One River Asset Management, LLC | Terms of Use

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wknd
notes

Wknd Notes
White Papers
wknd notes: Knowledge, Skill and Investing

wknd notes: surviving left tails, to be alive for the right ones

wknd notes: surviving left tails, to be alive for the right ones
June 13, 2026
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wknd notes: The Next Stage of Humanity’s Inexorable Advance

wknd notes: The Next Stage of Humanity’s Inexorable Advance
June 06, 2026
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wknd notes: Here I Am. Send Me.

wknd notes: Here I Am. Send Me.
May 23, 2026
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wknd notes: The Worst Job In The World

wknd notes: The Worst Job In The World
May 17, 2026
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wknd
notes

Each Sunday morning for over a decade, One River’s CIO, Eric Peters, has published “Wknd Notes.” It is an unorthodox take on markets, politics, and policy that’s widely read across our industry and within global policy/political circles. Eric has written for as long as he has traded and the discipline is part of his investment process. Drawing on wide-ranging, multi-disciplinary research, historical study, and discussions with interesting characters throughout the world, Eric collects those things he finds most thought-provoking each week and distills them into a concise letter. At times the ideas and views are consistent with his own, but just as often, they challenge his positions and it is this openness to opposing views that helps him maintain a flexible mind in the search for emerging opportunities and risks. His writing is a reflection of how he thinks, and as such it is as focused on identifying the right questions to ask as it is on seeking answers. The publication of this work is Eric’s way of exchanging ideas/information and developing dialogue with a network grown over his thirty-one-year career.

wknd notes: Knowledge, Skill and Investing

May 31, 2026

Dusted off an anecdote from 2016 about knowledge, skill and investing. See you next Sunday with full weekend notes. All the very best, Eric

 

For Week-in-Review and Weekly & Year-to-Date market data, scroll to the bottom.

 

Anecdote (Sept 2016): “John McEnroe would lose 6-0, 6-0, 6-0 to today’s top ten players,” he said. “Literally, he couldn’t even play this game.” We were watching Djokovic dismantle Monfils at the US Open. “The history of competition is the study of knowledge and skill.” McEnroe’s skills have long since become common knowledge. “For decades, knowledge and skill were highly integrated in our industry. Which was probably correct, because if you had a lot of knowledge, you could use it to make money.” When the industry was smaller, and you heard a little something about what a central bank was going to do, you’d place your bet and cash in. When you gleaned insight into an earnings announcement, or a merger, you killed it. “The trader’s skill in and of itself was built upon the collection of knowledge ahead of others.” The early outsized returns of our industry greats were built upon this simple formula. “The problem is that this skill – the ability to collect information faster than the other guy – no longer has value, it’s no longer a skill.” Tighter regulations and instantaneous information dissemination has made it knowledge. “Like Martina Navratilova establishing the importance of fitness; the skills and habits she developed are now baseline requirements to compete.” While it’s far easier to collect knowledge than acquire skill, it’s often difficult to delineate the two; in others, in ourselves. We’re so consumed by collecting knowledge that we spend too little time honing skill. “Is there a skill to trading for non-computers? For emotional creatures with blood flowing through their veins? Is it even possible to engage in deliberate practice to become a great trader anymore?” he asked, shrugging. Pausing, reflecting. “After analyzing my biggest wins, I’ve discovered they were all great longer-term investment ideas disguised as trades. This is my skill.”

 

Good luck out there,

Eric Peters

Chief Investment Officer

One River Asset Management

 

