One River Asset Management, LLC | Terms of Use

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wknd
notes

Wknd Notes
White Papers
wknd notes: We're Going to Finish This Together

wknd notes: The Worst Job In The World

wknd notes: The Worst Job In The World
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wknd notes: two opposing thoughts can be true at once

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wknd notes: A Pale Blue Dot

wknd notes: A Pale Blue Dot
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wknd notes: The Blow Off Rally

wknd notes: The Blow Off Rally
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wknd
notes

Each Sunday morning for over a decade, One River’s CIO, Eric Peters, has published “Wknd Notes.” It is an unorthodox take on markets, politics, and policy that’s widely read across our industry and within global policy/political circles. Eric has written for as long as he has traded and the discipline is part of his investment process. Drawing on wide-ranging, multi-disciplinary research, historical study, and discussions with interesting characters throughout the world, Eric collects those things he finds most thought-provoking each week and distills them into a concise letter. At times the ideas and views are consistent with his own, but just as often, they challenge his positions and it is this openness to opposing views that helps him maintain a flexible mind in the search for emerging opportunities and risks. His writing is a reflection of how he thinks, and as such it is as focused on identifying the right questions to ask as it is on seeking answers. The publication of this work is Eric’s way of exchanging ideas/information and developing dialogue with a network grown over his thirty-one-year career.

wknd notes: We're Going to Finish This Together

May 02, 2026

Dusted off an anecdote from 2025 about our second son, who is running his first marathon today up at the Academy. See you next Sunday with full weekend notes. All the very best, Eric

 

For Week-in-Review and Weekly & Year-to-Date market data, scroll to the bottom.

 

Anecdote (July 2025): “First half of the ruck went fast,” said Teddy, final day of Air Assault School, known as the toughest ten days in the army. Roughly half the cadets fail. On the last day of Air Assault, you must march 12-miles in less than 3hrs, carrying 40lbs of gear. “Then out of nowhere, I cramped up. I was well ahead of time and kept going, punching my legs to loosen up.” A pace car with paramedics carries up the rear, picking up the broken pieces, hovering like vultures. “I must’ve gotten my hydration wrong, electrolytes, something. The cramps got progressively worse. At times my legs locked out, and I’d swing them outward as I shuffled and ran.” Teddy was a Track & Field kid, a pole vaulter, lean. Four years ago on New Year’s Eve, our family went around the table to discuss resolutions. “I’m going to get huge,” he announced. We all laughed. Now he’s a beast. And of all the things that Teddy thought might take him down at Air Assault, physical demands were last on the list. “I could feel the pace car creeping up, stalking me,” he said, the pain excruciating. “The car passed me, paramedics sized me up, said I should climb in, no way I could make it.” He carried on. “I found I could go for bursts and briefly get back in front of the car. I refused to lose to it.” On they went, leapfrogging. “But I was gradually losing ground, it looked over. And right then, the most badass of all officers came up beside me - ‘We’re going to finish this together cadet,’ he yelled.” Leadership. “I told him I had to puke from the pain. He said, ‘Hell yeah!’ And I did. ‘Do this for your future soldiers!’ he said as we marched together. And we crossed the finish line, absolute dead last, with 1 minute left, the whole class cheering.”

 

Good luck out there,

Eric Peters

Chief Investment Officer

One River Asset Management

 

