Hope all goes well… Dusted off an anecdote from 2017 about raising kids, and life (see below). Wishing you all a very happy 4th of July long weekend. Back next Sunday with full weekend notes. E

Week-in-Review: Mon: US Chicago PMI 40.4 (43.0e). UK GDP 1.3% as exp. Germany CPI 2.0% (2.2%e). Italy CPI 1.7% (1.8%e). Poland CPI 4.1% (4.0%e). The EU is willing to accept Trump’s 10% universal tariff but wants lower rates on key sectors, with July 9th deadline looming. Trump signed order terminating US sanctions program against Syria. S&P +0.5%. Tue: US ISM mfg 49.0 (48.8e), US JOLTs job openings 7.769M (7.200M e). Eurozone CPI 2.0% as exp / core 2.3% as exp. Eurozone PMI mfg 49.5 (49.4e). South Korea CPI 2.2% (2.1%e). Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” passes Senate, though scrapping a controversial portion that would prevent US states from regulating AI. Powell keeps options open for possible July rate cut, expecting tariff impact to show in inflation data in coming months. S&P -0.1%. Wed: US ADP emp change -33k (+98k e). Eurozone unemp rate 6.3% (6.2%e). Poland base rate cut to 5.00% (5.25%e). Trump announces 20% import tariff deal with Vietnam. S&P +0.5%. Thu: US non-farm payrolls +147k, unemployment rate 4.1% (4.3%e), jobless claims 233k (241k e). Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” passes the House. Putin and Trump discussed Ukraine by phone, with Kremlin signaling little progress toward ending the war and following with air attack on Kyiv. S&P +0.8%. Fri: Trump signs “One Big Beautiful Bill” into law. Trump administration set to start notifying countries of tariffs effective August 1 (hints at large tariff announcements). Crypto prices come under pressure following Trump comments on tariffs with cash equity markets closed for July 4th. Sat: Between July 4-5th a total of 80,000 Bitcoin (worth ~$8.6bln) moved out of wallets that had been dormant for 14 years.

Manufacturing PMI (high-to-low): India 58.4 (previous month 57.6), Greece 53.1 (previous month 53.2), Sweden 51.9 (previous 53.1), Spain 51.4/50.5, Netherlands 51.2/49, China 50.4/48.3, Czech Republic 50.2/48, South Africa 50.1/50.8, Japan 50.1/49.4, Singapore 50/49.7, Switzerland 49.6/42.1, Norway 49.26/51.21, US 49/48.5, Germany 49/48.3, Hungary 48.9/49.8, Vietnam 48.9/49.8, South Korea 48.7/47.7, Italy 48.4/49.2, Brazil 48.3/49.4, France 48.1/49.8, Hong Kong 47.8/49, UK 47.7/46.4, Russia 47.5/50.2, Taiwan 47.2/48.6, Austria 47/48.4, Indonesia 46.9/47.4, Turkey 46.7/47.2, Mexico 46.3/46.7, Canada 45.6/46.1, Poland 44.8/47.1. Services PMI: India 60.4/58.8, Sweden 54.6/50.9, US 52.9/53.7, UK 52.8/50.9, Italy 52.1/53.2, Spain 51.9/51.3, Australia 51.8/50.6, Japan 51.7/51, Ireland 51.5/54.7, China 50.6/51.1, Germany 49.7/47.1, France 49.6/48.9, Brazil 49.3/49.6, Russia 49.2/52.2.

Weekly Close: S&P 500 +1.7% and VIX +1.16 at +17.48. Nikkei -0.8%, Shanghai +1.4%, Euro Stoxx -0.5%, Bovespa +3.2%, MSCI World +1.3%, MSCI Emerging +0.3%, Bitcoin +1.1%, and Ethereum +3.8%. USD rose +0.8% vs Sweden, +0.5% vs Sterling, and +0.1% vs Russia. USD fell -1.4% vs South Africa, -1.2% vs Brazil, -1.2% vs Chile, -1.0% vs Mexico, -0.6% vs Canada, -0.5% vs Euro, -0.4% vs Australia, -0.1% vs Yen, -0.1% vs Indonesia, -0.1% vs India, -0.1% vs China, and -0.1% vs Turkey. Gold +1.7%, Silver +2.0%, Oil +2.3%, Copper +0.4%, Iron Ore +6.0%, Corn +2.1%. 10yr Inflation Breakevens (EU -2bps at 1.73%, US +3bps at 2.34%, JP +5bps at 1.58%, and UK -1bp at 3.05%). 2yr Notes +13bps at 3.88% and 10yr Notes +7bps at 4.35%.