Week-in-Review: Mon: Israel base rate 3.75% as exp. Singapore GDP 6.0% (5.2%e), CPI 1.8% (2.1%e). Trump says negotiations with Iran are “proceeding nicely.” Chinese semiconductor stocks rose in Hong Kong on optimism over Huawei Technologies narrowing the technology gap with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. S&P 500 closed for Memorial Day. Tue: US conf board cons conf 93.1 (92.0e). Hungary CB rate decision unch 6.25% as exp. Australia CPI 4.2% (4.4%e). New Zealand RBNZ official cash rate unch 2.25% as exp. Taiwan IP 14.13% (19.25%e). Rocket, satellite stocks surge on SpaceX IPO buzz and NASA’s moon contracts. WHO says Congo’s Ebola epidemic is outpacing response. S&P +0.6%. Wed: US MBA mortgage applications -8.5%. Russia IP 1.9% (1.5%e). South Korea BOK base rate unch 2.50% as exp. Trump asserted that no one nation would control the Strait of Hormuz as renewed Gulf attacks threatened fragile ceasefire. Google engineer charged with insider trading on Polymarket amid growing concern about insider trading on prediction markets. S&P flat. Thu: US init jobless claims 215k (211k e), GDP ann QoQ 1.6% (2.0%e), durable goods orders 7.9% (4.0%e). Mexico unemp rate NSA 2.46% (2.69%e). South Africa SARB interest rate 7.00% as exp. Japan jobless rate 2.5% (2.7%e), IP 2.3% (0.7%e). South Korea IP 1.5% (2.5%e). US and Iran agree to 60-day truce renewal pending Trump signoff. Taiwan prosecutors suspect Nvidia chips were smuggled into China via Japan. S&P +0.6%. Fri: Canada GDP 0.4% (0.9%e). Brazil GDP 1.8% as exp. Taiwan GDP 14.55% (13.70%e). Trump administration to appeal a judge’s authority to order broad refunds of all tariffs ruled illegal by the US Supreme Court. Meta plans AI pendant as part of wearables roadmap. S&P +0.2%.

 

Weekly Close: S&P 500 +1.4% and VIX -1.38 at +15.32. Nikkei +4.7%, Shanghai -1.1%, Euro Stoxx +0.1%, Bovespa -1.4%, MSCI World +1.3%, MSCI Emerging +3.9%, Bitcoin -3.4%, and Ethereum -3.1%. USD rose +0.9% vs Indonesia, +0.3% vs Turkey, +0.1% vs Mexico, and +0.1% vs Yen. USD fell -1.4% vs South Africa, -1.4% vs Sweden, -1.2% vs Chile, -0.8% vs Australia, -0.7% vs India, -0.6% vs Russia, -0.5% vs Euro, -0.4% vs China, -0.2% vs Canada, -0.2% vs Sterling, and flat vs Brazil. Gold +0.8%, Silver -0.4%, Oil (WTI) -9.6%, Oil (Brent) -9.1%, NatGas (US) +8.9%, NatGas (EU) -5.8%, Power (EU) +4.5%, Copper +0.2%, Iron Ore -2.2%, Corn -3.6%. 10yr Inflation Breakevens (EU -14bps at 2.04%, US -1bp at 2.40%, JP -11bps at 2.19%, and UK -14bps at 3.33%). 2yr Notes -12bps at 4.01% and 10yr Notes -12bps at 4.44%.

 

May Monthly Close: S&P 500 +5.1% and VIX -1.57 at +15.32. Nikkei +11.9%, Shanghai -1.1%, Euro Stoxx +2.4%, Bovespa -7.2%, MSCI World +4.4%, MSCI Emerging +9.5%, Bitcoin -4.0%, and Ethereum -11.1%. USD rose +3.0% vs Indonesia, +1.7% vs Yen, +1.6% vs Brazil, +1.6% vs Canada, +1.5% vs Turkey, +1.1% vs Sterling, +0.6% vs Euro, +0.2% vs Australia, +0.1% vs India, and +0.1% vs Sweden. USD fell -5.5% vs Russia, -2.7% vs South Africa, -1.1% vs Chile, -0.9% vs China, and -0.6% vs Mexico. Gold -1.5%, Silver +2.5%, Oil (WTI) -11.9%, Oil (Brent) -11.9%, NatGas (US) +8.1%, NatGas (EU) -0.03%, Power (EU) +27.2%, Copper +6.8%, Iron Ore -2.6%, Corn -5.9%. 10yr Inflation Breakevens (EU -31bps at 2.04%, US -9bps at 2.40%, JP +22bps at 2.19%, and UK -22bps at 3.33%). 2yr Notes +13bps at 4.01% and 10yr Notes +7bps at 4.44%.

