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wknd
notes

Wknd Notes
White Papers
wknd notes: The Wild Rise of USD Stablecoin

wknd notes: Wildly Asymmetric Threats Are Emerging

wknd notes: Wildly Asymmetric Threats Are Emerging
July 12, 2025
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wknd notes: What Happened? Was That A Joke?

wknd notes: What Happened? Was That A Joke?
July 06, 2025
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wknd notes: Seeking Safe Havens

wknd notes: Seeking Safe Havens
June 22, 2025
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wknd notes: War is the continuation of politics by other means

wknd notes: War is the continuation of politics by other means
June 15, 2025
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wknd
notes

Each Sunday morning for over a decade, One River’s CIO, Eric Peters, has published “Wknd Notes.” It is an unorthodox take on markets, politics, and policy that’s widely read across our industry and within global policy/political circles. Eric has written for as long as he has traded and the discipline is part of his investment process. Drawing on wide-ranging, multi-disciplinary research, historical study, and discussions with interesting characters throughout the world, Eric collects those things he finds most thought-provoking each week and distills them into a concise letter. At times the ideas and views are consistent with his own, but just as often, they challenge his positions and it is this openness to opposing views that helps him maintain a flexible mind in the search for emerging opportunities and risks. His writing is a reflection of how he thinks, and as such it is as focused on identifying the right questions to ask as it is on seeking answers. The publication of this work is Eric’s way of exchanging ideas/information and developing dialogue with a network grown over his thirty-one-year career.

wknd notes: The Wild Rise of USD Stablecoin

June 28, 2025

“He tried to cut spending through peace,” barked Biggie Too. “But the war in Ukraine is raging on. And now he got this new taste for B2s and bunker busters,” bellowed Biggie, Chief Global Strategist for one of Wall Street’s too-big-to-fail affairs. “And he tried to DOGE discretionary spending, but that was a bust too.” Indeed. “So, looks like he’s going to go for broke and pump this economy into a boom to grow our way out of debt,” he said. “He’s saying, ‘gimme everything now,’ and if there’s inflation next year, the Fed can always hike.” And Biggie broke into one of his devious little smiles, a lover of booms, bubbles, busts. “If we couldn’t get the 30yr yield to hold above 5% with all this crap going on, then why can’t the stock market trade at 30x earnings?”

 

Overall: “Daddy has to sometimes use strong language to get them to stop,” said Mark Rutte, Secretary General of NATO, referencing Trump’s use of profanity to admonish both Israel and Iran. No sooner had the US bombed Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, then Trump negotiated a truce, an end to what the world prays will be a 12-day war. Talks are planned for some sort of deal with the Ayatollah. A business deal. You see, Trump couldn’t force America’s oil execs to drill baby drill, but if he can end Iran’s enrichment program and back off, ever so slightly, from the threat of regime change, we’ll see a wave of Persian crude wash across Gulf. “I hear nations asking, ‘Hey Mark, will the US remain with us?’ It struck me as similar to a young child asking their father, ‘Hey, are you still going to stay with us?,” said Rutte. NATO nations agreed to spend 5% of GDP on defense, folding to pressure from the US president. US and European defense companies celebrated. Cold wars are great for business (innovation too). EU GDP is 10x that of Russia, while Europe’s population is 3x Russia’s. So, you can bet that with the EU finally committing real money, a settlement between Russia and Ukraine has shifted forward. Which means a flood of Russian energy to the global market is on the horizon. Great for economic growth, for profit margins, prosperity. And Trump announced that we’ve got a framework for a trade deal with China. Nine other nations too. And Europe agreed to not tax America’s tech companies. The US will soon pass One Big Beautiful Bill. And with midterm elections no longer so far away, the risks of something like Liberation Day tariffs are receding. Because Trump cannot afford to lose them, so it’s full speed ahead for the economy, for deal making, for business. Which is what America is, a business.

 

