My Dad died today, unexpectedly, mercifully, it was his time. He was a great man, lived a good life, not easy in many ways, but filled with adventure, risk taking, the outdoors. He was a kind soul, who believed in peace through strength, advancing our nation’s aerospace and defense technologies. He taught his five children so many things, but above all, the importance of forgiveness. And in this, he led by example. We loved and admired him.
Back next Sunday. All the very best, Eric
Week-in-Review: Mon: Trump repeats call for Fed’s Powell to immediately cut rates and for his removal. Iran says removal of sanctions is the ‘fundamental demand’ in its US nuclear talks. Beijing warns countries not to act against China in trade deals with US. US and Philippine forces to conduct ‘full battle test’ in South China Sea. Israeli intelligence chief says Netanyahu asked him to target domestic opponents. Pope Francis dies aged 88. US Leading index -0.7% (-0.5%e), S&P -2.4%. Tue: Bessent says tariff standoff with China is unsustainable and expects a de-escalation but no negotiations yet. IMF warns tariffs risk tipping US recession into recession and increasing public debt to postwar highs. At least 26 people killed in Kashmir attack. US aerospace and defense groups warn of higher costs from Trump tariffs. Putin offers to halt Ukraine invasion along current front line. Spain to meet Nato’s 2% defense spending target this year. Gold hits $3,500 for the first time. Richmond Fed Bus. Act. Survey -13(-6.5e), Eurozone Cons conf -16.7 (-15.1e), S&P +2.5%. Wed: Trump says he has ‘no intention’ of firing Jay Powell. Trump attacks Ukraine for not recognizing Russian occupation of Crimea. Bessent says Trump hasn’t offered to take down the levies on Chinese imports on a unilateral basis. Trump to host a dinner with the 220 biggest holders of the Trump meme coin. Trump to exempt carmakers from some US tariffs. Bailey says BoE must ‘take seriously’ risk to growth from Trump tariffs. Bessent accuses IMF and World Bank of ‘mission creep’. Eurozone PMI mfg 48.7 (47.4e) / serv 49.7 (50.5e) / comp 50.1 (50.2e), UK PMI mfg 44 as exp / serv 48.9 (51.5e) / comp 48.2 (50.4e), US PMI mfg 50.7 (49.0e) / serv 51.4 (52.6e) / comp 51.2 (52.0e), US Home sales 724k (685k e), S&P +1.7%. Thu: Trump urges Putin to stop strikes on Ukraine. Rubio denies that the White House may lift sanctions on Russian energy assets as part of a peace deal. China tells US to ‘cancel all unilateral tariffs’ if it wants trade talks. The president said China may receive a new tariff rate in two to three weeks. Rubio says US may accept civilian nuclear program in Iran. UK and EU to finalize plans for defense pact. Ukraine fails to reach deal with investors to restructure $2.6bn of debt. Pakistan to suspend peace treaty with India as tensions grow over Kashmir killings. Germany downgrades 2025 growth forecast to 0%. US Jobless claims 222k as exp / Cont claims 1841k (1869k e), Chicago National Activity Index –0.03 (0.24p), US Durable goods order 9.2% (2.0%e), US Existing home sales 4.02m (4.12m e), S&P +2.0%. Fri: China to suspend its 125% tariff on medical equipment, plane leases, and ethane from US. Trump says he received call from Xi; Chinese embassy in DC denies. Trump says he expects to wrap up trade deals over the next three to four weeks. In Time magazine interview, Trump says he would veto cuts to Social Security or federal health coverage for older and low-income Americans, would ‘absolutely’ sign a bill banning congressional stock trading, opposes Ukraine joining NATO. Putin meets Trump’s special envoy Witkoff in Moscow. UK-US trade talks start. Wisconsin judge accused of helping a man evade detention by authorities is arrested. India and Pakistan troops exchange fire in the Jammu and Kashmir region, breaking a 2021 pledge to cease firing along the Line of Control. China seizes disputed reef in the South China Sea. Tokyo Core CPI +3.4% (3.2% e), US Mich sent 52.2 (50.5e), Brazil infl 5.49% (5.48%e), S&P +0.7%.
