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wknd
notes

Wknd Notes
White Papers
wknd notes: When Will The Next Crash Come?

wknd notes: Ridicule, Resiliency, and 4th Children

wknd notes: Ridicule, Resiliency, and 4th Children
November 29, 2025
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wknd notes: Any Bodies Floating To The Surface?

wknd notes: Any Bodies Floating To The Surface?
November 22, 2025
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wknd notes: Four legs good, two legs bad

wknd notes: Four legs good, two legs bad
November 09, 2025
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wknd notes: The Ultimate Enigma

wknd notes: The Ultimate Enigma
November 01, 2025
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wknd
notes

Each Sunday morning for over a decade, One River’s CIO, Eric Peters, has published “Wknd Notes.” It is an unorthodox take on markets, politics, and policy that’s widely read across our industry and within global policy/political circles. Eric has written for as long as he has traded and the discipline is part of his investment process. Drawing on wide-ranging, multi-disciplinary research, historical study, and discussions with interesting characters throughout the world, Eric collects those things he finds most thought-provoking each week and distills them into a concise letter. At times the ideas and views are consistent with his own, but just as often, they challenge his positions and it is this openness to opposing views that helps him maintain a flexible mind in the search for emerging opportunities and risks. His writing is a reflection of how he thinks, and as such it is as focused on identifying the right questions to ask as it is on seeking answers. The publication of this work is Eric’s way of exchanging ideas/information and developing dialogue with a network grown over his thirty-one-year career.

wknd notes: When Will The Next Crash Come?

November 15, 2025

“Everything on the right is the Smithsonian,” said my Uber driver, a Nigerian, proud to show me around DC on the way to Union Station, a fascinating day of meetings. “To the left are all government buildings. Beautiful buildings. But no one is back yet, which is why it is so empty on the streets,” he continued, shrugging. “They say on the radio they have opened the government again, but it must take some time to restart a government, like starting an old engine,” he said, skeptical, but grateful, happy, hustling.

 

Overall: “This package demonstrates that we can govern without surrendering to big spending or letting Democrats dictate priorities,” wrote the House Freedom Caucus in some talking points released to the media. “We successfully stiff-armed a massive omnibus spending bill; locked in disciplined, flat spending levels; preserved President Trump’s policy priorities… and kept our leverage for the next round in January.” People can say whatever they want, but I’m pretty sure our politicians closed the US government for a record 42 days and changed absolutely nothing. That’s quite an accomplishment. Sublime ineptitude. Congressional approval ratings supposedly declined 11pts to 15% during the period. Remarkable. If a trader knew that 85% of his decisions were losers, he’d become the richest man on earth by simply doing the exact opposite of his instinct. I’m guessing Pelosi made good money trading the chop, but the broad equity market ended the shutdown period roughly a percent higher than where it started. Extrapolating the recent pace of deficit spending, the Federal government accumulated another $600bln of debt during the shutdown, adding more leverage to the system, sustaining the economy, supporting asset values. But even so, 10yr treasury yields are unchanged from where they were before the shutdown. Crypto prices got smoked, with bitcoin down roughly 16% for no particularly good reason, even as gold rose 5%. Liquidity trades often need momentum to sustain them, and the hot money has been chasing AI and gold. Beijing added roughly 62 gigawatts of electrical generation capacity to China’s grid while Washington remained closed. That’s roughly the generation capacity of the entire UK, once the world’s greatest power. 80% of China’s new generation capacity is renewables, which means that once its built, it requires no coal, gas, or oil imports to power data centers. That’s quite a competitive advantage in this existential race toward AGI. But at least we have our democracy, which we’ve been told is the worst system except for all the others.

 

For Week-in-Review and Weekly & Year-to-Date market data, scroll to the bottom.

 

Alpha: “First time in my career where it makes sense to bet on the right tail,” said Alpha. “Q1 will be interesting. We’ll revise up global growth. And lift US nominal GDP growth to 5%, maybe higher,” he said, moving macro markets at one of those multi-manager money machines. “The fiscal impulse will be a positive. The consumer has been sluggish and weakened this year. Market is over-extrapolating that. Early filers will get big tax rebates. It’ll be a meaningful boost. So aggregate demand will go up. Into that trade, risk assets will do well, at least for a while.”

 

Alpha II: “When the consumer looks better and starts really spending, the market will price out rate cuts,” explained Alpha. “You should set rates at where nominal growth is. Going into next year, if we have 5% nominal growth, the Fed will have to consider higher rates not lower. They won’t be proactive, of course, they’ll be reactive,” he said. “If you have aggregate demand in the economy running above aggregate supply, it doesn’t matter who is leading the Fed, they won’t be cutting, they’ll be hiking. The trade is to be short the front end for a 40-50bps sell off.”

