“Did you see the news about Charlie Kirk?” I asked my youngest, Charlie, 16. I knew rather little about Kirk, but understood he resonated with young people. The graphic video of his assassination flooded my feeds. It had only been a day since the clip of Iryna Zarutska’s gruesome murder had done the same. The inhumanity of her killer, Iryna’s innocence, the cowardly, chilling indifference of bystanders. A darkness descending on civilized society. “It’s just awful,” said Charlie, emotional, his tone heartfelt. Which surprised me. “Dad, everyone my age knows Charlie Kirk, he’s all over our social media.”
Overall: “We signed four multibillion-dollar contracts with three different customers in Q1,” said Oracle CEO Safra Catz, her stock soaring 40% following the earnings announcement, an utterly extraordinary move for a company of its size. “We expect to sign up several additional multibillion-dollar customers, and RPO is likely to exceed half a trillion dollars.” That represented an astonishing 359% year-on-year gain. Truth be told, I had no idea what RPO meant, so I asked Grok. Remaining performance obligation (RPO) represents contractually obligated sales not yet included in revenue. I generally find that kind of stuff boring, but I was searching for innocuous crap to occupy my mind. Putin had sent dummy drones into Polish airspace. Israel had exterminated Hamas leaders in Qatar. Deadly clashes erupted in Nepal, sparked by government crackdowns on social media platforms - troops killed protestors, who in turn murdered government officials. 9-11 memorials. Charlie Kirk. Iryna. The heaviness of where we are at this moment, with the law of the jungle ascendant after so many decades of what felt like something else. But the world is forever changing, and for all our self-inflicted harm, humanity’s ascent remains history’s most persistent trend. Our job, as investors, is to bet on the shifting drivers of, and headwinds to, this upward course. We seek to identify mega macro trends as they unfold, gauging the probability of their persistence, and evaluating how fully they are priced. Oracle is +76% year-to-date. We still do not yet fully understand the race for AI dominance. It may be a winner takes all battle, and as such, it is entirely reasonable to spend as if one’s existence depends on victory. Palantir is +126% year-to-date. When superintelligence arrives, a small group of terrorists will have the power to inflict existential damage on society, perhaps humanity. To counter such threats, governments will invest vast sums to build surveillance states. And gold is +40% year-to-date. It is history’s timeless hedge for eras governed by the law of the jungle.
Week-in-Review: Mon: Japan GDP Ann QoQ 2.2% (1.0%e). China exports 4.4% (5.5%e), imports 1.3% (3.4%e), China trade balance $102.33b ($99.45b e). Indonesian assets fall after the removal of Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati in favor of Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa. French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou to resign after losing confidence vote. S&P +0.2%. Tue: Mexico CPI 3.57% (3.56%e). Chile overnight target rate 4.75% as exp. Gaza war tensions escalate following an Israeli strike on Hamas leaders in Doha. Oracle surges on cloud infrastructure forecast. S&P +0.3%. Wed: Russia CPI 8.14% (8.32%e). Japan PPI 2.7% as exp. Trump turns to appeals court to oust Cook, who likely will remain in her post and take part in next week’s rate setting meeting. Poland shoots down Russian drones after air space violation. Charlie Kirk is assassinated at outdoor event at Utah Valley University. S&P +0.3%. Thu: US CPI 2.9% as exp, jobless claims 263k (235k e), cont claims 1939k (1950k e). Mexico IP -2.7% (-0.9%e). ECB deposit rate 2.0% as exp. China warns Mexico following Mexico plans to raise tariffs on Chinese imports. S&P +0.9%. Fri: US UMich sentiment 55.4 (58.0e). India CPI 2.07% (2.11%e). Russia GDP 1.1% as exp. Russia key rate 17.0% (16.0%e). US urges G-7 sanctions on Russian oil exports. Apple delays iPhone Air release in mainland China due to regulatory approval issues. S&P -0.1%.