Week-in-Review: Mon: US PMI mfg 52.0 (51.0e) / serv 53.1 (53.0e) / comp 52.8 (52.2e). Stocks rose as oil prices fell following Iran’s retaliatory strike on US air base in Qatar. Trump announced ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran. S&P +1.0%. Tue: Canada CPI 1.7% as exp. US cons conf 93.0 (99.8e). Hungary Rate decision 6.5% as exp. Shaky Iran-Israel ceasefire appeared to hold. Powell reiterated there is no rush to lower rates, though “many paths are possible”. The EU plans to impose retaliatory tariffs on US imports if Trump imposes a baseline tariff on the bloc. S&P +1.1%. Wed: US new home sales 623k (693k e). Mamdani wins the Democratic primary for NYC mayor. The Fed released a plan to roll back the enhanced supplementary leverage ratio, which would reduce capital requirements for big banks. Trump threatens double tariffs on Spain following refusal to agree to new defense spending targets adopted by NATO. Trump announces meeting with Iran next week and that the conflict is “over”. S&P flat. Thu: US GDP QoQ -0.5% (-0.2%e), US Jobless claims 236k (243k e). Mexico overnight rate 8.0% as exp. Trump considers fast tracking a replacement for the next Federal Reserve chief. US China trade understanding finalized, with more deals imminent ahead of July 9 deadline. S&P +0.8%. Fri: US Personal income -0.4% (0.3%e) / spending -0.1% (0.1%e), Core PCE MoM 0.2% (0.1% e). Mexico unemp rate 2.75% (2.59%e). France CPI 0.9% (0.8%e). S&P surpassed its Feb all-time high. Iran dismissed Trump’s claim of nuclear talks scheduled next week. Trump ended trade discussions with Canada, while China further confirmed details of trade agreement. S&P +0.5%.

 

Weekly Close: S&P 500 +3.4% and VIX -4.30 at +16.32. Nikkei +4.6%, Shanghai +1.9%, Euro Stoxx +1.3%, Bovespa -0.2%, MSCI World +3.3%, MSCI Emerging +3.3%, Bitcoin +1.4%, and Ethereum -3.7%. USD rose +0.6% vs Turkey, and +0.2% vs Russia. USD fell -1.9% vs Sterling, -1.9% vs Sweden, -1.8% vs Mexico, -1.7% vs Euro, -1.3% vs India, -1.2% vs Australia, -1.1% vs Indonesia, -1.0% vs Yen, -1.0% vs South Africa, -0.5% vs Brazil, -0.3% vs Canada, -0.1% vs Chile, and -0.1% vs China. Gold -2.9%, Silver +0.1%, Oil -11.3%, Copper +4.9%, Iron Ore +0.1%, Corn -3.3%. 10yr Inflation Breakevens (EU -2bps at 1.75%, US -4bps at 2.30%, JP +3bps at 1.52%, and UK -11bps at 3.06%). 2yr Notes -16bps at 3.75% and 10yr Notes -10bps at 4.28%.

 

2025 Year-to-Date Equity Index Returns: Poland +48.2% priced in US dollars (+30.3% priced in zloty), Greece +44.7% priced in US dollars (+27.7% in euros), Hungary +43.8% in dollars (+23.5% in forint), Czech Republic +39.2% (+21.3%), Korea +37.8% (+27.4%), Spain +36.5% (+20.5%), Germany +36.1% (+20.7%), Austria +36% (+20.6%), Portugal +34.2% (+18.5%), Ireland +32.3% (+16.8%), Israel +31.1% (+21.7%), Italy +31.1% (+16.3%), Colombia +30.9% (+20.9%), Norway +29.6% (+14.7%), Chile +29.5% (+22.4%), Brazil +28.6% (+13.8%), Mexico +28.3% (+15.9%), Finland +25.9% (+11.6%), South Africa +24.1% (+17%), Euro Stoxx 50 +23.2% (+8.8%), HK +19.8% (+21.1%), Belgium +19.8% (+5.7%), Netherlands +18.6% (+4.7%), France +18% (+4.2%), UK +17.9% (+7.7%), Sweden +17.4% (+0.9%), Switzerland +16.9% (+3.3%), Canada +13.6% (+7.9%), Singapore +12.2% (+4.7%), Taiwan +10.6% (-2%), Australia +10.3% (+4.4%), Japan +9.3% (+0.6%), India +8.6% (+8.4%), MSCI World +8.1% in US dollars, Vietnam +5.7% (+8.3%), NASDAQ +5%, UAE +5% (+5%), S&P 500 +5%, New Zealand +4% (-4%), China +4% (+2.2%), Philippines +0.6% (-1.8%), Malaysia -1.6% (-7%), Indonesia -2.5% (-2.6%), Russell -2.6%, Denmark -6.5% (-17.1%), Saudi Arabia -7.9% (-8%), Turkey -15.2% (-4.3%), Thailand -18.9% (-22.7%), Argentina -30% (-19.4%).

 

Growth: “Policymakers are growing the nation into a mega-sized consumer powerhouse on top of its solid foundation as a manufacturing power,” said China’s Premier Li at the WEF. “This will bring vast markets to enterprises from all countries.” Pressure from the US is working its way through the global economy, pushing China, Europe, and well, basically every nation, to pursue more aggressive pro-growth policies. “China is positioned to cross cycles, move forward steadily, and continue to inject more stability and certainty into the world economy.”

