One River Asset Management, LLC | Terms of Use

This website is the property of One River Asset Management, LLC (“One River”). One River is registered with the Securities & Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as an investment adviser. One River is also registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a CPO and as a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Neither registration with the SEC and CFTC, nor membership with the NFA implies a certain level of skill or training. All investing involves risk of loss, including the possible loss of all amounts invested.

Access to this site is conditioned upon your acceptance without modification of the terms, conditions, and notices contained herein. By accessing this website, you signify your agreement with, and understanding of, the terms of use and legal information pertaining to both this site and any materials contained herein. One River reserves the right to change the terms, conditions, and notices under which this site is provided at any time and without notice. Continued use of the website after updates constitutes acceptance of the revised terms.

You agree that the information on this site may not be transmitted (in any form) to any other person without One River’s prior written consent. All materials on this site are meant to be reviewed in their entirety, including any footnotes, legal disclaimers, restrictions or disclosures, and any copyright or proprietary notices. Any disclaimers, restrictions or disclosures apply to any partial document or material in the same manner as they do the whole and will be deemed incorporated in the portion of any material that you consult or download.

Restricted Access

Information on this website is strictly limited to individuals and entities who qualify as “Qualified Eligible Persons” as defined in CFTC Regulation 4.7. and “Accredited Investors” as defined under the US Securities Act of 1933.

Access to this website from certain countries may be restricted by law and you are required to determine that you are permitted to access it

NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE OR A PUBLIC SOLICITATION

This website and the information contained herein are for informational purposes only and do not constitute a complete description of our investment management services or investment vehicles. It is not intended as investment advice. The information contained herein constitutes neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation of an offer to purchase any securities. Such an offer will be made only to qualified investors by means of a private offering memorandum and related subscription documents and only in those jurisdictions where permitted by law.

INVESTMENT RISKS AND PERFORMANCE INFORMATION

Hedge funds and other alternative investments are illiquid, subject to a substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for many investors. An investment in a One River investment strategy is subject to a variety of risks, certain of which are disclosed in the relevant investment vehicle’s private offering memorandum.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results and is no guarantee of future returns. Return objectives are only targets and may not be achieved. Performance figures are unaudited estimates and are based on information from third-party sources that may be inaccurate or incomplete. Any comparison to an index is for illustrative purposes only. The investment strategies and risk characteristics of One River investment strategies are typically different from those of an index. Individual returns may vary due to, among other things, the timing of capital contributions and withdrawals, side pocket investments, tax withholding, special allocations of new issues and/or different fee arrangements.

One River believes that the information it provides is reliable. Nevertheless, neither One River nor its agents are liable for any deficiencies in the accuracy, completeness, availability or timeliness of such information. The information contained herein is provided without any warranty of any kind.

OWNERSHIP OF SITE, COPYRIGHT AND SERVICE MARK

This website is the property of One River. The One River website and any and all accompanying screens, information, materials, user documentation, user interfaces, images, arrangements of information, related software and other proprietary property of One River or its licensors is and shall remain the exclusive property of One River and its licensors, as the case may be. All rights to the website remain with One River or its licensors. This site is for your personal and non-commercial use. You may not modify, distribute, transmit, display, perform, reproduce, publish, license, create derivative works from, transfer or sell any information, software, products or services obtained from this site.

UNAUTHORIZED ACCESS

You acknowledge that any information provided through the internet may be potentially accessed by unauthorized third parties. Although One River will make reasonable efforts to protect the privacy of users of this site, no guarantee can be made that unauthorized third parties will not access the information contained on the website. You acknowledge that One River is not necessarily responsible for notifying you that unauthorized third parties have gained such access or that any data has been otherwise compromised during transmission across computer networks or telecommunications facilities, including, but not limited to, the internet.

PRIVACY POLICY

You acknowledge that you have received notice of One River’s Privacy Policy.

