +14.2% (+15.1%), Belgium +14.1% (+15.2%), NASDAQ +14%, MSCI World +12.9% in US dollars, S&P 500 +12.8%, Australia +11.7% (+3.3%), Turkey +10.3% (+24.4%), Ireland +9.7% (+10.8%), Finland +9.7% (+10.9%), UK +9.6% (+9.1%), Sweden +9.5% (+13.9%), Euro Stoxx 50 +9.3% (+10.4%), Mexico +7.7% (+0.9%), Switzerland +6.1% (+8.5%), New Zealand +5.5% (+3.1%), South Africa +5.2% (+1.2%), Germany +5.1% (+6.4%), Saudi Arabia +5% (+5.2%), Vietnam +4.7% (+3.8%), Chile +4.3% (+8%), Czech Republic +3.6% (+4.7%), China +3.2% (-1%), Malaysia +2% (+1.7%), France +0.6% (+1.6%), Denmark +0.5% (+1.7%), UAE -0.2% (-0.2%), HK -0.7% (+0.1%), Argentina -3.6% (-0.1%), Philippines -5.5% (+0.6%), India -12.9% (-8.5%), Indonesia -27.1% (-23.3%).

Disclaimer: All characters and events contained herein are entirely fictional. Even those things that appear based on real people and actual events are products of the author’s imagination. Any similarity is merely coincidental. The numbers are unreliable. The statistics too. Consequently, this message does not contain any investment recommendation, advice, or solicitation of any sort for any product, fund or service. The views expressed are strictly those of the author, even if often times they are not actually views held by the author, or directly contradict those views genuinely held by the author. And the views may certainly differ from those of any firm or person that the author may advise, converse with, or otherwise be associated with. Lastly, any inappropriate language, innuendo or dark humor contained herein is not specifically intended to offend the reader. And besides, nothing could possibly be more offensive than the real-life actions of the inept policy makers, corrupt elected leaders and short, paranoid dictators who infest our little planet. Yet we suffer their indignities every day. Oh yeah, past performance is not indicative of future returns.

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