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wknd
notes

Wknd Notes
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wknd notes: The Blow Off Rally

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wknd notes: magnificently complex, sublimely flawed

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wknd
notes

Each Sunday morning for over a decade, One River’s CIO, Eric Peters, has published “Wknd Notes.” It is an unorthodox take on markets, politics, and policy that’s widely read across our industry and within global policy/political circles. Eric has written for as long as he has traded and the discipline is part of his investment process. Drawing on wide-ranging, multi-disciplinary research, historical study, and discussions with interesting characters throughout the world, Eric collects those things he finds most thought-provoking each week and distills them into a concise letter. At times the ideas and views are consistent with his own, but just as often, they challenge his positions and it is this openness to opposing views that helps him maintain a flexible mind in the search for emerging opportunities and risks. His writing is a reflection of how he thinks, and as such it is as focused on identifying the right questions to ask as it is on seeking answers. The publication of this work is Eric’s way of exchanging ideas/information and developing dialogue with a network grown over his thirty-one-year career.

wknd notes: The Blow Off Rally

April 18, 2026

“The president of the United States made seven claims in one hour, all of which are false,” said General Ghalibaf, a leading Iranian negotiator. “They did not win the war with these lies, they will certainly not get anywhere in negotiations either,” he said Friday night, continuing the negotiations, closing the Strait of Hormuz once again, citing America’s continued blockade. “Maybe I won’t extend it,” said Trump, referring to this coming Wednesday’s ceasefire expiration. “So you have the blockade, and unfortunately we’ll have to start dropping bombs again,” Trump told reporters on Air Force One. As the only liquid market open during the weekend, Bitcoin fell 2.5% to $75,550 on the rising tensions.

 

Overall: “Iran has agreed to never close the Strait of Hormuz again. It will no longer be used as a weapon against the world!” posted President Trump on Friday morning. The Nasdaq closed the week at another new all-time high, extending its winning streak to thirteen days. It is as if nothing can hold this market down for very long. Not a Persian excursion. Not another energy crisis. Not an 85% probability that Democrats take the House in November. Nor a 50% probability that they’ll take the Senate. Not evidence that China helped Iran target US bases. Not the recent congressional scandals. Not a fight with the Fed Chairman. Not even a fight between the President and the Pope. It is generally true that a market that refuses to fall on bad news must rally. And vice versa. But you tend to only discover the real reasons why that’s the case after the move is mostly over. One thing that continues to get too little attention is the chronic US federal budget deficit, that has the effect of pumping a stunning amount of money into the system year after year. In 2026, the deficit should be $1.9trln, or roughly 5.8% of GDP. Some say it’ll be 7%. As defense spending surges across our fracturing world, and governments race to secure supplies of critical inputs, while rebuilding vital infrastructure (including AI), deficits will rise, along with the supply of money. US money market funds are now $7.6trln, near record highs. A decade ago, they were just $2.7trln. And bank deposits are roughly $19trln today, up from approximately $9.5tln in 2016. That’s a lot of money, sitting in safety, not earning much of a return. The S&P 500 rallied nearly 200% in that 10-year period. The Case Shiller home price index is up 83%. And of course, the US federal government debt has grown by $20trln in that period, roughly doubling to $40trln. Back in 2016 the debt-to-GDP ratio was 75%, and now it’s 100%. That’s a lot of cash to wash through the system.

 

For Week-in-Review and Weekly & Year-to-Date market data, scroll to the bottom.

 

Dawg: “I got my last worthless option expiring tomorrow,” growled Bulldog on Monday. He had been selling loads of put options on the S&P 500 into the panic of Trump’s Persian excursion. “I ain’t selling another option for a long time, the next option I trade, I’ll be buying puts,” grunted Bulldog, one of the great trading talents. “It’s time for a blow off rally. This one’s going to be a parabolic explosion.” Dawg lay sprawled on the floor, oozing drool, his lower lip packed with dip, always Copenhagen. “And it’s just going to get steeper and steeper till gravity takes hold.”

 

Dawg II: “There’s a schedule to how you trade this stage of the cycle,” said Bulldog. “First, buy the precious metals - and I don’t even want to tell how much I have.” He literally tells me every time we speak. Dawg started buying after Russia invaded and the EU and US froze Putin’s piggybank. “Then you buy guns, cause that’s what everyone does once they own too much gold.” Historically true. “Do you have any idea how many goddamn guns I own now?” asked Bulldog, wildly worked up. “Three more than the last time we spoke,” I answered, confident, correct.