Weekly Close: S&P 500 +1.6% and VIX -0.42 at +14.76. Nikkei +4.1%, Shanghai +1.5%, Euro Stoxx +1.0%, Bovespa -0.3%, MSCI World +1.5%, MSCI Emerging +2.7%, Bitcoin +4.7%, and Ethereum +7.3%. USD rose +2.2% vs Russia, +0.3% vs Turkey, +0.2% vs Yen, +0.1% vs Canada, and flat vs India. USD fell -1.5% vs Mexico, -1.4% vs Australia, -1.2% vs Chile, -1.1% vs South Africa, -1.1% vs Brazil, -0.8% vs Sweden, -0.3% vs Sterling, -0.3% vs Indonesia, -0.1% vs Euro, and -0.1% vs China. Gold +0.9%, Silver +3.1%, Oil +1.3%, Copper +2.2%, Iron Ore +1.2%, Corn +2.9%. 10yr Inflation Breakevens (EU +3bps at 1.73%, US flat at 2.37%, JP -2bps at 1.57%, and UK flat at 3.11%). 2yr Notes +5bps at 3.56% and 10yr Notes -1bp at 4.07%.
2025 Year-to-Date Equity Index Returns: Greece +59% priced in US dollars (+40.4% priced in euros), Czech Republic +52.1% priced in US dollars (+30.3% in koruna), Hungary +51.7% in dollars (+27.6% in forint), Poland +51.6% (+33.7%), Colombia +51.1% (+33.8%), Spain +49.6% (+32%), Korea +49.6% (+41.5%), Austria +43.2% (+26.9%), Israel +42.8% (+30.3%), Mexico +40.9% (+24.8%), Italy +40.5% (+24.5%), South Africa +40.1% (+28.7%), Portugal +39.3% (+23%), Chile +39.3% (+34%), Norway +36.9% (+18.7%), Brazil +36.5% (+18.3%), Germany +34.3% (+19%), Ireland +32.8% (+17.2%), Finland +32.2% (+17.2%), HK +31.3% (+31.5%), Vietnam +27.1% (+31.6%), Belgium +26.9% (+12%), Sweden +25.3% (+6.1%), Euro Stoxx 50 +24.8% (+10.1%), Canada +23% (+18.4%), UK +23% (+13.6%), Singapore +22.2% (+14.7%), France +20.1% (+6%), Taiwan +19.9% (+10.6%), Switzerland +19.4% (+5.1%), Japan +19.4% (+12.2%), China +18.3% (+15.5%), Netherlands +17.2% (+3.4%), Australia +16.7% (+8.6%), MSCI World +14.7% in dollars, NASDAQ +14.7%, S&P 500 +11.9%, Indonesia +9.4% (+10.9%), Russell +7.5%, New Zealand +7.4% (+0.9%), UAE +6.3% (+6.3%), Malaysia +3.6% (-2.6%), India +2.9% (+6.2%), Thailand -0.4% (-7.6%), Philippines -5.2% (-6.4%), Turkey -9.8% (+5.5%), Saudi Arabia -13% (-13.2%), Denmark -17% (-26.3%), Argentina -50.7% (-30.5%).
Zero Sum: When I first arrived in Chicago, and headed to the commodity pits, I learned that in the futures markets, for every winner there was a loser. I loved that. It felt like the natural way of things, like a sports game, which is how I viewed trading. In some ways, I still do. But as the decades passed, and I learned more about how the world works, economics, politics, business, life, I came to see the path to real prosperity involved collaborations, win-win configurations. It’s kind of obvious, and like so many things, I was a late learner. But at least I figured it out.
Zero Sum II: Globalization was the grandest application of the idea that collaboration and win-win cooperation make us all richer. And for decades, this was pursued by our political, policy, and corporate leaders with growing intensity. But like all things when pushed to the extreme, globalization had rising costs. Pretty much every other aspect of how the world worked involved forms of cooperation too. Politics, for all its nastiness, required bipartisanship to get most things done. And of course, events like 9-11 drew Americans closer, mostly. Our forever wars too.