Week-in-Review: Mon: BOJ target rate unch 0.75% as exp, Japan jobless rate 2.7% (2.6%e). Singapore IP 10.1% (6.0%e). China blocks Meta’s $2bn acquisition of AI firm Manus. Oil rises as stalled US-Iran peace talks keep Hormuz shut. White House Correspondents dinner shooting suspect charged with trying to kill Trump. S&P +0.1%. Tue: US cons conf 92.8 (89.0e). Chile overnight rate target unch 4.50% as exp. Hungary CB rate decision unch 6.35% as exp. India IP 4.1% (2.7%e). Australia CPI 4.6% (4.8%e). US threatens to sanction banks that support Chinese private refiners that buy Iranian oil. OpenAI-linked stocks dropped on report it failed to meet sales and user targets.  S&P -0.5%. Wed: US FOMC rate decision upper bound unch 3.75% as exp, lower bound unch 3.50% as exp. Bank of Canada rate decision unch 2.25% as exp. Brazil Selic rate 14.50% as exp. China mfg PMI 50.3 (50.1e). South Korea IP 3.6% (4.0%e). The Trump administration opposes a plan by Anthropic to expand access to its Mythos AI model. Jerome Powell said he will remain at the Federal Reserve as a governor after his term as chair ends. Treasuries slumped as traders boosted bets the central bank may need to raise interest rates amid persistent inflation pressures following hawkish dissents. S&P flat. Thu: Bank of England bank rate unch 3.75% as exp. Eurozone CPI 3.0% as exp. Taiwan GDP 13.69% (10.30%e). the yen surged after Japan intervened in the foreign exchange market following a “final” warning by officials to investors against selling the currency. Trump said he was sticking with a naval blockade amid concerns the Strait of Hormuz would not reopen. S&P +1.0%. Fri: US ISM mfg 52.7 (53.2e). Spirit bailout talks said to have ceased with closure imminent. Coinbase said a deal had been reached on a key stablecoin yield provision, potentially clearing a path for sweeping crypto legislation to move forward. S&P +0.3%. Sat: Trump is reviewing latest Iranian proposal.

 

Weekly Close: S&P 500 +0.9% and VIX -1.72 at +16.99. Nikkei -0.3%, Shanghai +0.8%, Euro Stoxx +0.1%, Bovespa -1.8%, MSCI World +0.9%, MSCI Emerging -0.5%, Bitcoin +1.0%, and Ethereum -0.7%. USD rose +0.9% vs Indonesia, +0.8% vs South Africa, +0.7% vs India, +0.4% vs Mexico, +0.4% vs Chile, +0.4% vs Turkey, and flat vs Euro. USD fell -1.5% vs Yen, -0.7% vs Australia, -0.6% vs Canada, -0.5% vs Brazil, -0.4% vs Russia, -0.4% vs Sterling, -0.1% vs Sweden, and -0.1% vs China. Gold -2.0%, Silver -0.7%, Oil (WTI) +8.0%, Oil (Brent) +9.1%, NatGas (US) +3.6%, NatGas (EU) +2.1%, Power (EU) -3.0%, Copper -1.7%, Iron Ore +0.6%, Corn +3.6%. 10yr Inflation Breakevens (EU +12bps at 2.35%, US +7bps at 2.50%, JP +5bps at 1.99%, and UK +5bps at 3.53%). 2yr Notes +10bps at 3.88% and 10yr Notes +7bps at 4.37%.

 

April Monthly Close: S&P 500 +10.4% and VIX -8.36 at +16.89. Nikkei +16.1%, Shanghai +5.7%, Euro Stoxx +4.8%, Bovespa -0.1%, MSCI World +9.4%, MSCI Emerging +14.5%, Bitcoin +12.7%, and Ethereum +7.9%. USD rose +2.1% vs Indonesia, +1.6% vs Turkey, and +0.1% vs India. USD fell -7.7% vs Russia, -4.3% vs Brazil, -4.2% vs Australia, -2.9% vs Chile, -2.8% vs Sterling, -2.6% vs Mexico, -2.4% vs Sweden, -2.4% vs Canada, -1.6% vs South Africa, -1.5% vs Euro, -1.3% vs Yen, and -1.0% vs China. Gold -1.0%, Silver -1.9%, Oil (WTI) +12.8%, Oil (Brent) +14.8%, NatGas (US) -8.0%, NatGas (EU) -9.3%, Power (EU) -8.9%, Copper +5.6%, Iron Ore -0.5%, Corn +1.4%. 10yr Inflation Breakevens (EU +9bps at 2.35%, US +18bps at 2.49%, JP +18bps at 1.97%, and UK flat at 3.55%). 2yr Notes +8bps at 3.87% and 10yr Notes +5bps at 4.37%.

