Zipped up to Harvard Law School this week on a high-speed train, to speak about capital allocation in the fourth industrial revolution. Artemis lifted humanity back to the moon. Trump threatened to return Iran to the Stone Ages. I spent Good Friday getting my third knee surgery. And coming into Easter weekend, packed in ice and full of oxycodone, dusted off an old Anecdote (see below). Back next Sunday with full weekend notes.
For Week-in-Review and Weekly & Year-to-Date market data, scroll to the bottom.
Anecdote: Who is John Galt? Ayn Rand wrote Atlas Shrugged atop that question. At twenty-five years old, it infected me. Powerful ideas do. Her philosophical model, Objectivism, helped explain the world’s workings. At least for a time. I was predisposed to fall for it. Rugged individualism, laissez-faire capitalism, an abhorrence for state power - it left me longing to live in Galt’s Gulch, her mythical libertarian town, hidden high in the Rockies. But I chose a profession that forces one to maintain an open mind, question everything, even those things we cling to desperately. Especially those things. In time it struck me that while Rand’s paperback utopia may be the way to organize humanity in theory, it would create a living hell in practice. When pushed hard, I still claim to be a libertarian, but the truth is far more complicated. Because after decades of studying humanity, I’ve come to see that each of the great philosophies, the political theories, religions, and economic models have something important to offer. Our reality is an endless battle amongst them all, with the jagged front lines advancing and retreating. At the very moment a system appears triumphant, victorious, eternal, inevitable, the decay has already set in. That’s because the only immutable truth is that whatever we touch, we change in ways that reflect our likeness. And humans are as magnificently complex as we are sublimely flawed - were we not, the world would be awfully boring.
Good luck out there,
Eric Peters
Chief Investment Officer
One River Asset Management
Week-in-Review: Mon: Israel base rate unch 4.00% as exp. Japan jobless rate 2.6% (2.7%e). China mfg PMI 50.4 (50.1e), non-mfg PMI 50.1 (49.9e). South Korea IP -2.2% (0.7%e). India IP 5.2% (4.2%e). Trump tells aides he’s willing to end war without reopening Hormuz. Iran strikes Kuwaiti oil tanker off Dubai. Morgan Stanley’s E*Trade to lead SpaceX IPO for retail. S&P -0.4%. Tue: US conf board cons conf 91.8 (87.9e). Canada GDP 0.6% (0.4%e). Eurozone CPI 2.5% (2.6%e), Core 2.3% (2.4%e). UK GDP 1.0% as exp. US stocks rallied as hopes grew that Iran War would be nearing an end, as Trump announced he foresaw the US ending the conflict within two to three weeks. Anthropic accidentally exposed system behind Claude Code. S&P +2.9%. Wed: US ISM mfg 19.3% (12.2%e), ADP emp change 62k (40k e), cont claims 1841k (1837k e). South Korea CPI 2.2% (2.3%e). Trump hints at pulling US from NATO. Trump threatens to escalate Iran War, but says end is very close. S&P +0.7%. Thu: US init jobless claims 202k (212k e), trade balance -$57.3b (-$60.6b e). Trump to impose tariffs of as much as 100% on certain imported medicines to pressure drugmakers to manufacture more in the US. Trump restructures broad metals tariffs, but keeps 50% rate on many imported steel, aluminum, and copper products. Trump threatened Iran infrastructure as he presses for a deal. S&P +0.1%. Fri: US unemp rate 4.3% (4.4%e), change in nonfarm payrolls 178k (65k e). Turkey CPI 30.87% (31.40%e). French and Japanese-owned ships make first Hormuz crossings. Trump directs remaining Department of Homeland Security employees be paid as partial government shutdown continues. S&P 500 closed for Good Friday. Sat: Trump posts threat that Iran must open the Strait in 48 hours or “all Hell will reign down on them.”
Weekly Close: S&P 500 +3.4% and VIX -7.18 at +23.87. Nikkei -0.5%, Shanghai -0.9%, Euro Stoxx +3.7%, Bovespa +3.6%, MSCI World +3.2%, MSCI Emerging +0.3%, Bitcoin +1.5%, and Ethereum +3.2%. USD rose +0.4% vs Sterling, +0.4% vs Canada, +0.3% vs Turkey, +0.2% vs Indonesia, and +0.1% vs Sweden. USD fell -1.8% vs Russia, -1.8% vs India, -1.6% vs Brazil, -1.2% vs Mexico, -0.9% vs South Africa, -0.4% vs Chile, -0.4% vs China, -0.4% vs Yen, -0.3% vs Australia, and -0.1% vs Euro. Gold +3.4%, Silver +4.5%, Oil (WTI) +11.9%, Oil (Brent) +3.5%, NatGas (US) -7.4%, NatGas (EU) -8.2%, Power (EU) -4.9%, Copper +1.6%, Iron Ore -1.2%, Corn -2.1%. 10yr Inflation Breakevens (EU -1bp at 2.24%, US +5bps at 2.37%, JP +6bps at 1.91%, and UK flat at 3.50%). 2yr Notes -7bps at 3.84% and 10yr Notes -8bps at 4.35%.