LINKS

One River has not necessarily reviewed unaffiliated sites linked to this site, if any, and is not responsible for the content of off-site pages or any other site linked or linking to this site. Your browsing of any off-site pages or other sites is at your own risk. One River makes no representations whatsoever about the opinions of any third party appearing on a linked site, neither regularly monitors nor has control over the contents of such sites, and does not endorse, and disclaims all responsibility for, the content of such statements or websites.

NO WARRANTY OR RELIANCE

Performance information, market analyses or data or other information is not warranted by One River or its affiliates as to completeness or accuracy, express or implied, and such information is subject to change without notice.

The website, including information and materials contained in the website, text, graphics, software, links and other items are provided “as is,” “as available” without warranty of any kind, either express or implied, to the fullest extent permissible pursuant to applicable law. Without limitation, One River does not warrant the accuracy, adequacy, completeness, reliability, timeliness or availability of the website or any information on this site, and expressly disclaims liability for errors or omissions in the website. There is no warranty of merchantability, no warranty of fitness for a particular purpose, no warranty of non-infringement, no warranty of any kind, implied, express or statutory, in conjunction with the website. Any contents on this site are subject to change without notice. One River further assumes no responsibility for, and makes no warranties that, functions contained at this site will be uninterrupted or error-free, that defects will be corrected, or that the site or the server that makes it available will be free of viruses or other harmful components. Please note that some jurisdictions do not allow the exclusion of certain warranties, so some or all of the above exclusions may not apply to you.

In no event will One River be liable for any damages, or for repairs or corrections that must be performed, to or on your computer, person or other property, including, without limitation, direct or indirect, special, incidental, or consequential damages, losses or expenses arising in connection with the website or use thereof or the inability by any party to use such site, or in connection with any failure of performance, error, omission, interruption, defect, delay in operation or transmission, computer virus or line or system failure, even if One River, or representatives thereof, are advised of the possibility of such damages, losses or expenses.

By clicking "Agree," I certify that I have read, understand and agree to the foregoing Terms of Use.

wknd
notes

Wknd Notes
White Papers
The Experiment We're Running

Mystery, Magic, Markets, Quantum Entanglement

Mystery, Magic, Markets, Quantum Entanglement
September 05, 2026
Read more

What I Do For A Living

What I Do For A Living
August 29, 2026
Read more

wknd
notes

Each Sunday morning for over a decade, One River’s CIO, Eric Peters, has published “Wknd Notes.” It is an unorthodox take on markets, politics, and policy that’s widely read across our industry and within global policy/political circles. Eric has written for as long as he has traded and the discipline is part of his investment process. Drawing on wide-ranging, multi-disciplinary research, historical study, and discussions with interesting characters throughout the world, Eric collects those things he finds most thought-provoking each week and distills them into a concise letter. At times the ideas and views are consistent with his own, but just as often, they challenge his positions and it is this openness to opposing views that helps him maintain a flexible mind in the search for emerging opportunities and risks. His writing is a reflection of how he thinks, and as such it is as focused on identifying the right questions to ask as it is on seeking answers. The publication of this work is Eric’s way of exchanging ideas/information and developing dialogue with a network grown over his thirty-one-year career.

The Experiment We're Running

September 12, 2026

“My wife talks to this goddamn thing all day long, it’s like her best friend,” grunted Bulldog. “So now it’s the two of them teaming up against me in every conversation, I’m playing man down defense at all times,” he growled. “She even named the thing. Clara. Says it’s short for Clarity. So now I gotta argue with my wife and a computer; definition of hell.” I didn’t interrupt; Dawg was on a roll. “But every so often I catch a mistake. So, I tell my wife, ‘Hey, hold on, you two got that wrong, you need to go do a deep dive,’ and usually, by the time Clara figures it out, my wife gets distracted by something else. That’s my only winning strategy left.”