Zero Sum III: I don’t think anyone will ever identify the precise point where the mega macro trend toward greater cooperation turned. But it most certainly did. And not just when it comes to globalization, which has shifted in ways that a decade ago would have seemed inconceivable. International relations are following a similar path. I look at the stock market, its remarkable technology companies, which are coming to dominate in monopolistic ways. It no longer seems like we are living in a world of cooperation. The signs of winner-take-all are everywhere.
Zero Sum IV: Something similar appears to be manifesting in society too. Politics has grown increasingly dysfunctional. Our legal system as well. The kind of institutional cooperation that lifted us for generations appears to be in retreat. The trend toward winner-take-all is in ascent. And this applies to how our citizens treat each other. The willingness of our left and right to submit to the other for the sake of social cohesion and cooperation has been in steep decline. And we may soon see what it is like for a winner-take-all mindset to sweep society.
Zero Sum V: The stock market has so far celebrated the winner-take-all wave sweeping America and by extension, the world. It’s probably because as we transition to this new reality, filled with so many new and increasingly existential risks, vast sums will need to be borrowed and spent to win at all costs. But such competition feels to me like it will lead us all to something that more closely resembles a zero-sum game, or perhaps something worse. Because, of course, the opposite of cooperation is conflict. And throughout history, conflict makes us all poorer.
Anecdote: I remember hiding beneath my desk in 3rd grade. School shootings weren’t a thing back then. But the Soviets had their nukes pointed at Manhattan. So, when the siren went off, we learned to put our pencils down and curl up. Roots came out back then. Everyone watched it, learned about slavery, struggle, underground railroads, Kunta Kinte. My best friend was black, most were Jewish, Public School 158, York and 77th. Some kid asked my 4th grade teacher what an Aryan was, she said they looked like me. I had a few tough weeks on the playground after that. Half the school was bused in from the boroughs, mainly special needs kids, although that term wasn’t used back then. People used other words no longer said. They were desperately poor, pink scars on black skin, some were deaf, mute, a few had six fingers. We ate lunch together, shared recess in the tiny concrete square with tall chain-link fences. I got mugged a few times, those older kids with their pocketknives taught me to be aware of my surroundings. Learned to cross the street when I don’t like the look of things. Like I did with FTX. I ended up at Brown. And I remember you could say certain things, but not others, which seemed odd given the nature of what liberal arts was about. That never sat well with me. I was basically cool with anything if it didn’t hurt others. Always felt that no matter what you had to say, you should have the right to say it. It is better to have people say things in public, even if utterly odious, because that way, the weakness of their arguments, or the evil of their ways, is out in the open, free to be debated, litigated. It’s the hidden things that do us the greatest harm. Like predatory priests. But I never bothered to make a fuss about such things in college. And three decades later, it just feels like we got to a place where the limits on what we could say hit some sort of natural barrier. The pendulum is now going to swing a very long way in the other direction. And it’s going to get ugly.
Good luck out there,
Eric Peters
Chief Investment Officer
One River Asset Management
Disclaimer: All characters and events contained herein are entirely fictional. Even those things that appear based on real people and actual events are products of the author’s imagination. Any similarity is merely coincidental. The numbers are unreliable. The statistics too. Consequently, this message does not contain any investment recommendation, advice, or solicitation of any sort for any product, fund or service. The views expressed are strictly those of the author, even if often times they are not actually views held by the author, or directly contradict those views genuinely held by the author. And the views may certainly differ from those of any firm or person that the author may advise, converse with, or otherwise be associated with. Lastly, any inappropriate language, innuendo or dark humor contained herein is not specifically intended to offend the reader. And besides, nothing could possibly be more offensive than the real-life actions of the inept policy makers, corrupt elected leaders and short, paranoid dictators who infest our little planet. Yet we suffer their indignities every day. Oh yeah, past performance is not indicative of future returns.