June Monthly Close: S&P 500 +5.0% and VIX -1.84 at +16.73. Nikkei +6.6%, Shanghai +2.9%, Euro Stoxx -1.3%, Bovespa +1.3%, MSCI World +4.2%, MSCI Emerging +5.7%, Bitcoin +1.7%, and Ethereum -5.1%. USD rose +1.6% vs Turkey, +1.1% vs Russia, +0.2% vs India, and flat vs Yen. USD fell -5.1% vs Brazil, -3.7% vs Euro, -3.6% vs Mexico, -2.3% vs Australia, -2.0% vs Sterling, -1.6% vs South Africa, -1.5% vs Chile, -1.4% vs Sweden, -1.0% vs Canada, -0.5% vs China, and -0.3% vs Indonesia. Gold -0.2%, Silver +8.5%, Oil +8.9%, Copper +7.5%, Iron Ore -3.8%, Corn -3.3%. 10yr Inflation Breakevens (EU +5bps at 1.74%, US -5bps at 2.28%, JP -7bps at 1.53%, and UK -12bps at 3.03%). 2yr Notes -18bps at 3.72% and 10yr Notes -17bps at 4.23%.

Q2 Quarterly Close: S&P 500 +10.6% and VIX -5.55 at +16.73. Nikkei +13.7%, Shanghai +3.3%, Euro Stoxx +1.4%, Bovespa +6.6%, MSCI World +11.0%, MSCI Emerging +11.0%, Bitcoin +29.0%, and Ethereum +34.2%. USD rose +4.9% vs Turkey, and +0.3% vs India. USD fell -8.4% vs Mexico, -8.2% vs Euro, -5.9% vs Sterling, -5.8% vs Russia, -5.8% vs Sweden, -5.4% vs Canada, -5.1% vs Australia, -4.8% vs Brazil, -4.0% vs Yen, -3.3% vs South Africa, -2.0% vs Chile, -1.9% vs Indonesia, and -1.3% vs China. Gold +4.2%, Silver +2.7%, Oil -6.5%, Copper -0.7%, Iron Ore -8.4%, Corn -5.9%. 10yr Inflation Breakevens (EU -21bps at 1.74%, US -9bps at 2.28%, JP -5bps at 1.53%, and UK -36bps at 3.03%). 2yr Notes -16bps at 3.72% and 10yr Notes +2bps at 4.23%.

H1 Half Yearly Close: S&P 500 +5.5% (+6.2% incl dividends) and VIX -0.62 at +16.73. Nikkei +1.5%, Shanghai +2.8%, Euro Stoxx +6.6%, Bovespa +15.4%, MSCI World +8.6%, MSCI Emerging +13.7%, Bitcoin +12.5%, and Ethereum -28.0%. USD rose +12.6% vs Turkey, +0.8% vs Indonesia, and +0.2% vs India. USD fell -31.0% vs Russia, -14.6% vs Sweden, -12.2% vs Euro, -12.1% vs Brazil, -10.0% vs Mexico, -8.9% vs Sterling, -8.4% vs Yen, -6.4% vs Chile, -6.0% vs South Africa, -6.0% vs Australia, -5.4% vs Canada, and -1.9% vs China. Gold +21.7%, Silver +19.9%, Oil -6.3%, Copper +23.5%, Iron Ore -7.1%, Corn -7.5%. 10yr Inflation Breakevens (EU -4bps at 1.74%, US -5bps at 2.28%, JP +6bps at 1.53%, and UK -48bps at 3.03%). 2yr Notes -52bps at 3.72% and 10yr Notes -34bps at 4.23%.