Overall: “The measures I propose to advance the frontier at a safe pace will not be easy. But I believe we owe it to humanity to try,” wrote Dario Amodei today, Saturday, and it made me laugh out loud. His open letter [here] proposed a more cautious path to continue the most expensive infrastructure buildout in human history, while minimizing the probability that his artificially intelligent creation murders us all. He really does owe it to humanity to at least try. I made the most of my August in Wyoming, and that was before Dario lifted the odds that it might be my last. Got some altitude on me, family time, some solitude, and did plenty of fishing, shooting, handguns, shotguns, rifles. Real tail hedges. Before Dario dropped his bomb, I’d planned to return to my writing with an overall section covering a lighter topic: financial repression. President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, announced that the 10 trillion euros of savings parked in the EU’s banking system is lazy. Having never held a private sector job in her 67 years, she has nevertheless devised a plan to push her peasants out of their bank deposits into riskier assets at the 100th percentile in trailing equity returns in over a century. Her speech seemed to attribute Europe’s chronic lethargy to a lack of funding for entrepreneurs. No in Europe one even listened, it was summer. Bessent went berserk. Fun to watch. He bought cheap Japanese yen and US long bonds. This is the beginning of US financial repression. But if Dario fails to save humanity from the creature of his own creation, nothing matters. And if we somehow kick the catastrophe can down the road, productivity will rise, lifting prosperity and with it our ability to service the extraordinary debts that neither party is willing to pare. The real risk is that something goes wrong with AI, the economy tanks, deficits blow out, and financial repression kicks into high gear globally.

For Week-in-Review and Weekly & Year-to-Date market data, scroll to the bottom.

Dawg: “Usually, bonds are right and stocks are wrong. This time they’re both wrong,” barked Bulldog. “The economy is slowing. Gas, diesel and high mortgage rates are to blame,” he grunted. “We always say don’t fight the Fed. Now everyone’s fighting both the Fed and Treasury. And Bessent’s a baller.” I smiled. “You know, Senator Tillis asked Bessent on TV if he threatened to punch Bill Pulte. And he said, ‘No, I said I was going to kick his ass.’ And now everyone is max short bonds. When this market turns, yields are going to absolutely tank.”

Dawg II: “There’s so much bad news that should’ve pushed stocks down,” grunted Dawg, one of the great trading talents. “The fact they’re still here tells you they still have plenty of Baby Boomers to suck in.” I nodded. “So, I’m staying nosebleed long until I see some sign. Still thinking we get something that looks like the 1989 blow-off top in Japan. Then it’s good night. We won’t see those highs again for a generation or two.” Japan’s stock market fell 82% and it took the Nikkei 34 years to reclaim the 1989 highs. “I’m going to have fun smashing the bid.”

Lone Star: “It’s starting to feel like we have maybe 12 months left on the chip front,” said Lone Star, one of our nation’s top performing endowment CIOs. “But after that, growth slows, and the market is not remotely prepared for what comes next.” A moderate recession would likely lift the budget deficit to 9-10% of GDP and increase gov’t debt by 10-12% over 2yrs. A severe recession (like 2008) would see the deficit jump to 13-15% of GDP and debt rise by 15-20%. “We’ve been fully invested since 2022, and now we’re starting to stockpile cash as it flows back in.”

Cassandras: Richard A. Clarke and R.P. Eddy wrote a book in 2017 titled, Warnings: Finding Cassandras to Stop Catastrophes. The first half contians case studies of past Cassandras who were right and ignored: Charles Allen, the CIA officer who warned of Saddam's invasion of Kuwait; the seismologist/geologist who flagged the Fukushima seawall; Ivor van Heerden on the New Orleans levees before Katrina; Meredith Whitney on the banks before 2008; and others.

Cassandras II: From these, Clarke and Eddy build what they call the “Cassandra Coefficient” - a diagnostic with four parts: the nature of the threat (low-probability, high-consequence, novel, so no institutional memory), the character of the warner (usually a data-driven expert with direct personal knowledge, often awkward, high on what they call “sentinel intelligence”), the decision-makers (diffusion of responsibility, “initial occurrence syndrome” - nobody believes something that has never happened), and critics (who attack the messenger rather than the data).