Weekly Close: S&P 500 +4.6% and VIX -4.81 at +24.84. Nikkei +2.8%, Shanghai +0.6%, Euro Stoxx +2.8%, Bovespa +3.9%, MSCI World +3.5%, and MSCI Emerging +2.3%. USD rose +1.1% vs Turkey, +1.0% vs Yen, +0.9% vs Russia, +0.9% vs Sweden, +0.2% vs Euro, +0.1% vs Canada, +0.1% vs India, and flat vs Indonesia. USD fell -11.2% vs Bitcoin, -11.0% vs Ethereum, -3.2% vs Chile, -2.1% vs Brazil, -1.1% vs Mexico, -0.7% vs South Africa, -0.3% vs Australia, -0.2% vs China, and -0.1% vs Sterling. Gold -0.9%, Silver +1.7%, Oil -1.5%, Copper +2.2%, Iron Ore +0.7%, Corn -1.0%. 10yr inflation Breakevens (EU +5bps at 1.77%, US +3bps at 2.27%, JP +20bps at 1.47%, and UK +5bps at 3.24%). 2yr Notes -5bps at 3.75% and 10yr Notes -9bps at 4.24%.
2025 Year-to-Date Equity Index Returns: Poland +37.6% priced in US dollars (+25.9% priced in zloty), Czech Republic +30.6% priced in Us dollars (+18.3% in koruna), Hungary +30% in dollars (+17.2% in forint), Greece +27.5% (+16.1%), Spain +26.5% (+15.2%), Chile +26.3% (+19.1%), Colombia +24.1% (+19%), Mexico +22.3% (+14.6%), Germany +22.2% (+11.7%), Brazil +22.1% (+12%), Austria +21.3% (+10.9%), Italy +19.5% (+9.2%), Euro Stoxx 50 +15.6% (+5.3%), Portugal +15.2% (+4.8%), Ireland +14.3% (+4%), Norway +13.7% (+4.1%), Switzerland +12.4% (+2.9%), Finland +12.3% (+2.7%), France +12.2% (+2.1%), South Africa +11.8% (+10.7%), Sweden +11.3% (-2.3%), Belgium +10.9% (+1%), HK +9.7% (+9.6%), UK +9.5% (+3%), Netherlands +9.1% (-0.7%), Korea +8.4% (+6.1%), Israel +5.6% (+5.2%), Singapore +5% (+1%), Canada +3.7% (-0.1%), India +1.9% (+1.7%), Australia +1.2% (-2.3%), UAE -0.3% (-0.3%), Philippines -1.1% (-4%), China -1.5% (-1.7%), New Zealand -1.8% (-8.3%), Saudi Arabia -2.1% (-2.3%), Japan -2.2% (-10.5%), MSCI World -3% in dollars, Vietnam -5% (-3%), Malaysia -6% (-8.1%), S&P 500 -6.1%, Indonesia -9.2% (-5.7%), NASDAQ -10%, Turkey -11.7% (-4%), Russell -12.2%, Taiwan -13% (-13.7%), Thailand -15.5% (-17.2%), Denmark -16.5% (-23.6%), Argentina -22.5% (-12.2%).
Good luck out there,
Eric Peters
Chief Investment Officer
One River Asset Management
Disclaimer: All characters and events contained herein are entirely fictional. Even those things that appear based on real people and actual events are products of the author’s imagination. Any similarity is merely coincidental. The numbers are unreliable. The statistics too. Consequently, this message does not contain any investment recommendation, advice, or solicitation of any sort for any product, fund or service. The views expressed are strictly those of the author, even if often times they are not actually views held by the author, or directly contradict those views genuinely held by the author. And the views may certainly differ from those of any firm or person that the author may advise, converse with, or otherwise be associated with. Lastly, any inappropriate language, innuendo or dark humor contained herein is not specifically intended to offend the reader. And besides, nothing could possibly be more offensive than the real-life actions of the inept policy makers, corrupt elected leaders and short, paranoid dictators who infest our little planet. Yet we suffer their indignities every day. Oh yeah, past performance is not indicative of future returns.