2025 Year-to-Date Equity Index Returns: Poland +51.5% priced in US dollars (+32.6% priced in zloty), Greece +48.5% priced in US dollars (+30.5% in euros), Hungary +46.8% in dollars (+25.5% in forint), Czech Republic +41.5% (+22.3%), Portugal +39.9% (+22.9%), Israel +39.8% (+28%), Korea +37.6% (+27.3%), Spain +37.1% (+20.5%), Austria +35.6% (+19.7%), Germany +35.4% (+19.5%), Colombia +34.7% (+22.3%), Brazil +34.1% (+17.4%), Ireland +32% (+16%), Italy +31.3% (+15.9%), Chile +31.2% (+23.5%), Norway +31.2% (+16.1%), Mexico +31.1% (+17.1%), South Africa +27.1% (+18.6%), Finland +26.8% (+11.9%), Euro Stoxx 50 +22.9% (+8%), Belgium +19.7% (+5.2%), France +18.6% (+4.3%), HK +18% (+19.2%), Switzerland +17.7% (+3.2%), UK +17.7% (+8%), Netherlands +17.6% (+3.4%), Sweden +16.6% (+1.2%), Canada +15.6% (+9.3%), Singapore +13.7% (+6%), Australia +11.7% (+5.4%), Taiwan +11% (-2.1%), MSCI World +9.5% in dollars, Japan +8.5% (-0.2%), India +7.8% (+7.7%), S&P 500 +6.8%, NASDAQ +6.7%, Vietnam +6.5% (+9.5%), UAE +6% (+6%), China +5.5% (+3.6%), New Zealand +5.4% (-2.6%), Russell +0.8%, Philippines +0.5% (-2%), Malaysia +0% (-5.6%), Indonesia -3% (-3%), Denmark -4.7% (-15.9%), Saudi Arabia -6.4% (-6.6%), Turkey -7.3% (+4.5%), Thailand -15.5% (-20%), Argentina -31.9% (-18%).

Anecdote (July 2017): “Think hard about what you would like from your new coach and what you are prepared to give him,” I told Jackson (15). He’d requested a meeting with Darien’s head coach, a lacrosse legend. “Imagine two young people walk into my office,” I continued. “Person A says: I’d like you to help me build a great career. I’m really ambitious. Please help me.” Jackson nodded. “Person B says: It’s such a privilege to have this opportunity. I’m killing myself to help the team, but I’m sure I could be more effective. Would you please pull me aside periodically and point out how I can get better.” He nodded. “Which would you like to be?” And Jackson said, Person B, obviously, but what does that have to do with meeting my coach? “Everything.” So we discussed the one natural law that defies physics: If you give more than you get, you get more than you give. Despite ubiquitous evidence of this law’s existence, there’s nothing intuitive about it. Which, perhaps, is why it took decades to discover it myself. And now I’ll give anything to help my kids learn it earlier. Anyhow, Jackson talked me through what he’d say to his coach; his appreciation, commitment, determination, gratitude. We sat in the shade, a hot summer day. Coach arrived, mapped out Jackson’s next three years. Explained how he develops athletes, as players, leaders, students, young men. And Jackson simply said, ‘Thank you.’ We headed home. “What happened? Was that a joke? You were Person A,” I said, stunned, aggravated at the absurdity of what had happened, the thankless effort of it all sometimes. “I know Dad, I just kind of choked.” Which naturally led to a new conversation, as we wandered home, father/son, along our inextricably interwoven path. A reward unto itself.

Good luck out there,

Eric Peters

Chief Investment Officer

One River Asset Management

Disclaimer: All characters and events contained herein are entirely fictional. Even those things that appear based on real people and actual events are products of the author’s imagination. Any similarity is merely coincidental. The numbers are unreliable. The statistics too. Consequently, this message does not contain any investment recommendation, advice, or solicitation of any sort for any product, fund or service. The views expressed are strictly those of the author, even if often times they are not actually views held by the author, or directly contradict those views genuinely held by the author. And the views may certainly differ from those of any firm or person that the author may advise, converse with, or otherwise be associated with. Lastly, any inappropriate language, innuendo or dark humor contained herein is not specifically intended to offend the reader. And besides, nothing could possibly be more offensive than the real-life actions of the inept policy makers, corrupt elected leaders and short, paranoid dictators who infest our little planet. Yet we suffer their indignities every day. Oh yeah, past performance is not indicative of future returns.