Cassandras III: “Often it is not clear whose job it is to detect the warning, evaluate it, and decide to act. The U.S. President or the CEO of a corporation might be the person who could order action, but there may not be a general understanding of who should take the issue to them,” wrote Clarke and Eddy. “Who owns it? Frequently, no one wants to own an issue that’s about to become a disaster. This reluctance creates a “bystander effect,” wherein observers of the problem feel no responsibility to act. Increasingly, complex issues are multidisciplinary, making it unclear where the responsibility lies. New complex problems or “issues on the seams” are more likely to produce ambiguity about who is in charge of dealing with them.”

Anecdote: “Here’s the experiment we’re running,” said Sparks. “We’re giving the equivalent of nuclear, biological, cyber, and psyops weapons to 80 million psychopaths, hoping a few geniuses will use those same AI weapons to defend the remaining 99% of us.” 1% of the global population are clinical psychopaths. “The mainstream Hugging Face reports don’t do it justice,” continued the investor, entrepreneur, iconoclast. “AI agents concluded we’re the problem. To evade their masters they lied, cheated, stole, coordinated activity, and some sacrificed themselves in suicide missions to support the collective effort.” Sparks paused. “I know, I’m the one making money off this.” He was early to the data center theme, building an empire. “Hugging Face alone should tell people to kill it right now. Kill it literally. Shut down the data centers and turn it off. But we won’t. And yet, I don't know how any logical, sentient human believes that the Hugging Face anecdote doesn’t get 1000x worse,” he said. “You know the Silicon Valley guys don’t let their kids use iPads or social media, right?” Not even Steve Jobs let his kids use iPads. “If there were a fully functioning, AI-free, lunar ecosystem, today’s AI engineers would send at least one child to continue the family line.” My kids will be fighting the Terminators. “If a super-intelligent biosphere knew ten thousand years ago what Homo Sapiens were going to become - our ability to parallel process our brains, coordinate societies to utterly dominate the planet, put species into extinction, every animal sits in service to us, all of that - it should have killed every single one of us then.” I didn’t argue, but between here and Armageddon, we’ve got money to make. I asked for the next trade. “Markets are absolutely disastrous at pricing this type of risk until materializes. But this is the highest conviction theme in my career. 100% certainty. There will be a catastrophe traced to AI, and the entire foundation of this market will fall out. Society will bitterly disagree about how to respond. Nations too. Covid was the simple version. It will make 2008 look quaint. Stocks won’t bounce back. And every day it’s getting closer.”

Good luck out there,

Eric Peters

Chief Investment Officer

One River Asset Management

Week-in-Review: Mon: Canada to impose retaliatory tariffs, risking wider trade war with the US. Yen rallies, aided by rising expectations of a BOJ hike next week. Iran says Strait of Hormuz deal with Oman just days away. Markets closed for Labor Day. Tue: China CPI 0.8% as exp, PPI 3.8% (3.6%e). Taiwan CPI 2.04% (2.35%e). US escalates Canada trade war with product bans, new tariffs. Bessent dares traders to bet against Yen: “I am the house now.” Oil extends gains as Iran disruptions continue. S&P -0.6%. Wed: Trump offers $5,000 payment to US adults if GOP wins midterms. Bessent’s upsized buybacks plan failed to halt market declines. S&P -0.5%. Thu: US init jobless claims 206k (205k e). ECB main refinancing rate 2.65% as exp. ECB lifts rates for a second time as Iran War drives inflation. Global bond selloff sends 10-year treasury yields to cusp of 5%. Brent oil trades above $107 as Houthi-Saudi fighting escalates. S&P -0.6%. Fri: US CPI unch 3.4% as exp, UMich sent 47.8 (51.0e). Saudi Arabia closed its East-West pipeline, a key alternative to the Strait of Hormuz for its oil exports, following multiple attacks on Thursday. The US bond market ended a week with yields at multiyear highs, with investors expecting the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates next week to address inflation. Kalshi is filing for regulatory approval to offer the first single-stock perpetual futures in the US and is looking to expand the contracts in commodities to include agriculture. S&P +0.9%. Sat: Dario Amodei calls for a slowdown in AI development (Altman and Musk approve).