 

Dawg III: “This will probably be the biggest rally we’ve seen in our lives,” said Dawg. “The whole AI thing, the infrastructure build out is real, the data centers are real, the foreign investment inflows that Trump squeezed out of Saudi and all the others – that’s real,” he said. “Trump is blockading the Strait. So now everyone’s got to buy oil from the US. They got no choice,” he said. “US GDP numbers are going to be insane. Staggering. I don’t even know how high they could be, but off the charts high. And everyone’s pessimistic and underinvested.”

 

Dawg IV: “The sequence of what’s happening is just unparalleled in terms of outcomes for the United States,” grunted Bulldog. “This isn’t going to be a forever war. Iran’s not going to have the uranium. The world’s going to get a massive bump from that. It probably will cost us a trillion, but we’ll make a lot back from selling oil,” said Dawg. “So, we’re going to enter a sweet spot.” Once we get through this war. “So, the dollar has probably peaked for this cycle, vol will grind lower, and you tell me, the CTAs will need to keep buying stocks, right?” And I nodded.

 

Dawg V: “Trump’s excursion scared the living crap out of everybody because it was like PTSD from Iraq and Afghanistan,” said Dawg. “But it’s nothing like that, and pretty soon, everyone is just going to settle in. Then they’ll be talking about data centers again. AI infrastructure. And it’s almost self-reinforcing that people will be getting in because they fear missing it,” he said. “Hey Bob, you’re retiring next month. Why are you buying Nvidia? And Bob will say, because it’s going up and I got some cash! This blow-off rally will be something like that psychologically.”

 

Anecdote: “What would be a staggering rally for the S&P over the next 3-6 months?” barked Bulldog, one of the true trading greats. Whatever number I gave him, he was going to say something bigger. “Yeah, 25% ain’t going do it,” he said, kind of disgusted with my answer. “A 35-40% rally from here is what I’m seeing,” said Dawg. “I’ve been waiting for this final leg for four years, and I obviously didn’t expect the Persian excursion, but it’s the perfect catalyst to springboard things higher,” he said. “So, I’m nosebleed long stocks, recklessly long gold, silver too.” I mentioned his guns. “Yeah, guns of course,” he said, laughing, finally. “And I’m buying treasury bonds. Because after this market rolls over, rates are going back to zero, maybe negative, and the Fed balance sheet will balloon.” Dawg never cares who runs the Fed, because interest rate cuts and paper printing are its only tools. “At the highs, the economy will be ripping, earnings too, the AI dream will be front and center, it’ll be bull market nirvana,” he said. “But once those shovels really start hitting the dirt, the AI infrastructure trade will be over, and the market will hunt for what comes next.” That’s how markets work. “Tell me what drove the 1989 blow off top in Japan.” So I recounted the Nikkei boom/bust. “Yeah, that’s what happened,” he said, a bit annoyed I knew. “That’s what I’m looking for here. A generational blow off top. And on the backside of this bull market, we’re going to see relentless selling by Baby Boomers. They own too much stock and too many big houses. There are not enough young people to buy them all unless they get way cheaper,” said Dawg. “And the thing about bear markets, is there’s always something you didn’t see coming. AI is like splitting the atom. It’s incredible technology. But it could be horrible for the average person. Who knows, maybe that’ll be the death blow.”

 

Good luck out there,

Eric Peters

Chief Investment Officer

One River Asset Management

 

Week-in-Review: Mon: US existing home sales 3.98m (4.05m e). China M2 money supply 8.5% (8.9%e), exports 2.5% (8.6%e), Imports 27.8% (13.9%e). India CPI 3.40% as exp. Singapore GDP 4.6% (5.8%e). Trump vows to eliminate Iranian ships close to US Hormuz blockade. Hungary’s forint surged following Viktor Orban’s defeat to Peter Magyar, as the new Prime Minister set out EU goals. S&P +1.0%. Tue: US PPI final demand 4.0% (4.6%e). South Korea unemp rate SA 2.7% (2.9%e). Oil plunges as US and Iran weigh second round of truce talks. Bessent says Trump’s tariff rates could be restored by July. S&P +1.2%. Wed: Israel CPI 1.9% (2.0%e).  Australia unemp rate 4.3% as exp. China GDP 5.0% (4.8%e), IP 5.7% (5.3%e), ret sales 1.7% (2.4%e). Trump said prospects for a deal with Iran are “looking very good.” Allbirds shares rise as the company pivots from sneakers to AI compute infrastructure with NewBird AI rebrand. S&P +0.8%. Thu: US init jobless claims 207k (213k e), cont claims 1818k (1810k e), IP MoM -0.5% (0.1%e). UK IP -0.4% (-1.0%e). Eurozone CPI 2.6% (2.5%e), Core 2.3% as exp. Trump announced 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. Some Gulf Arab and European leaders believe that a US-Iran peace deal will take about six months and want the ceasefire to be extended to cover that timeframe. The American Securities Association warned that Mythos could put traders at risk through the SEC database. S&P +0.3%. Fri: Canada housing starts 235.9k (258.0k e). AI chipmaker Cerebras Systems files publicly for US IPO. Trump says Iran will suspend nuclear program as Hormuz reopens. US treasuries rally as falling oil boosts interest rate cut bets. S&P +1.2%. Sat: Iran closes Strait (citing US blockade).