 

Alpha III: “The cycles move at varying speed. Any supply side boost you get from this AI investment will come in years,” said Alpha. “The supply side operates on a 10yr horizon. Demand is instantaneous. And supply across the economy has declined in the near term.” Labor market and immigration policies. “Inflation is no longer anchored in terms of behavior and expectations,” said Alpha. “In 2022, no one had seen inflation in 40yrs. But if inflation picks up early next year, we’re going to see that it is reflexive and expectations driven.”

 

Biggie Too: “Biggie told you coming into 2025, the risk and fear was 6% treasury yields,” said Biggie Too, happy to kick off the convo in the 3rd person. “Getting to 4% has been a very big support for markets this year,” barked Biggie, Global Chief Strategist for one of Wall Street’s too-big-to-fail affairs. “Now people think 2027 will be a disaster. Chickens coming home to roost - that sort of talk. But Biggie doesn’t care about 27, he got money to make in 26.” And of course, Biggie’s right. We all do. In fact, we still have 25 to finish, and a lifetime can happen in 6 weeks.

 

Biggie Too II: “No one needs a year-end rally in 25,” bellowed Biggie. “Been a great year, people are cleaning up their books.” Pre-positioning for 26. “People think a Q1 boom. Then May 15th is the first day of the new Fed Chair.” Some guy named Kevin. “He’ll get tested. They always do. So, sell in May and go away,” said Biggie. “Nov 3rd is the midterm election. If he loses, its bombs away.” Impeachment. Lawfare. “And if Biggie knows one thing for sure – and he does – it’s that he’s going to do everything imaginable to make sure he wins the midterms.”

 

Anecdote: Headed to DC to meet all sorts of folks, ask some questions. Like what if running the economy hot, boosting productivity through an aggressive AI buildout, pushing oil prices lower, sustaining moderate inflation, and subduing interest rates through financial repression doesn’t work out as planned? What’s the fallback at that point? And how do you make the economy boom with the existing immigration policies? Questions like, whether the right way to think about AI in the US is an industrial buildout that looks kind of like the late 1990s internet? Or as an existential race against China that resembles the nuclear arms competition with the USSR? And if it’s the latter, is the AI buildout and all its major players already too-big-to-fail? Are we engaged in an unprecedented public/private partnership effort with an unlimited budget and no practical constraint but for the labor and materials required to scale the infrastructure to win the AI race? Given the recent electoral losses in Virginia, NJ and the Mamdani win, the midterms next year are a rising risk, so what levers are left to pull to ensure a Republican win? Are we really going to see $2,000 stimmie checks again? And with the Fed’s gold reserve surging in value, will the new Chairman revalue it higher from $42/ounce to current prices? How much of that $1 trillion capital gain might Treasury use to build the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve? And what about selling shares in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac? Might some of those proceeds be used to buy bitcoin? With the big personal tax rebates coming in Q1, we should see a real pickup in consumer spending, CAPEX will be extremely strong, and if that leads to inflation heating up even as the administration pushes for rate cuts, what is the plan to suppress consumer prices headed into midterms? What if everything the administration is doing into the midterms sparks an equity market blow off top? How do you make sure the boom you’re trying to engineer doesn’t manifest too early, and turns into a bust at just the wrong time? When do you think the next real market crash comes? And will the fiscal/monetary response be as big or bigger than Covid?

 

Good luck out there,

Eric Peters

Chief Investment Officer

One River Asset Management

 

Week-in-Review: Mon: Japan leading index CI 108.0 (107.9e). Senate passed temporary funding measure to end the US government shutdown, now awaiting House approval. Trump said the US will reduce India’s tariff rate after it cut Russian oil purchases. S&P +1.5%. Tue: UK unemp rate 5.0% (4.9%e). Hungary CPI 4.3% (4.5%e). Softbank sold Nvidia stake for $5.83b to help bankroll other AI investments. The FAA is requiring US airlines to scale back operations by 6% Tuesday and 10% by Friday. S&P +0.2%. Wed: Germany CPI 2.3% as exp. India CPI 0.25% (0.40%e). Trump signs legislation to end record 43-day government shutdown with interim spending package that funds most of the US government’s programs through Jan 30. Anthropic commits $50b to build AI data centers in US. S&P +0.1%. Thu: UK GDP 1.3% (1.4%e), IP -2.5% (-1.3%e), mfg prod -2.2% (-1.7%e). China IP 4.9% (5.5%e). Hawkish language from US Fed saw markets sell off, particularly in tech stocks and crypto. Xi Jinping, like Trump, will skip the G-20 summit in South Africa this month. Kevin Hassett announces that the October jobs report will be released without a reading on unemployment rate. S&P -1.7%. Fri: Eurozone GDP 1.4% (1.3%e). France CPI 0.9% (1.0%e). Russia GDP 0.6% (0.7%e). US and Switzerland near a finalized trade agreement to lower tariffs on Swiss goods to 15%. Trump Administration prepares for broad exemptions to certain tariffs in an effort to ease elevated food prices. S&P -0.1%.