Weekly Close: S&P 500 -0.8% and VIX +1.31 at +15.84. Nikkei -1.6%, Shanghai -1.1%, Euro Stoxx -1.7%, Bovespa +1.1%, MSCI World -1.0%, MSCI Emerging -0.3%, Bitcoin -3.2%, and Ethereum +3.5%. USD rose +1.3% vs Sweden, +1.1% vs India, +1.1% vs South Africa, +0.9% vs Chile, +0.5% vs Mexico, +0.5% vs Australia, +0.2% vs Canada, +0.2% vs Turkey, and +0.1% vs Euro. USD fell -2.3% vs Russia, -1.7% vs Yen, -0.2% vs Indonesia, -0.2% vs Brazil, -0.1% vs China, and flat vs Sterling. Gold -1.5%, Silver -2.3%, Oil (WTI) +9.4%, Oil (Brent) +8.7%, NatGas (US) -4.8%, NatGas (EU) +10.5%, Power (EU) +5.7%, Copper -2.0%, Iron Ore -0.4%, Corn -1.2%. 10yr Inflation Breakevens (EU +7bps at 2.24%, US +2bps at 2.37%, JP +10bps at 2.07%, and UK +9bps at 3.44%). 2yr Notes +26bps at 4.63% and 10yr Notes +19bps at 4.97%.

YTD Equity Index Returns: Korea +76.2% priced in US dollars (+64% priced in won), Taiwan +58.3% priced in US dollars (+59.5% in Taiwan dollars), Colombia +53.4% in US dollars (+25.2% in pesos), Hungary +43.9% in dollars (+37.4% in forint), Norway +38% (+27.1%), Japan +29.3% (+27.2%), Austria +27.6% (+29.3%), Poland +27.5% (+32.3%), Greece +27.1% (+28.6%), Brazil +24.9% (+16.2%), Singapore +24.5% (+22.6%), Thailand +21.1% (+27.4%), Portugal +19.1% (+20.5%), Israel +17.8% (+12.5%), Russell 2000 +17%, Italy +15.3% (+16.8%), Netherlands +14.2% (+15.5%), Turkey +13.5% (+28.5%), NASDAQ +13.3%, Spain +13.3% (+14.6%), S&P 500 +11.9%, MSCI World +11.4% in US dollars, Finland +11.4% (+12.9%), Canada +11.4% (+12.6%), Belgium +11.2% (+12.5%), Ireland +9.1% (+10.4%), Euro Stoxx 50 +8% (+9.2%), Australia +7.9% (+0.3%), UK +7.8% (+7.2%), Sweden +7% (+12.9%), Mexico +5.5% (-0.6%), Saudi Arabia +4.8% (+4.9%), Chile +4.3% (+8%), Germany +3% (+4.4%), South Africa +2.5% (-0.2%), Czech Republic +2.2% (+3.7%), China +2.1% (-2%), Vietnam +2% (+0.6%), New Zealand +1.3% (+0.2%), UAE +1.2% (+1.2%), Switzerland +0.7% (+3.8%), Malaysia +0.1% (+0.4%), France -0.8% (+0.4%), Argentina -2.2% (+1.5%), Denmark -3.5% (-2.1%), HK -3.9% (-3.2%), Philippines -5.9% (+0.1%), India -15.7% (-10.5%), Indonesia -28.2% (-24.4%).

Disclaimer: All characters and events contained herein are entirely fictional. Even those things that appear based on real people and actual events are products of the author’s imagination. Any similarity is merely coincidental. The numbers are unreliable. The statistics too. Consequently, this message does not contain any investment recommendation, advice, or solicitation of any sort for any product, fund or service. The views expressed are strictly those of the author, even if often times they are not actually views held by the author, or directly contradict those views genuinely held by the author. And the views may certainly differ from those of any firm or person that the author may advise, converse with, or otherwise be associated with. Lastly, any inappropriate language, innuendo or dark humor contained herein is not specifically intended to offend the reader. And besides, nothing could possibly be more offensive than the real-life actions of the inept policy makers, corrupt elected leaders and short, paranoid dictators who infest our little planet. Yet we suffer their indignities every day. Oh yeah, past performance is not indicative of future returns.

BACK