 

Yearly Close: S&P 500 +10.7% and VIX +0.37 at +15.32. Nikkei +31.8%, Shanghai +2.5%, Euro Stoxx +5.7%, Bovespa +7.9%, MSCI World +9.8%, MSCI Emerging +24.8%, Bitcoin -15.9%, and Ethereum -32.1%. USD rose +7.1% vs Indonesia, +6.7% vs Turkey, +5.7% vs India, +1.6% vs Yen, +0.7% vs Euro, +0.5% vs Canada, +0.4% vs Sweden, and +0.1% vs Sterling. USD fell -9.9% vs Russia, -8.0% vs Brazil, -7.1% vs Australia, -3.6% vs Mexico, -3.2% vs China, -2.0% vs South Africa, and -1.2% vs Chile. Gold +3.4%, Silver +5.7%, Oil (WTI) +53.2%, Oil (Brent) +51.4%, NatGas (US) -10.4%, NatGas (EU) +72.0%, Power (EU) +44.3%, Copper +10.3%, Iron Ore -1.7%, Corn -1.7%. 10yr Inflation Breakevens (EU +29bps at 2.04%, US +15bps at 2.40%, JP +42bps at 2.19%, and UK +39bps at 3.33%). 2yr Notes +53bps at 4.01% and 10yr Notes +27bps at 4.44%.

 

YTD Equity Index Returns: Korea +92.6% priced in US dollars (+101.1% priced in won), Taiwan +54.7% priced in US dollars (+54.4% priced in Taiwan dollars), Israel +37.4% priced in US dollars (+20.9% in shekels), Norway +32.6% in dollars (+21.6% in krone), Hungary +31.4% (+21.2%), Japan +29.4% (+31.8%), Thailand +20.4% (+24.5%), Russell 2000 +17.6%, Brazil +17.1% (+7.9%), NASDAQ +16.1%, Poland +15.8% (+16.9%), Austria +14.6% (+15.4%), Finland +13.6% (+14.4%), Turkey +13.5% (+21.3%), Portugal +12.2% (+12.8%), Greece +11.3% (+11.9%), Mexico +10.8% (+6.7%), S&P 500 +10.7%, Italy +10.5% (+11.3%), MSCI World +9.8% priced in US dollars, Belgium +9.3% (+9.9%), Singapore +9.3% (+8.4%), Canada +9% (+9.6%), Sweden +8.6% (+8.8%), Netherlands +8.2% (+8.8%), Australia +8% (+0.2%), Colombia +7.8% (+5.3%), Argentina +6.9% (+3.8%), China +5.9% (+2.5%), Spain +5.5% (+6.1%), Saudi Arabia +5% (+5.1%), UK +4.9% (+4.8%), Vietnam +4.3% (+4.4%), Chile +4.1% (+2.9%), Euro Stoxx 50 +3.9% (+4.5%), Switzerland +3.4% (+2.1%), Malaysia +2.5% (+0.2%), Germany +1.8% (+2.5%), New Zealand +1.7% (-2.2%), South Africa +1.1% (-1.1%), Ireland +0.3% (+0.8%), France -0.1% (+0.4%), HK -2.4% (-1.7%), UAE -2.9% (-2.9%), Denmark -4.7% (-3.9%), Czech Republic -6.1% (-5.1%), Philippines -8.8% (-4.7%), India -14.6% (-9.9%), Indonesia -33.5% (-29.1%).

 

Disclaimer: All characters and events contained herein are entirely fictional. Even those things that appear based on real people and actual events are products of the author’s imagination. Any similarity is merely coincidental. The numbers are unreliable. The statistics too. Consequently, this message does not contain any investment recommendation, advice, or solicitation of any sort for any product, fund or service. The views expressed are strictly those of the author, even if often times they are not actually views held by the author, or directly contradict those views genuinely held by the author. And the views may certainly differ from those of any firm or person that the author may advise, converse with, or otherwise be associated with. Lastly, any inappropriate language, innuendo or dark humor contained herein is not specifically intended to offend the reader. And besides, nothing could possibly be more offensive than the real-life actions of the inept policy makers, corrupt elected leaders and short, paranoid dictators who infest our little planet. Yet we suffer their indignities every day. Oh yeah, past performance is not indicative of future returns.

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