March Mthly Close: S&P 500 -5.1% and VIX +5.39 at +25.25. Nikkei -13.2%, Shanghai -6.5%, Euro Stoxx -8.0%, Bovespa -0.7%, MSCI World -6.6%, MSCI Emerging -13.3%, Bitcoin +3.4%, and Ethereum +9.0%. USD rose +6.3% vs South Africa, +6.1% vs Chile, +5.6% vs Russia, +4.9% vs Sweden, +4.2% vs India, +4.1% vs Mexico, +3.2% vs Australia, +2.2% vs Euro, +2.0% vs Canada, +1.9% vs Sterling, +1.7% vs Yen, +1.3% vs Indonesia, +1.2% vs Turkey, +1.1% vs Brazil, and +0.5% vs China. Gold -11.5%, Silver -19.7%, Oil (WTI) +51.6%, Oil (Brent) +43.8%, NatGas (US) +0.1%, NatGas (EU) +61.1%, Power (EU) +20.7%, Copper -7.4%, Iron Ore +6.0%, Corn +2.1%. 10yr Inflation Breakevens (EU +44bps at 2.26%, US +5bps at 2.31%, JP +8bps at 1.79%, and UK +47bps at 3.55%). 2yr Notes +42bps at 3.80% and 10yr Notes +38bps at 4.32%.
Q1 Quarterly Close: S&P 500 -4.6% and VIX +10.30 at +25.25. Nikkei +1.4%, Shanghai -1.9%, Euro Stoxx -1.5%, Bovespa +16.3%, MSCI World -3.9%, MSCI Emerging -0.5%, Bitcoin -22.3%, and Ethereum -29.3%. USD rose +5.5% vs India, +3.5% vs Turkey, +3.3% vs Russia, +2.9% vs Chile, +2.8% vs Sweden, +2.3% vs South Africa, +1.9% vs Sterling, +1.8% vs Indonesia, +1.7% vs Euro, +1.4% vs Canada, and +1.3% vs Yen. USD fell -5.4% vs Brazil, -3.3% vs Australia, -1.3% vs China, and -0.4% vs Mexico. Gold +6.2%, Silver +5.2%, Oil (WTI) +77.9%, Oil (Brent) +72.6%, NatGas (US) -10.7%, NatGas (EU) +89.9%, Power (EU) +23.2%, Copper -2.2%, Iron Ore +1.4%, Corn +2.1%. 10yr Inflation Breakevens (EU +51bps at 2.26%, US +6bps at 2.31%, JP +2bps at 1.79%, and UK +62bps at 3.55%). 2yr Notes +32bps at 3.80% and 10yr Notes +15bps at 4.32%.
YTD Equity Index Returns: Norway +30.5% priced in US dollars (+25.9% priced in krone), Brazil +24% priced in US dollars (+16.7% priced in reais), Korea +21.7% priced in dollars (+27.6% in won), Israel +14.2% in dollars (+12.1% in shekels), Colombia +14% (+10.3%), Portugal +12.4% (+14.3%), Thailand +11% (+15.4%), Turkey +10.7% (+14.9%), Taiwan +10.4% (+12.5%), Hungary +10.1% (+11.7%), Mexico +9.7% (+8.4%), Saudi Arabia +7.3% (+7.4%), Singapore +6.6% (+6.5%), Poland +3.9% (+7.1%), UK +3.4% (+5.1%), Japan +3.3% (+5.5%), Argentina +3% (-1.7%), Canada +3% (+4.4%), Australia +2% (-1.5%), Russell 2000 +1.9%, Finland +1.9% (+3.8%), Malaysia +1.6% (+0.9%), Belgium +1% (+2.7%), Netherlands +0.9% (+2.6%), Austria +0.6% (+2.5%), Chile +0.5% (+2.5%), Sweden +0.4% (+2.9%), Spain -0.3% (+1.4%), Italy -0.4% (+1.5%), China -0.7% (-2.2%), South Africa -1.8% (+0.3%), Greece -1.8% (-0.1%), MSCI World -2.6% in US dollars, HK -2.7% (-2%), Switzerland -3.1% (-2.2%), Philippines -3.1% (-0.9%), Euro Stoxx 50 -3.4% (-1.7%), S&P 500 -3.8%, UAE -3.9% (-3.9%), France -3.9% (-2.3%), New Zealand -5.3% (-4.8%), Vietnam -5.8% (-5.6%), NASDAQ -5.9%, Germany -7.1% (-5.4%), Czech Republic -8.4% (-5.6%), Ireland -8.8% (-7.3%), Denmark -13.2% (-12.1%), India -15.9% (-13.1%), Indonesia -19.9% (-18.7%).
Disclaimer: All characters and events contained herein are entirely fictional. Even those things that appear based on real people and actual events are products of the author’s imagination. Any similarity is merely coincidental. The numbers are unreliable. The statistics too. Consequently, this message does not contain any investment recommendation, advice, or solicitation of any sort for any product, fund or service. The views expressed are strictly those of the author, even if often times they are not actually views held by the author, or directly contradict those views genuinely held by the author. And the views may certainly differ from those of any firm or person that the author may advise, converse with, or otherwise be associated with. Lastly, any inappropriate language, innuendo or dark humor contained herein is not specifically intended to offend the reader. And besides, nothing could possibly be more offensive than the real-life actions of the inept policy makers, corrupt elected leaders and short, paranoid dictators who infest our little planet. Yet we suffer their indignities every day. Oh yeah, past performance is not indicative of future returns.