 

Weekly Close: S&P 500 +0.1% and VIX +0.75 at +19.83. Nikkei +0.2%, Shanghai -0.2%, Euro Stoxx +1.8%, Bovespa +2.4%, MSCI World +0.4%, MSCI Emerging +0.3%, Bitcoin -8.2%, and Ethereum -8.2%. USD rose +0.7% vs Yen, +0.1% vs Turkey, +0.1% vs Indonesia, and +0.1% vs India. USD fell -2.0% vs Chile, -1.2% vs South Africa, -0.8% vs Sweden, -0.8% vs Mexico, -0.7% vs Australia, -0.7% vs Brazil, -0.5% vs Euro, -0.3% vs China, -0.1% vs Canada, -0.1% vs Russia, and -0.1% vs Sterling. Gold +2.1%, Silver +5.3%, Oil +0.6%, Copper +2.1%, Iron Ore +0.5%, Corn +0.5%. 10yr inflation Breakevens (EU +1bp at 1.78%, US +1bp at 2.30%, JP -1bp at 1.55%, and UK +10bps at 3.00%). 2yr Notes +4bps at 3.61% and 10yr Notes +5bps at 4.15%.

 

2025 Year-to-Date Equity Index Returns: Colombia +76.1% priced in US dollars (+50.1% priced in pesos), Korea +69.3% priced in US dollars (+67.2% priced in won), Czech Republic +64% in dollars (+40.9% in forint), Israel +62.7% (+43.9%), Hungary +61.8% (+35.3%), Poland +58.7% (+40.4%), Spain +58.2% (+41%), Greece +57.3% (+40.1%), Brazil +53.4% (+31.1%), South Africa +53% (+38.7%), Chile +52.9% (+43.1%), Austria +48% (+32.5%), Portugal +47% (+31%), Italy +43.8% (+28.7%), Mexico +43.3% (+25.9%), Ireland +42.2% (+26.7%), Finland +39.8% (+25.1%), Germany +34% (+19.9%), Belgium +32.5% (+18.1%), HK +32.4% (+32.5%), Euro Stoxx 50 +30.5% (+16.3%), Norway +30% (+15.3%), Sweden +29.4% (+11%), Japan +28.3% (+26.3%), Singapore +26.3% (+20%), Canada +25.8% (+22.6%), Taiwan +25.2% (+18.9%), Vietnam +24.9% (+29.1%), UK +24.7% (+18.7%), France +24.2% (+10.7%), Switzerland +24.1% (+8.9%), China +22.4% (+19.1%), Netherlands +21.6% (+8.3%), NASDAQ +18.6%, MSCI World +17.1% in dollars, S&P 500 +14.5%, Indonesia +14.4% (+18.2%), Australia +11.9% (+5.8%), Malaysia +7.2% (-1%), Russell +7.1%, India +5.7% (+9.6%), UAE +5.3% (+5.3%), New Zealand +4.4% (+2.7%), Thailand -4.4% (-9.4%), Saudi Arabia -7% (-7.1%), Turkey -10.2% (+7.5%), Argentina -13.2% (+18.1%), Philippines -16.1% (-14.5%), Denmark -19% (-27.5%).

 

Disclaimer: All characters and events contained herein are entirely fictional. Even those things that appear based on real people and actual events are products of the author’s imagination. Any similarity is merely coincidental. The numbers are unreliable. The statistics too. Consequently, this message does not contain any investment recommendation, advice, or solicitation of any sort for any product, fund or service. The views expressed are strictly those of the author, even if often times they are not actually views held by the author, or directly contradict those views genuinely held by the author. And the views may certainly differ from those of any firm or person that the author may advise, converse with, or otherwise be associated with. Lastly, any inappropriate language, innuendo or dark humor contained herein is not specifically intended to offend the reader. And besides, nothing could possibly be more offensive than the real-life actions of the inept policy makers, corrupt elected leaders and short, paranoid dictators who infest our little planet. Yet we suffer their indignities every day. Oh yeah, past performance is not indicative of future returns.

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