wknd
notes


                                                  wknd notes: Don't Over Think Things

wknd notes: Equilibrium is an Illusion

wknd notes: Equilibrium is an Illusion
November 20, 2022
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WKND NOTES: CREATIVE DESTRUCTION. INNOVATION.

WKND NOTES: CREATIVE DESTRUCTION. INNOVATION.
November 14, 2022
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wknd
notes

Each Sunday morning for over a decade, One River’s CIO, Eric Peters, has published “Wknd Notes.” It is an unorthodox take on markets, politics, and policy that’s widely read across our industry and within global policy/political circles. Eric has written for as long as he has traded and the discipline is part of his investment process. Drawing on wide-ranging, multi-disciplinary research, historical study, and discussions with interesting characters throughout the world, Eric collects those things he finds most thought-provoking each week and distills them into a concise letter. At times the ideas and views are consistent with his own, but just as often, they challenge his positions and it is this openness to opposing views that helps him maintain a flexible mind in the search for emerging opportunities and risks. His writing is a reflection of how he thinks, and as such it is as focused on identifying the right questions to ask as it is on seeking answers. The publication of this work is Eric’s way of exchanging ideas/information and developing dialogue with a network grown over his thirty-one-year career.

wknd note: wknd notes: Don't Over Think Things

Dusted off a Thanksgiving anecdote from 2015 about not overthinking things (see below). See you next Sunday with full weekend notes. E

 

Week-in-Review (expressed in YoY terms): Mon: Saudi’s deny earlier report of OPEC+ 500k bpd output hike, Beijing records 3 covid deaths over the wknd (first in over 6m) / Shijiazhuang (11m people) increases covid restrictions, Israel CB hikes 50bp (75bp exp), PBOC left 1y & 5y LPR unch as exp, Fed’s Mester happy to downshift to 50bp, Fed’s Daly wants rates at 5% plus, ECB’s Centeno favors downshift to 50bp, ECB’s Holzmann leans toward 75bp hike, heavy shelling of Ukrainian nuclear power plant over the weekend, Disney brings back Bob Iger as CEO (shares +10%), US prosecutors opened probe into FTX months before collapse, Thailand 3Q GDP 4.5% as exp, H. Kong CPI 1.8% (2.1%e), Germany PPI 34.5% (42.1%e), US Chicago Fed activity -0.05 (0.00e), S&P -0.4%; Tue: Beijing requires negative PCR test to enter public spaces, Gazprom threatens to reduce gas flows via Ukraine, ECB’s Nagel unsure on scale of Dec hike / ECB’s Simkus open to 50 or 75bp, RBA’s Lowe reiterates more hikes to come but open to 0-50bp increments, US Supreme court clears house panel to get Trump’s tax return, UK Public Sector net borrowing (ex-banks) 13.5b (21.5b exp), France ret sales -5.4% (-1.7%p), Mexico ret sales 3.3% (3.9%e), Canada ret sales -0.7% MoM (-0.6%e), EU cons conf -23.9 (-26e), US Richmond Fed -9 (-8e), S&P +1.4%; Wed: RBNZ hikes 75 as exp / delivers hawkish tone, FOMC mins show most think a slower pace will be appropriate soon though a higher terminal rate likely, China daily case count rises above 28k – triggering fresh mobility restrictions, China State Council urges easier policy (including RRR cuts), Russian missile strikes force more Kyiv blackouts, Singapore 3Q final GDP 4.1% (4.3%e) / CPI 6.7% (7%e) / Core CPI 5.1% (5.3%e), S. Africa CPI 7.6% (7.4%e)/ Core CPI 5% (4.8%e), Taiwan IP -3.56% (-2.755e), EU PMI mfg 47.3 (46e) / serv 46.4 (46.2e) / comp 47.8 (47e), US durable goods 1% (0.4%e), US init jobless claims 240k (225k exp), US PMI mfg 47.6 (50e) / serv 46.1 (48e) / comp 46.3 (48e), US UofM 56.8 (55e) / 1y infl exp 4.9% (5.1%e) / 5-10y infl exp 3% as exp, US new home sales 632k (570k exp), Russia IP -2.6% (-3.9%e), S&P +0.6%; Thur: Thanksgiving holiday in US = thin market liquidity, China covid cases hit a record, Riksbank hikes 75bps as expected but terminal rate projection lower than exp, S. Korea CB hikes 25bp as exp / dovish tone, Turkey CB cuts 150bp as exp, ECB’s Schnabel says limited room to downshift / untargeted fiscal easing challenges inflation slowdown, BoE’s Ramsden says fiscal tightening won’t influence BoE policy much near-term, Binanace CEO CZ rumored to be amassing $1b to buy distressed but promising crypto assets, Norway unemp 3.4% (3.2%p), France mfg conf 101 (102e), Germany IFO 86.3 (85e), Brazil IPCA 6.17% (6.2%e), S&P closed; Fri: China covid case counts above 30k for first time ever, PBOC cut RRR by 25bp, ECB hits BNP and DB with leveraged loan capital charges, Tokyo CPI 3.8% (3.6%e) / Core CPI 2.5% (2.3%e), Japan PPI serv 1.8% (2.1%e), Singapore IP -0.8% (-1.6%e), Germany cons conf -40.2 (-39.6e), Germany final 3Q GDP 1.3% (1.2%e), France cons conf 83 as exp, Italy cons conf 98.1 (91e), Mexico 3Q final GDP 4.3% (4.1%e), S&P unch; Sat: Chevron cleared by US to resume some Venezuela oil operations.