 

Weekly Close: S&P 500 +4.5% and VIX -1.75 at +17.48. Nikkei +2.7%, Shanghai +1.6%, Euro Stoxx +1.9%, Bovespa -0.8%, MSCI World +3.9%, MSCI Emerging +3.2%, Bitcoin +5.8%, and Ethereum +7.9%. USD rose +0.5% vs Indonesia, +0.5% vs Turkey, +0.2% vs India, and +0.1% vs Mexico. USD fell -2.1% vs Chile, -1.5% vs Australia, -1.2% vs Russia, -1.1% vs Canada, -1.0% vs Sweden, -0.7% vs South Africa, -0.5% vs Brazil, -0.4% vs Sterling, -0.4% vs Yen, -0.4% vs Euro, and -0.2% vs China. Gold +1.9%, Silver +7.0%, Oil (WTI) -13.2%, Oil (Brent) -5.1%, NatGas (US) +1.0%, NatGas (EU) -11.2%, Power (EU) +2.2%, Copper +3.9%, Iron Ore -0.9%, Corn +1.4%. 10yr Inflation Breakevens (EU -2bps at 2.16%, US -3bps at 2.36%, JP -3bps at 1.89%, and UK -7bps at 3.39%). 2yr Notes -9bps at 3.71% and 10yr Notes -7bps at 4.25%.

 

YTD Equity Index Returns: Korea +45% priced in US dollars (+46.9% priced in won), Hungary +34.2% priced in US dollars (+25% in forint), Brazil +33.7% in dollars (+21.5% in reais), Norway +29.1% (+19.9%), Israel +26.5% (+17.6%), Taiwan +26.4% (+27.1%), Turkey +24% (+29.5%), Colombia +16.6% (+11.3%), Thailand +16.1% (+17.7%), Poland +15.7% (+15.3%), Japan +14.9% (+16.2%), Mexico +13.4% (+8.6%), Chile +12.3% (+9%), Austria +12.3% (+11.9%), Russell 2000 +11.9%, Portugal +11.4% (+10.8%), Sweden +11.1% (+10.4%), Australia +10.6% (+2.7%), Belgium +10.3% (+9.7%), Saudi Arabia +10.1% (+10.1%), Greece +9.5% (+8.9%), Finland +9.3% (+8.9%), Italy +9.1% (+8.7%), Singapore +9% (+7.6%), Canada +8.7% (+8.3%), UK +8.2% (+7.4%), Netherlands +8.2% (+7.6%), South Africa +7.4% (+5.1%), Spain +7.4% (+6.8%), NASDAQ +5.3%, Euro Stoxx 50 +5.2% (+4.6%), MSCI World +5% in US dollars, China +4.6% (+2.1%), S&P 500 +4.1%, France +3.9% (+3.4%), Malaysia +3.6% (+0.9%), Switzerland +2.7% (+1.2%), Vietnam +1.7% (+1.8%), HK +1.5% (+2.1%), Germany +1.2% (+0.9%), Argentina +1.1% (-5.3%), Czech Republic +0.7% (+0.5%), Ireland -0.3% (-0.8%), UAE -0.7% (-0.7%), Philippines -2.1% (-0.9%), New Zealand -2.2% (-4.7%), Denmark -6.8% (-7.1%), India -9.4% (-6.8%), Indonesia -13.7% (-11.7%).

 

Disclaimer: All characters and events contained herein are entirely fictional. Even those things that appear based on real people and actual events are products of the author’s imagination. Any similarity is merely coincidental. The numbers are unreliable. The statistics too. Consequently, this message does not contain any investment recommendation, advice, or solicitation of any sort for any product, fund or service. The views expressed are strictly those of the author, even if often times they are not actually views held by the author, or directly contradict those views genuinely held by the author. And the views may certainly differ from those of any firm or person that the author may advise, converse with, or otherwise be associated with. Lastly, any inappropriate language, innuendo or dark humor contained herein is not specifically intended to offend the reader. And besides, nothing could possibly be more offensive than the real-life actions of the inept policy makers, corrupt elected leaders and short, paranoid dictators who infest our little planet. Yet we suffer their indignities every day. Oh yeah, past performance is not indicative of future returns.

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