 

Growth II: “I’m really happy that, at least so far, none of our best people have decided to take them up on that,” said Sam Altman, referencing the $100mm signing bonuses that Zuckerberg has allegedly offered top talent at OpenAI. Meta plans to spend between $64-$72bln this year on AI initiatives. Its Llama 4 LLM has not performed as well as expected and release of its flagship “Behemoth” model has been delayed. Nowhere in the world would this sort of capital be deployed in a race of any sort, let alone one with so many risks, unknowns. Only in America.

 

Growth III: “For us, as Tether is the creator of the stablecoin industry in 2014, we are very honored that the most powerful country in the world is taking good care of a technology or legislating on a technology that we created,” said Paolo Ardoino, founder/CEO of Tether, the world’s largest US dollar stablecoin. “I think that the Genius Act is a step in the right direction.” Tether made $13.7bln in profit last year, and has 450mm global customers, expanding rapidly. This podcast provides a glimpse into Paolo’s vision for the future of money [here].

 

Growth IV: It’s not hard to imagine a world where AI agents engage in economic activity at a scale and speed hard for humans to fathom. In that world, it seems absurd to think the existing banking system will open and close billions of accounts and process trillions of payments between them. Crypto was built to do these things cheaply, instantly, and securely in an environment where economic actors can exchange value without needing to trust one another or without needing a central authority. These AI agents are likely to use dollar stablecoin to transact.

 

Growth V: Trump is returning the world to its historical state, one governed by the law of the jungle. It’s a world where those nations that can, will invest massively to build out critical infrastructure, secure, redundant. NATO’s pledge to spend 5% of GDP annually is an early example. Infrastructure investing in this old world will boom. Monetary infrastructure will be rebuilt as well. The rise in gold is an early indicator that this process is underway. And crypto infrastructure, built to operate in a trustless environment without a central authority, is the future.

 

Anecdote: London, England. Five of us on stage, asset managers. Four years ago, there were 200 people in the audience. Last year 550. And now, 850. No blue hair. Still plenty of billionaires. Even the guys in sneakers wore suits. About every other attendee had their laptops open all day, taking notes, analysts. Brevan, Citadel, Millenium, Moore, Tudor, the big quant shops, and all the major allocators. Crypto is growing up. A few people talked about Stablecoin Summer, and it stuck. The Circle IPO has been one of those rare market moments that force even the most skeptical to open their eyes, their minds. This issuer of US dollar stablecoin went public on June 5th at $31/share and closed Friday at $180/share ($43bln market cap). Most people still barely know what a dollar stablecoin is, and even fewer know how they work. Some people have heard that dollar stablecoin adoption will extend the greenback’s reign as the global reserve currency for decades to come. It will. But not many understand why. And forward-thinking strategists forecast that dollar stablecoins will soon become the world’s leading buyers of treasury bills, replacing nations like China and Japan as the largest lenders to the US government. Most people scoff at that notion. They’re wrong. The world is changing fast. And it is generally true that investors who tune into the wisdom of markets succeed, often spectacularly, while the others trail, fail. Markets are starting to tell us that something important is unfolding in crypto infrastructure, lifting the price of companies that help incumbent financial firms to transition to blockchain-based rails. The process has clearly begun, making financial transactions faster, cheaper, more secure, and transparent. It’ll take the better part of a decade to complete, at which point today’s skeptics will be able to explain in great detail how it all works, and why this mega macro-trend became rather obvious, just after the Circle IPO.

 

Good luck out there,

Eric Peters

Chief Investment Officer

One River Asset Management

 

Disclaimer: All characters and events contained herein are entirely fictional. Even those things that appear based on real people and actual events are products of the author’s imagination. Any similarity is merely coincidental. The numbers are unreliable. The statistics too. Consequently, this message does not contain any investment recommendation, advice, or solicitation of any sort for any product, fund or service. The views expressed are strictly those of the author, even if often times they are not actually views held by the author, or directly contradict those views genuinely held by the author. And the views may certainly differ from those of any firm or person that the author may advise, converse with, or otherwise be associated with. Lastly, any inappropriate language, innuendo or dark humor contained herein is not specifically intended to offend the reader. And besides, nothing could possibly be more offensive than the real-life actions of the inept policy makers, corrupt elected leaders and short, paranoid dictators who infest our little planet. Yet we suffer their indignities every day. Oh yeah, past performance is not indicative of future returns.

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