 

Weekly Close: S&P 500 +1.5% and VIX -2.62 at +20.50. Nikkei +1.4%, Shanghai +0.1%, Euro Stoxx +1.7%, Bovespa +0.2%, MSCI World +1.8%, and MSCI Emerging +0.3%. USD rose +1.8% vs Ethereum, +0.9% vs Bitcoin, +0.6% vs China, +0.4% vs Brazil, +0.1% vs Turkey, and flat vs Russia. USD fell -2.1% vs Sweden, -2.0% vs Chile, -1.7% vs Sterling, -1.1% vs Australia, -0.9% vs Yen, -0.9% vs South Africa, -0.8% vs Euro, -0.6% vs Mexico, -0.1% vs Indonesia, flat vs Canada, and flat vs India. Gold +0.2%, Silver +2.3%, Oil -4.6%, Copper -0.5%, Iron Ore -1.7%, Corn +0.2%. 5y5y inflation swaps (EU +2bps at 2.31%, US +8bps at 2.58%, JP flat at 0.90%, and UK -11bps at 3.48%). 2yr Notes -8bps at 4.46% and 10yr Notes -15bps at 3.68%.

 

YTD Equity Indexes (high-to-low): Turkey +86.3% priced in US dollars (+162.4% priced in lira), UAE +24% priced in US dollars (+24% priced in dirham), Argentina +21.5% in dollars (+95.8% in pesos), Chile +12.8% in dollars (+21.8% in pesos), Brazil +7.5% (+4.1%), Venezuela +7.3% (+124.9%), Mexico +2.6% (-3.1%), Singapore +1.7% (+3.9%), Portugal -1.6% (+7.7%), Indonesia -2.6% (+7.2%), India -2.7% (+6.7%), Saudi Arabia -3.1% (-3%), Greece -6.1% (+2.7%), Norway -6.3% (+5%), South Africa -7.3% (-0.4%), Thailand -8.9% (-2.2%), Canada -9.2% (-3.9%), UK -9.4% (+1.4%), Australia -9.6% (-2.5%), Spain -11.2% (-3.4%), Malaysia -12% (-5.2%), Denmark -13.5% (-6%), France -14.2% (-6.2%), S&P 500 -15.5%, Israel -15.6% (-7.4%), Euro Stoxx 50 -15.8% (-7.8%), Germany -15.8% (-8.5%), Switzerland -16.1% (-13.3%), MSCI World -16.3% priced in US dollars, Philippines -16.5% (-7.2%), Russell -16.8%, Italy -16.9% (-9.6%), Netherlands -17.2% (-9.4%), Czech Republic -18.2% (-12.8%), Japan -18.7% (-1.8%), New Zealand -20.5% (-12.7%), Ireland -20.9% (-13.4%), Finland -21% (-14.1%), Belgium -21.4% (-14%), Austria -22.2% (-15.4%), Sweden -23.9% (-12.5%), China -24.4% (-14.8%), HK -25.1% (-24.9%), Hungary -25.2% (-9.9%), Colombia -25.4% (-10.9%), Poland -26.9% (-18.8%), Korea -27% (-18.1%), Taiwan -27.2% (-18.9%), NASDAQ -28.2%, Russia -28.5% (-42%).

 

Anecdote (Dec 2015): “Cliff jumping,” answered Jackson, without hesitation, taking charge. Olivia, Teddy, and Charlie cheered. Filling the air with the magic of mischief. I’d asked for ideas. We needed out. Thanksgiving had overwhelmed us. So we piled into the Suburban, in search of sanctuary, solitude. The Greenwich cliffs are hidden deep in back-country. And like so much in today’s wild, they’re forbidden. So we whispered our way through the woods, Wolfie and Shackleton sniffing for squirrels. Blazing our own twisted trail, freshly fallen leaves in our wake. Now, truth be told, cliff jumping in November was not the first thing that sprang to my mind. But having learned a thing or two about parenting, I know that in certain situations there’s no better time to say yes than when they think you’ll say no. Without overthinking it, I’d instinctively agreed. Electrifying us all. We first went cliff-jumping in October, on my 49th birthday. The sun bright, leaves brilliant red, yellow. Our screams rippling across the lake. The water unknown, cold. So with some mornings now blanketed in frost, we worked ourselves into a frenzy imagining the polar plunge. The cliff-top neared, the wind picked up, driving rain through the forest, drenching the dogs – we squealed with nervous excitement. Children allow us to relive life, if only we let them. And when we do, they help us see things all over again, afresh, the world anew, their gift. “My nuts are gonna turn to ice cubes!” shrieked Teddy, laughing, kind of. I stripped down. “Whatever you do, don’t overthink it,” I hollered, my greatest advice, the story of my life. They followed in rapid succession, my little lemmings. Screams echoed. The frigid water paralyzed our lungs. Fired our hearts. Breathed life. And what was once a quiet November lake, was somehow something new.

 

Good luck out there,

Eric Peters

Chief Investment Officer

One River Asset Management

 

 

 

Disclaimer: All characters and events contained herein are entirely fictional. Even those things that appear based on real people and actual events are products of the author’s imagination. Any similarity is merely coincidental. The numbers are unreliable. The statistics too. Consequently, this message does not contain any investment recommendation, advice, or solicitation of any sort for any product, fund or service. The views expressed are strictly those of the author, even if often times they are not actually views held by the author, or directly contradict those views genuinely held by the author. And the views may certainly differ from those of any firm or person that the author may advise, converse with, or otherwise be associated with. Lastly, any inappropriate language, innuendo or dark humor contained herein is not specifically intended to offend the reader. And besides, nothing could possibly be more offensive than the real-life actions of the inept policy makers, corrupt elected leaders and short, paranoid dictators who infest our little planet. Yet we suffer their indignities every day. Oh yeah, past performance is not indicative of future returns.

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