 

Year-to-Date Close: S&P 500 +5.3% and VIX +1.94 at +16.89. Nikkei +17.8%, Shanghai +3.6%, Euro Stoxx +3.2%, Bovespa +16.3%, MSCI World +5.2%, MSCI Emerging +13.9%, Bitcoin -12.5%, and Ethereum -23.7%. USD rose +5.6% vs India, +5.2% vs Turkey, +4.0% vs Indonesia, +0.7% vs South Africa, +0.3% vs Sweden, and +0.1% vs Euro. USD fell -9.5% vs Brazil, -7.3% vs Australia, -4.7% vs Russia, -3.0% vs Mexico, -2.3% vs China, -1.0% vs Canada, -0.9% vs Sterling, -0.2% vs Chile, and -0.1% vs Yen. Gold +5.1%, Silver +3.1%, Oil (WTI) +84.3%, Oil (Brent) +83.3%, NatGas (US) -19.4%, NatGas (EU) +72.0%, Power (EU) +13.4%, Copper +3.3%, Iron Ore +0.9%, Corn +4.5%. 10yr Inflation Breakevens (EU +60bps at 2.35%, US +24bps at 2.49%, JP +20bps at 1.97%, and UK +61bps at 3.55%). 2yr Notes +40bps at 3.87% and 10yr Notes +20bps at 4.37%.

 

YTD Equity Index Returns: Korea +52.7% priced in US dollars (+56.6% priced in won), Norway +33.4% priced in US dollars (+22.9% priced in krone), Taiwan +33.3% in US dollars (+34.4% in Taiwan dollars), Israel +29.2% in dollars (+19.3% in shekels), Brazil +28.1% (+16.3%), Hungary +27.1% (+20.5%), Turkey +21.9% (+28.2%), Japan +17.8% (+18.2%), Thailand +14.4% (+18.6%), Portugal +13.6% (+13.7%), Russell 2000 +13.3%, Finland +10% (+10.3%), Colombia +9.1% (+5.3%), Mexico +8.5% (+5.5%), Austria +8.5% (+8.8%), Poland +8.4% (+9.6%), Australia +8.3% (+0.2%), NASDAQ +8.1%, Canada +7.9% (+6.9%), Italy +7.1% (+7.3%), Singapore +6.8% (+5.7%), Saudi Arabia +6.6% (+6.6%), Netherlands +6.5% (+6.6%), China +6% (+3.6%), S&P 500 +5.6%, Sweden +5.6% (+6.2%), MSCI World +5.5% in US dollars, UK +5.5% (+4.4%), Belgium +5.3% (+5.4%), Malaysia +4.7% (+2.5%), Chile +3.9% (+4.1%), Vietnam +3.7% (+3.9%), Greece +3.1% (+3.2%), Spain +2.6% (+2.7%), Euro Stoxx 50 +1.6% (+1.6%), Switzerland +0.1% (-1%), HK -0.1% (+0.6%), France -0.5% (-0.4%), Germany -1.1% (-0.8%), New Zealand -1.2% (-3.8%), South Africa -1.6% (-0.7%), UAE -2% (-2%), Argentina -2.4% (-7.2%), Ireland -3.9% (-3.9%), Czech Republic -6.4% (-5.5%), Denmark -6.8% (-6.6%), Philippines -7.5% (-3.6%), India -13% (-8.2%), Indonesia -22.4% (-19.5%).

 

Disclaimer: All characters and events contained herein are entirely fictional. Even those things that appear based on real people and actual events are products of the author’s imagination. Any similarity is merely coincidental. The numbers are unreliable. The statistics too. Consequently, this message does not contain any investment recommendation, advice, or solicitation of any sort for any product, fund or service. The views expressed are strictly those of the author, even if often times they are not actually views held by the author, or directly contradict those views genuinely held by the author. And the views may certainly differ from those of any firm or person that the author may advise, converse with, or otherwise be associated with. Lastly, any inappropriate language, innuendo or dark humor contained herein is not specifically intended to offend the reader. And besides, nothing could possibly be more offensive than the real-life actions of the inept policy makers, corrupt elected leaders and short, paranoid dictators who infest our little planet. Yet we suffer their indignities every day. Oh yeah, past performance is not indicative of future returns.

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